NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Going to be in the Southern Poconos (just NW of Allentown) for tonight and tomorrow. More rain for there or for the NYC-Western Long Island area? I think that Northern NJ into Orange/Rockland is going to be the place to be but I would favor the Poconos over Eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 If this were to be a sunny day I'd say 95+ would be in the bag...83/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think that Northern NJ into Orange/Rockland is going to be the place to be but I would favor the Poconos over Eastern areas. I'm going to be traveling through Rte 80 so I might run into that. I'm leaving here around 9 PM tonight and will likely be on Rte 80 from about 11 PM to 1 AM. Are the heaviest rains going to be there around that time? I hope I don't have problems with visibility or flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Tropical airmass in full effect. 82/71 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 26 minutes ago, Paragon said: As our climate moves forward, we should be seeing more of these as the moisture content of our lower atmosphere is increasing (just look at how many 2+ inch rainfall events we have had and 20+ inch snowstorms.) It's the only thing that could hold back 100+ highs from occurring more often in the future, but I don't see that doing so for long- we'll just see more 100+ days with higher humidity in the future. Very wet, very hot, very humid summers in our future with the heat season extending outward to include April, May and September and very stagnant and slow moving features, both in the summer and the winter. Today would have been an easy mid to upper 90's day with full sun. LGA just missed another 80 minimum this morning coming in at 79 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Very muggy out there this morning, current temp 78/DP 73/RH 83% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 This weather blows. I mean who enjoys this stuff! 81 degrees with 75% humidity at 8:50 am feels like hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 43 minutes ago, Paragon said: BW, when did this thing start about the summer solstice being the longest day of the year? It's actually not. The summer solstice just signifies the largest angle of the sun relative to the horizon at solar soon (just like the winter solstice signifies the smallest.) Afternoons continue to get longer as our latest sunset isn't until early July. I remember Forky posted something about that last year. I believe the latest sunset is 8:31 pm which is now, then stays steady at 8:31 till early July. However the sunrise gets later beginning now. it was 5:24 this morning, 5:25 am tomorrow...5:30am around July 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, dWave said: I believe the latest sunset is 8:31 pm which is now, then stays steady at 8:31 till early July. However the sunrise gets later beginning now. it was 5:24 this morning, 5:25 am tomorrow...5:30am around July 4. The longest day was June 20th the sunset is at its latest which is 8:31 but the sunrise is losing some seconds each day so yeah technically science tells us that June 20th is the longest day if you count from sunrise to sunset. As you can see you lose less than a second on June 21st so this makes June 20th the longest day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 23 minutes ago, dWave said: I believe the latest sunset is 8:31 pm which is now, then stays steady at 8:31 till early July. However the sunrise gets later beginning now. it was 5:24 this morning, 5:25 am tomorrow...5:30am around July 4. Thanks, that's really interesting. I wonder why that asymmetry exists between sunrise and sunset time changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: The longest day was June 20th the sunset is at its latest which is 8:31 but the sunrise is losing some seconds each day so yeah technically science tells us that June 20th is the longest day if you count from sunrise to sunset. As you can see you lose less than a second on June 21st so this makes June 20th the longest day! Thanks for the graphic! So 8:31 is our latest sunset and that starts from June 23rd and stays like that through early July? Looks like sunrises were getting later even before June 18th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 33 minutes ago, dWave said: I believe the latest sunset is 8:31 pm which is now, then stays steady at 8:31 till early July. However the sunrise gets later beginning now. it was 5:24 this morning, 5:25 am tomorrow...5:30am around July 4. Yep, this is lost on most. Its the same thing with the winter solstice when the earliest sunset is in the first week of December, by the time winter actually starts sunset has already gained a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 per the 6z models this thing even looks to be cleared out of the metro area by about 9am or so we may well have a sunny saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 1 minute ago, christhesnowman said: per the 6z models this thing even looks to be cleared out of the metro area by about 9am or so we may well have a sunny saturday Very fast mover. Alot of it comes today as well-another case of in earlier and out earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: As our climate moves forward, we should be seeing more of these as the moisture content of our lower atmosphere is increasing (just look at how many 2+ inch rainfall events we have had and 20+ inch snowstorms.) It's the only thing that could hold back 100+ highs from occurring more often in the future, but I don't see that doing so for long- we'll just see more 100+ days with higher humidity in the future. Very wet, very hot, very humid summers in our future with the heat season extending outward to include April, May and September and very stagnant and slow moving features, both in the summer and the winter. This is one of the most depressing things I've ever read regarding weather. It's literally the opposite of what I want. And unfortunately, I also agree with your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, Sundog said: This is one of the most depressing things I've ever read regarding weather. It's literally the opposite of what I want. And unfortunately, I also agree with your post. I remember when we had "drier" 100 degree days like back in July 2010 it didn't feel all that bad, but rachet up the humidity and it actually feels like the air is mugging you. It doesn't even have to be that hot for the mugginess to get to you, I start having allergy and breathing problems with temps in the 80s with high humidity during the day and 70s at night. With more cars on the roads and higher pollution (hence the air quality alerts during that kind of weather) I can see a lot more people having these breathing issues in hot/humid weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Very fast mover. Alot of it comes today as well-another case of in earlier and out earlier.... I see it's already in Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Out of curiosity, what are you basing the increase in 100 degrees? Wouldn't this be more appropriate in the climate subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Paragon said: As our climate moves forward, we should be seeing more of these as the moisture content of our lower atmosphere is increasing (just look at how many 2+ inch rainfall events we have had and 20+ inch snowstorms.) It's the only thing that could hold back 100+ highs from occurring more often in the future, but I don't see that doing so for long- we'll just see more 100+ days with higher humidity in the future. Very wet, very hot, very humid summers in our future with the heat season extending outward to include April, May and September and very stagnant and slow moving features, both in the summer and the winter. It's also the case of minimums rising faster than maximums over the last 30 years. Today is a great example of this with the more impressive min than the max. The charts below are for the 5 boroughs of NYC and Nassau and Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: Out of curiosity, what are you basing the increase in 100 degrees? Wouldn't this be more appropriate in the climate subforum? No because it affects every day weather and you can see from bluewaves graphs there's been an indisputable increase the past 30 years. You can debate the cause in the climate subforum I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: Out of curiosity, what are you basing the increase in 100 degrees? Wouldn't this be more appropriate in the climate subforum? Based on climate projections. We're already starting to see it when comparing the 90s/00s/10s vs the 60s/70s/80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Some breaks in the clouds and peaks of sun after noon-ish. Likely not enough to get event the warmest spots to 90 but should warm the area to an above normal day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 I see the graphs for NYC showing an increase, but I think a few of those years are skewing the mean in both the max/min charts. I also tend to think the UHI as a noticeable effect in the NYC metro area. I don't think it's enough to predict we will have more 100 degree days in the future (not sure when the future is implying, 10/100/1000 years); but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 EPS trending to a stronger WAR 6/29-7/1 which may be our next shot at an official heatwave. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: I see the graphs for NYC showing an increase, but I think a few of those years are skewing the mean in both the max/min charts. I also tend to think the UHI as a noticeable effect in the NYC metro area. I don't think it's enough to predict we will have more 100 degree days in the future (not sure when the future is implying, 10/100/1000 years); but time will tell. You have lakes in the Adirondacks that are frozen two weeks less during the cold season on average than they were 30 years ago. No UHI there. I'm not sure about the number of 100 degree days, but it's a logical conclusion one can draw from a warming world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 the 1940's had the most 90 degree days...the 1950's the most 100 degree days... decade..90+days100+ 1870's.......101.....0..... 1880's.........81.....1..... 1890's.......138.....1 1900's.......101.....2..... 1910's.......115.....3..... 1920's.......128.....2..... 1930's.......189.....8..... 1940's.......202.....8..... 1950's.......175...12..... 1960's.......181.....4..... 1970's.......183.....3..... 1980's.......195.....2..... 1990's.......197.....8..... 2000's.......123.....1..... 2010's.......143.....5.....2010-16...six so far in 2017...the 2010-16 average was near 20.4...the 2010's could become the leader in that department...It had a good start with 2010-11 being very hot...the 2000's had the lowest total since the 1910's...the 2010's have five 100 degree days to date...since Central Park went awos or awol there have been less 90 degree days on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: EPS trending to a stronger WAR 6/29-7/1 which may be our next shot at an official heatwave. New run Old run I had a feeling that cool air modeled would not make it here outside of a day or two-the WAR has generally been under modeled the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 30 years ago was also the depth of the cold shot in the 1970's. By 2020, we will lose the 1980's being factored in to the long term running average. Depending on how the present decade balances it, I would imagine the 30 year average will increase slightly, thus making the deviations less extreme than currently viewed. Stretch the time intervals long enough and you can achieve the result you want. Are we in a warm period comparatively to the 1970's, yes. But my point is, I think its fair to say it's possible there will not be an increase in 100 degree days over what we are seeing currently. As uncle pointed out above, the 1950's apparently had the most 100 degree days in a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 23 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: 30 years ago was also the depth of the cold shot in the 1970's. By 2020, we will lose the 1980's being factored in to the long term running average. Depending on how the present decade balances it, I would imagine the 30 year average will increase slightly, thus making the deviations less extreme than currently viewed. Stretch the time intervals long enough and you can achieve the result you want. Are we in a warm period comparatively to the 1970's, yes. But my point is, I think its fair to say it's possible there will not be an increase in 100 degree days over what we are seeing currently. As uncle pointed out above, the 1950's apparently had the most 100 degree days in a decade. You can't use NYC to compare to the 40's or 50's due to the incorrect sitting of the ASOS since the 90's getting blocked from direct sunlight. The area has experienced a steady increase in 90's degree days over time as the summers get warmer here. But there are still too few 100 degree days here to see much of a difference yet. But we have seen an increase in 95+ days over time. So once we warm enough for those upper 90's to regularly become 100's, that's when you will notice an increase in 100 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Central Park used to tie or beat LGA routinely in the number of 90s days until the 2000s where they started looking more like JFK, which is absurd. The park's location and current overgrowth make it completely unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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