My Summer Outlook 2017

[Isotherm]

Somewhat truncated this year. Comments and/or questions are welcome:

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

[griteater]

You do a good job with your outlooks.  Thanks for posting and good luck with your forecast.

[Isotherm]

Thanks grit! Appreciate it.

[Isotherm]

Verification: 

 

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

 

June-July-August US temperature anomalies:

June-July-August US precipitation anomalies:

Northeastern US temperature anomalies:

Northeastern US precipitation anomalies:

Temperature departures for the summer for Northeastern cities:

DCA: +1.1
NYC: -0.1
BOS: +0.3
PHL: +0.4
EWR: -0.5
JFK: +0.3
LGA: +0.4
ISP: +0.5
BDR: +0.9

NYC area average: +0.5

Immediate NYC area average (EWR, LGA, JFK, NYC): 0.0

Forecast was -0.25 to +0.75 for temperature departures.

NYC precip: 12.3″
EWR precip: 15.14″

The ideas that the hottest part of summer relative to normal would occur in July, with cooling in August, as well as the overall summer being very close to normal temperature wise verified. Both the temperature and precipitation outlook for the CONUS as a whole closely mirrored the outlook. The coolest zone was across the Great Lakes with the hottest region the West, as anticipated. Flaws in the outlook included more rain than expected in the Deep South (particularly due to Harvey – very difficult to anticipate), and less rain than anticipated in coastal New England. Otherwise, both the progression and overall expectations went essentially as prognosticated.

Given temperature departures fell within the expected, narrow range, and precipitation production was above normal for most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, this long range outlook will be considered a success.

Final grade for the Summer Outlook 2017: A