uncle W Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: This paper describes how they do it. https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/normals/1981-2010/documentation/temperature-methodology.pdf This report describes the methodology used to compute daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual normals for numerous temperature-related variables at about 7,500 weather stations for the 1981-2010 Normals period. A climate normal is typically defined as a 30-year average of an atmospheric quantity, such as maximum temperature. However, advanced statistical techniques are used to account for missing data values, inhomogeneities, station moves, etc. and therefore the normals presented here are much more than 30-year averages. This report offers a preliminary description of all procedures used to compute the new normals for temperature-related variables. We intend to submit a journal article on this matter which, if and when accepted, would replace this report as the authoritative reference for the computations done on temperature-related variables for the 1981-2010 Normals. For information regarding precipitation-related normals or hourly normals (including hourly temperature normals), please review the accompanying documentation. As described by Menne and Williams (2009) and Menne et al. (2009), NCDC provides monthly temperature data values that have undergone robust quality control and standardization at the monthly timescale. For the 1981-2010 Normals, the approaches described in these papers were applied to monthly maximum and minimum temperature values that were in turn computed from GHCN-Daily values. Monthly values were computed for station-months for which no more than nine missing or suspect daily values were present in GHCN-Daily. The standardization procedures account for both documented and undocumented station moves and other changes in observing practices. Therefore, we give precedence to normals computed from monthly temperature data. raw numbers should be compared to raw numbers...Not smoothed numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2017 Author Share Posted June 26, 2017 42 minutes ago, uncle W said: raw numbers should be compared to raw numbers...Not smoothed numbers... Not if the raw numbers are corrected for errors. You can probably write the NCDC and ask them directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not if the raw numbers are corrected for errors. Not sure what you mean by smoothed. fa martin called it smoothing the numbers...I take my numbers from the national weather service or ncdc (thanks for the link)...the monthly and annual page for NYC are raw numbers?...the monthly climate from the ncdc are raw also?...where are the errors that were fixed and are they figured into the monthly average temp they post on their sight?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2017 Author Share Posted June 26, 2017 Just now, uncle W said: fa martin called it smoothing the numbers...I take my numbers from the national weather service or ncdc (thanks for the link)...the monthly and annual page for NYC are raw numbers?...the monthly climate from the ncdc are raw also?...where are the errors that were fixed and are they figured into the monthly average temp they post on their sight?... That's a good question. I don't think the NWS homepage reflects any changes that the NCDC might make after the fact for quality control. Even NASA GISS has raw temperature plots for NYC that get revised in later versions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: That's a good question. I don't think the NWS homepage reflects any changes that the NCDC might make after the fact for quality control. Even NASA GISS has raw temperature plots for NYC that get revised in later versions. my only beef is we are comparing what the June average is for a certain place and then compare it to a smoothed number...I looked up Newark's climate reports for all the Junes since 1981...I took the average that was there for each year...after the math it came to an average of 73.0...Now noaa has a June mean in its climate page of 72.4...That's a big difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2017 Author Share Posted June 26, 2017 49 minutes ago, uncle W said: my only beef is we are comparing what the June average is for a certain place and then compare it to a smoothed number...I looked up Newark's climate reports for all the Junes since 1981...I took the average that was there for each year...after the math it came to an average of 73.0...Now noaa has a June mean in its climate page of 72.4...That's a big difference... Yeah, but those monthly climate reports may have been amended by the NCDC so the actual corrected average is 72.4. Remember during that 30 year period new ASOS units were installed. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/climate-normals/1981-2010-normals-data Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations were implemented in the mid-1990s. As a result, there are inhomogeneities in the 1981–2010 underlying data records due to changes in observing practices. These inhomogeneities are accounted for to the extent possible by quality control and the standardization of monthly temperature values. See Menne et al. (2009) and Menne and Williams (2009) for more information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 What a magnificent day today! 850's of only 9-10C. Nice breeze. Low humidity. Not hot. You don't get nicer summer days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 3 hours ago, Morris said: What a magnificent day today! 850's of only 9-10C. Nice breeze. Low humidity. Not hot. You don't get nicer summer days. Similar weather way down here in central Georgia. Low dew and temps in mid 80s. Very comfortable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 Was it suppose to rain? It's coming down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Was it suppose to rain? It's coming down here Yeah was surprised a little.. 0.24" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 0.18" in the park. 61/60 now. Didn't know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2017 Author Share Posted June 27, 2017 Marginal severe threat today especially northern parts of the area with great lapse rates. ...Eastern New York/Southern New England... An upper-level trough will move across the lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Northeast. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to set up across western parts of southern New England this afternoon where surface dewpoints should be in the 50s F. This will allow a corridor of instability to develop around midday with thunderstorms initiating along the front. This convection is forecast to move eastward across southern New England this afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z in southern New England show 0-6 km shear around 45 kt with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This may be enough for storm rotation within the stronger cells. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 Nasty accident involving two trucks on the LIE. Always a crash in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 Low of 60 in the park. Rain helped bust the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 Looks like another line of wetness is on the way. Bummer... We can't seem to go more than 36 hours at a time without rain, it's getting tiresome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 36 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Looks like another line of wetness is on the way. Bummer... We can't seem to go more than 36 hours at a time without rain, it's getting tiresome That line is decaying pretty quickly... probably won't be much left of it when it reaches us. I'm not too sold on storm coverage later so maybe most of us can stay dry for the balance of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 2 hours ago, Cfa said: Nasty accident involving two trucks on the LIE. Always a crash in the rain. Rainy days always pissed me off. The traffic was always worse because you'd get a bunch of people who normally walk to the LIRR or walk to the bus stop, maybe they live a 1/2 mile or mile from the station or stop. On rainy days though they'd all drive instead and you end up with 10-20% more cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 Pouring here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 For Channel 7 to be calling today an 'Accuweather Alert Day' doesn't pass the smell test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 52 minutes ago, tmagan said: For Channel 7 to be calling today an 'Accuweather Alert Day' doesn't pass the smell test. fake weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 Thunderstorms just North or Port Jefferson. Had great outflow wind blast here. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 17 minutes ago, bkviking said: Thunderstorms just North or Port Jefferson. Had great outflow wind blast here. Beautiful For a time I could see the t storm moving near Stamford CT and over the Sound. Big billow clouds just ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Looks like a cool night is on the way for the Northwest burbs. My forecast low is 54° From Mt. Holly: Quote Thereafter, large-scale descent should begin in earnest, with skies rapidly clearing out and the low levels drying out through the rest of the night. With relatively light winds, temperatures should fall well below average overnight. Lows are forecast to be near 50 in the Poconos and near 60 on the coast and in the urban corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Crazy hailers in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Updated thoughts from Mt. Holly: Quote Skies are already starting to clear out and we should see some drying occur as a more westerly flow is in place overnight. Some low level moisture may linger a bit in areas where rain fell through this evening, and some light patchy fog might develop towards daybreak. Light winds overnight combined with the clearing skies will allow for good radiational cooling to take place. Already starting to see some indication of this with 9pm temperatures already falling in Millville (65) and Somerville (63) and Andover (61). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Picked up 0.18" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 47 in Westhampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 52/48. Coolest morning for the forseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Dropped down to 45F, now up through the low 50s as the steam starts dissipating off the ponds. There are definitely chilly June mornings sometimes but mid-40s is remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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