My Summer Outlook 2017

[Isotherm]

Somewhat truncated this year. Comments and/or questions are welcome:

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

[BombsAway1288]

15 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Somewhat truncated this year. Comments and/or questions are welcome:

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Thanks! Always enjoy your input. Hopefully you're right. We're overdue for a normal/slightly below normal summer

[Isotherm]

Thanks!

[frd]

On 5/28/2017 at 10:41 PM, Isotherm said:

Somewhat truncated this year. Comments and/or questions are welcome:

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

You are doing well overall in my opinion here. July most likely was the hotest month relative to normals , and the above average precip also a good call. 

 

 

[Isotherm]

7 hours ago, frd said:

You are doing well overall in my opinion here. July most likely was the hotest month relative to normals , and the above average precip also a good call. 

 

 

Thank you, frd. Still have 1/2 of August remaining, but meteorological summer is winding down, and I would agree that things are progressing very well/as expected for the most part. Will do official verification at end of month. Precip is always difficult given the convective mode in the summer, but most in my forecasted above normal pcpn region have verified.

[Isotherm]

Verification: 

 

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

 

June-July-August US temperature anomalies:

June-July-August US precipitation anomalies:

Northeastern US temperature anomalies:

Northeastern US precipitation anomalies:

Temperature departures for the summer for Northeastern cities:

DCA: +1.1
NYC: -0.1
BOS: +0.3
PHL: +0.4
EWR: -0.5
JFK: +0.3
LGA: +0.4
ISP: +0.5
BDR: +0.9

NYC area average: +0.5

Immediate NYC area average (EWR, LGA, JFK, NYC): 0.0

Forecast was -0.25 to +0.75 for temperature departures.

NYC precip: 12.3″
EWR precip: 15.14″

The ideas that the hottest part of summer relative to normal would occur in July, with cooling in August, as well as the overall summer being very close to normal temperature wise verified. Both the temperature and precipitation outlook for the CONUS as a whole closely mirrored the outlook. The coolest zone was across the Great Lakes with the hottest region the West, as anticipated. Flaws in the outlook included more rain than expected in the Deep South (particularly due to Harvey – very difficult to anticipate), and less rain than anticipated in coastal New England. Otherwise, both the progression and overall expectations went essentially as prognosticated.

Given temperature departures fell within the expected, narrow range, and precipitation production was above normal for most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, this long range outlook will be considered a success.

Final grade for the Summer Outlook 2017: A