qg_omega Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 57 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: My main concern is with a trough over the eastern US along with an upcoming active hurricane season, that could very well spell trouble for the east coast. you would want the trough over the Midwest for east coast threats.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, qg_omega said: you would want the trough over the Midwest for east coast threats.... The latest Euro seasonal that came out yesterday is more bullish on activity near the East Coast ASO. Has a big ridge of high pressure across New England to Newfoundland with lower pressures underneath. Looks exactly like the new SST CA. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/cahgt_sstca.pri.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 I believe Bluewave said that the East coast was looking well above average rainfall wise over the Summer which would imply tropical threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I believe Bluewave said that the East coast was looking well above average rainfall wise over the Summer which would imply tropical threats. Look at it this way, the 2010's have been one of the most active decades for East Coast tropical activity. So I would tend to believe some of the seasonal stuff that implies threat potential as the season picks up. 2011....Irene....2012....Sandy....2014....Arthur...2015...Joaquin 1000 yr rains trough interaction....2016....Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Look at it this way, the 2010's have been one of the most active decades for East Coast tropical activity. So I would tend to believe some of the seasonal stuff that implies threat potential as the season picks up. 2011....Irene....2012....Sandy....2014....Arthur...2015...Joaquin 1000 yr rains trough interaction....2016....Matthew Matthew was such a close call. I remember it looked like we were going to get slammed then a whiff. On the island we wound up with a decent ammount of rain and trop storm gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Despite the cool, damp start places like EWR and NYC look to be below a half inch at the midway point of June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Despite the cool, damp start places like EWR and NYC look to be below a half inch at the midway point of June same deal up here...we've had very little actual rainfall-alot of mist/drizzle and light rain. The ground will dry fast with the sun and torch coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Despite the cool, damp start places like EWR and NYC look to be below a half inch at the midway point of June Wow, I had more than that in a thunderstorm during the early morning hours of June 1st. I guess it's because of the general isolated nature of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 41 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Matthew was such a close call. I remember it looked like we were going to get slammed then a whiff. On the island we wound up with a decent ammount of rain and trop storm gusts You never really know until the short term whether an East Coast H/TS will keep coming north past the Carolinas or recurve to our south. But it's interesting how these decadal landfall patterns set up. The 2000's were all about Florida and the Gulf Coast. That switched more to the East Coast for the 2010's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 i see the WAR building west on the day 10 eps... what happens after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i see the WAR building west on the day 10 eps... what happens after that? It never really gets further West as a trough reloads into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Some areas could see a thunderstorm this afternoon. HRRR has some activity moving across NE NJ around 2-4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 not much cold air with that trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: not much cold air with that trough It's not a deep trough, but it's enough to prevent the WAR from building into the East Coast. Temperatures look near average to perhaps slightly below. The EPS mean is fairly wet over the East days 7-16 and in the Western Caribbean, the Southern Gulf and Florida. Strong ensemble agreement on the recent heavy Florida rains continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Don't be surprised if you wake up to some light rain or clouds tomorrow morning. Looks like there will be a weakening convective complex crossing Northern areas in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 GFS continues with the stormy look. Lots of convective opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 The 12z GEFS is similar to the 00z EPS which attempts to build in the WAR around day 10, however like the EPS the trough building into the Lakes keeps it at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 more like the WAR keeps the trough at bay... we never lose the positive 850 anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z GEFS is similar to the 00z EPS which attempts to build in the WAR around day 10, however like the EPS the trough building into the Lakes keeps it at bay. 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: more like the WAR keeps the trough at bay... we never lose the positive 850 anomalies wonder if we see a battleground where the 2 bump up against each other.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 looks like a good pattern for humidity/storms with a hung up boundary to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: more like the WAR keeps the trough at bay... we never lose the positive 850 anomalies It's ten days away, who really cares. It's going to change. 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: wonder if we see a battleground where the 2 bump up against each other.... That's kind of the way it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Current temp 79/DP 52/RH 39% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 the eps would lead to a cooler outcome after the heat wave than the gfes. more amplified with the western ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Way out there but the EPS mean has a sub 990mb low into Louisiana in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Today is the last BN day until? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Just now, Morris said: Today is the last BN day until? Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 The last two runs of the GFS have dews well into the 70's early next week with around 3500j/kg of SBCAPE Tuesday and lots of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Current temp 82/DP 54/RH 38% High for the day was 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Nice temp rise today from am low of 50 to high of 83 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 4 hours ago, doncat said: Nice temp rise today from am low of 50 to high of 83 degrees. 81/45 here. I have virtually 0 cooling degree days for June thus far because the chilly nights have been countervailing the afternoon highs. This was my 5th morning in the 40s in June; not bad at a time average lows are mid-upper 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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