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June Obs/Disco Thread


George BM

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I'll wager that the circulation remnants have a 10,000 percent chance of being well north of N VA overnight --- and so then when the front passes, N VA will end up with the skinny south part of that front precip ---- and another seven hundredths of an inch of rain overnight lmao.

Maryland and south Pennsylvania - Get that ARK built by 1am Saturday. You're gonna need it! North and west of that center of remnant circulation is going to get absolutely drowned - and there will be NO air at all, some communities in that blob will see upwards of 6-9 inches of rain! These are warm cloud processes in play, and they will be super efficient rain producers.

Well south of the remnant center of circulation will see light showers as the front passes. The forcing is all NORTH of the remnant center of circulation. Dale City will get light drizzle. 

We're used to this by now. We'll get our heavy accumulating rain in January when we crave snow.

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5 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Gotta like the incredible 850 moisture transport even if there are NO storms.

tran.gif

All that moisture - and Dale City will get about a third of an inch of rain TOTAL from it. Gotta love the hyperbole of the meteorological aspects of this incredible system - and the upper 70s dewpoints, while Dale City gets minimal rain lmao. This aint our summer, but it damn sure IS a full-on Maryland and Pennsylvania summer, where you will find plentiful rains and emerald green tree foliage and lawns - all summer long and well beyond.

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Picked up a quarter inch with the showers this morning. Models have really backed off on any heavy rain for here tonight into tomorrow. No complaints as I have gotten over 2 inches since Monday. Good luck to folks in central and N MD. Looks pretty decent for those locations.

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3 hours ago, Jebman said:

All that moisture - and Dale City will get about a third of an inch of rain TOTAL from it. Gotta love the hyperbole of the meteorological aspects of this incredible system - and the upper 70s dewpoints, while Dale City gets minimal rain lmao. This aint our summer, but it damn sure IS a full-on Maryland and Pennsylvania summer, where you will find plentiful rains and emerald green tree foliage and lawns - all summer long and well beyond.

It always is.

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2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yep.  This has complete bust written all over it.  Forecast now down to chance of 1/2" tonight.  

And this is the last chance of rain for at least a week.

At least it'll be more comfortable for a few days, but we will be parched.

Hows the rain out there?

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I'll definitely get one tenth of an inch, but as has been the case many times this very late spring and very early summer, this system will clip Dale City.

CONGRATS to Maryland and Pennsylvania on plentiful rains tonight, they will get the lions share of that HUGE BROBDINGNAGIAN BLOB of rain overnight.

I am frigging jealous as all hell!!

Dale City is just a little bit too far south this time around, and I suspect, we will be many dozens of times around throughout the rest of 2017, including the Winter of 2017-2018.

Enjoy your vivid emerald award-winning lawns and tree foliage Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Dale City will make do with the tumbleweeds all summer and fall and winter.

The southern part of the blob of rain is rapidly drying out as of 118am, which is no surprise. I should get about 5 minutes of light rain/drizzle then clearing, which should amount to one four thousand ninety sixth of an inch of badly needed rain.

 

 

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So far, light rain, maybe one hundredth of an inch of rain.

NWS got one thing correct: It did rain, albeit very lightly. Point and click declared HEAVY RAIN tonight for Dale City. That was a bit of a hype. NWS should have forecast 50 percent chance of showers in Dale City tonight, less than a tenth of an inch of accumulation of rain.. I got less than a tenth of an inch worth of light rain, more like a thousandth of an inch tonight. Given the setup, particularly heavy rain is not indicated east of the mountains when the moisture is coming from the west, and the center of remnant circulation is NORTH/NORTHWEST of my backyard..

Go back to met school  for 78 million years, KLWX. I'm only a rain weenie and even I KNOW that tropical moisture coming from the WEST tends to be light east of the mountains. Repeat after me KLWX forecasters: Areas NORTH AND WEST of the center of circulation end up with heavy rain in these types of tropical remnant setups, areas south and east of the center of circulation get light rain in these types of setups. Go sit at the blackboard and write that 50,000 times.

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594e10e19ba31_ScreenHunter_26884Jun_2403_11.thumb.jpg.0ccd71671b853c94337fc3d35e8dcde9.jpgAnd that is that as of 3am, system is moving east. We got a couple hundredths of an inch. Wow, heavy tropical rain.  Excellent weather forecast, KLWX, right on the fooking money!!!!  2.31 inches precipitable waters, KLWX forecasters! Incredible moisture transport! All this and still very light rain for Dale City! Pennsylvania got smashed up by torrential rain because that area was well north and west of the center of circulation of the tropical remnants. Dale City was well southeast, so we got screwed over with very light rain. Should be mostly clear by 430am, rush hour in DC will be smooth as silk.

That was STRIKE FOUR for Dale City. We will have dozens more of these for the next 6-10 months.

DROUGHT continues in Dale City, everything will dry out. Heck maybe by late October, you can walk across the Potomac River in places on top of rocks jutting out. Water restrictions should be in place by early August, no more watering lawns.

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