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June 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Temps rising quickly this morning, current temp 71/DP 56,RH 62%

I think the hotter spots could reach 90 today

If these clouds can clear out, temps should rise pretty quickly.  My forecast for Monday is 95° so certain areas might touch 100°

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18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the eps would lead to a cooler outcome after the heat wave than the gfes. more amplified with the western ridge

It's funny how the past two major seasons (last winter) and now this late spring and summer have largely had patterns that resembled ENSOs that are the reverse more or less of what is in place.  The winter resembled a moderate to strong Niña and now the late spring has resembled a classic developing moderate Nino type summer despite the fact the developing El Niño really fell apart 2-3 months ago 

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nino 1-2 has come down from the high heights it was in but nino 3.4 was +0.6 last week and +0.4 for the MAM tri monthly period...The mei sky rocketed to + 1.455 for the April May  period...I thought that was wrong when I first saw it...

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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20 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It's funny how the past two major seasons (last winter) and now this late spring and summer have largely had patterns that resembled ENSOs that are the reverse more or less of what is in place.  The winter resembled a moderate to strong Niña and now the late spring has resembled a classic developing moderate Nino type summer despite the fact the developing El Niño really fell apart 2-3 months ago 

The +PDO has been having a continuing influence on the area. It helped us out this past winter push back against the predominant La Nina base state. It gave us more negative EPO activity which helped in the snowfall department despite the warmth. The strong ridge over the Western US in May into June so far is also a version of a +PDO pattern. You can see how the heat the next few days will be short lived as the ridge reemerges yet again over the Western US later next week. 

eps_z500a_5d_noram_41.thumb.png.4caf80832cd4d2f42f81c4bcec3100ff.png

500.gif.c5c51491751f94f0928209f11a851635.gif

pdo.png.3b61cc72c0c1780bf6ca338f10960491.png

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The +PDO has been having a continuing influence on the area. It helped us out this past winter push back against the predominant La Nina base state. It gave us more negative EPO activity which helped in the snowfall department despite the warmth. The strong ridge over the Western US in May into June so far is also a version of a +PDO pattern. You can see how the heat the next few days will be short lived as the ridge reemerges yet again over the Western US later next week. 

eps_z500a_5d_noram_41.thumb.png.4caf80832cd4d2f42f81c4bcec3100ff.png

500.gif.c5c51491751f94f0928209f11a851635.gif

pdo.png.3b61cc72c0c1780bf6ca338f10960491.png

 

 

 

 

Remember when the PDO was forecasted by someone to go predominantly negative after this winter?

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The +PDO has been having a continuing influence on the area. It helped us out this past winter push back against the predominant La Nina base state. It gave us more negative EPO activity which helped in the snowfall department despite the warmth. The strong ridge over the Western US in May into June so far is also a version of a +PDO pattern. You can see how the heat the next few days will be short lived as the ridge reemerges yet again over the Western US later next week. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like a back and forth type pattern for next  10 - 14 days, reminiscent of 2013, perhaps a bit.  10 - 14 hot, back to near/below normal (wetter) 15 - 25, then perhaps hotter again on/around 26. 

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