WeatherFeen2000 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 37 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: No comment. Well anyone in the south jersey they should look out but anyone north of say Trenton has no chances of any severe weather and I don't even think we get even a shower out of this north of Trenton that is. To me clearly everything north of say Altoona, Pa the storms are weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: Well anyone in the south jersey they should look out but anyone north of say Trenton has no chances of any severe weather and I don't even think we get even a shower out of this north of Trenton that is. To me clearly everything north of say Altoona, Pa the storms are weakening. Read more, post less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 the euro looks like it came north with cindy's remnants but i don't have precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the euro looks like it came north with cindy's remnants but i don't have precip maps it actually looks very similar to the 84 hr nam (shown here) Quick mover in and out-best rains south of I-195 in NJ, one to one and a half inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the euro looks like it came north with cindy's remnants but i don't have precip maps It did, but it sends most of the moisture into the Ohio Valley where they get 2-3" of rain while most areas out this way see under a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: it actually looks very similar to the 84 hr nam (shown here) Quick mover in and out It's actually not a quick mover at all. It rains itself out over the Ohio Valley with not much moisture to work with East of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's actually not a quick mover at all. It rains itself out over the Ohio Valley with not much moisture to work with East of the Apps. Agree on that end, but the part that gets to S NJ is in and out in 4-6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 the gfs and euro both trended faster today. if it trends faster with a more intact mid level center we could see heavy frontogenic rain bands on the north side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Wow that needed a flash flood warning Southern Westchester northern Bronx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 5 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Read more, post less Funny, he was right. Not a even a cloud forget a drop of rain here. Typical summer pattern on the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Funny, he was right. Not a even a cloud forget a drop of rain here. Typical summer pattern on the south shore No he wasn't. Most of LI got a drink today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 funny to see a heat index so much lower than a temp like that......guess that's what 1% humidity will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Funny, he was right. Not a even a cloud forget a drop of rain here. Typical summer pattern on the south shore nothing here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 59 minutes ago, psv88 said: No he wasn't. Most of LI got a drink today I meant he was right about the severe threat. South jersey got slammed!!! And you always do well in convective setups up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 6/21 TEB:85 NYC: 83 EWR:87 LGA: 87 JFK: 86 ISP:82 New Brunswick: 90 TTN: 85 PHL: 87 ACY: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Jun Dep (thru 6/21) PHL: +1.6 LGA: +1.5 TTN: +1.0 NYC: +0.6 EWR: +0.3 JFK: +0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Funny, he was right. Not a even a cloud forget a drop of rain here. Typical summer pattern on the south shore Maybe where you live. There was plenty of activity. Convevtion is always hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 41 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I meant he was right about the severe threat. South jersey got slammed!!! And you always do well in convective setups up there He wasn't talking about severe. We were talking about storms. You're giving him far too much credit. Bergen and Westchester got dumped on today. The severe risk was marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Jun Departures of late (recent) Year: NYC/ EWR 2016: +0.8 / +0.3 2015: -0.3 / -0.4 2014: +1.0 / +0.4 2013: +1.2 / +0.9 2012: -0.5 / +0.0 2011: +0.9 / +2.0 2010: +3.2 / +3.8 2009: -4.0 / -3.6 2008: +2.6 / +2.9 2007: -0.1 / +0.3 2006: -0.5 / +0.1 2005: +2.6 / +2.2 2004: -0.2 / -0.2 2003: -3.1 / -3.2 2002: +0.0 / -0.1 2001: +1.5 / +1.5 2000: -0.2 / +0.1 1999: +1.7 / +1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 7 hours ago, SACRUS said: Jun Departures of late (recent) Year: NYC/ EWR 2016: +0.8 / +0.3 2015: -0.3 / -0.4 2014: +1.0 / +0.4 2013: +1.2 / +0.9 2012: -0.5 / +0.0 2011: +0.9 / +2.0 2010: +3.2 / +3.8 2009: -4.0 / -3.6 2008: +2.6 / +2.9 2007: -0.1 / +0.3 2006: -0.5 / +0.1 2005: +2.6 / +2.2 2004: -0.2 / -0.2 2003: -3.1 / -3.2 2002: +0.0 / -0.1 2001: +1.5 / +1.5 2000: -0.2 / +0.1 1999: +1.7 / +1.8 2003 & 2009 stick out like a sore thumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 16 hours ago, forkyfork said: the euro looks like it came north with cindy's remnants but i don't have precip maps ...looks to get ELI on Saturday but gone by Sunday..hopefully setting up for a nice beach day on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 The deep south is getting a really good drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 The 6z GFS Para is a direct hit for the tri state area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 12 hours ago, NJwx85 said: He wasn't talking about severe. We were talking about storms. You're giving him far too much credit. Bergen and Westchester got dumped on today. The severe risk was marginal. 20 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000said: Well anyone in the south jersey they should look out but anyone north of say Trenton has no chances of any severe weather look I was wrong a weak thunderstorm that I was in did roll by but it was weakening and it rained for 15 minutes moderately but it didn't thunder or have any lightning. South of Trenton got severe weather yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 June monthly average temperature from 1981-2010 in Central Park is 71.8...The fudged June normal is 71.4...If you use the June monthly average you must use the average from 1981-2010...it's like comparing apples to apples...each month's normal temperature is smoothed down a few points...The long range average temperature for June since 1870 is near 71.0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, uncle W said: June monthly average temperature from 1981-2010 in Central Park is 71.8...The fudged June normal is 71.4...If you use the June monthly average you must use the average from 1981-2010...it's like comparing apples to apples...each month's normal temperature is smoothed down a few points...The long range average temperature for June since 1870 is near 71.0... before 1930 June averaged near 70.1 in Central Park...The 1930's averaged 71.6 and that average has maintained itself till today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 north and wetter trend with cindy's remnants on the 12z models so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 22, 2017 Author Share Posted June 22, 2017 1 hour ago, uncle W said: before 1930 June averaged near 70.1 in Central Park...The 1930's averaged 71.6 and that average has maintained itself till today... June is the slowest summer temperature increase across the area over the last 100 years. +2.5 warmer in June than 100 years ago....July.....+3.4......August.....+3.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: June is the slowest summer temperature increase across the area over the last 100 years. +2.5 warmer in June than 100 years ago....July.....+3.4......August.....+3.6 I believe October is a slower warming month?...June has pretty much had a steady temperature since the 1930's...as of yesterday June is averaging 70.8...it could end up exactly normal or average since the 1930's... June averages from Central Park... ............................................................................... 1870's.....70.4...... 1880's.....70.5....... 1890's.....70.9....... 1900's.....70.0....... 1910's.....69.0....... 1920's.....70.1....... 1930's.....71.6....... 1940's.....71.5....... 1950's.....71.2..... 1960's.....72.0.... 1970's.....71.0...... 1980's.....71.7....... 1990's.....72.2....... 2000's.....71.3....... 2010's.....72.4.........2010-16 1870/1880- 2009 ave 70.9..... 1980- 2009 ave 71.7....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 22, 2017 Author Share Posted June 22, 2017 48 minutes ago, uncle W said: I believe October is a slower warming month?...June has pretty much had a steady temperature since the 1930's...as of yesterday June is averaging 70.8...it could end up exactly normal or average since the 1930's... Yeah, October is the slowest warming month for our coastal climate division which includes the 5 boroughs of NYC, Nassau, and Suffolk. Here is the 100 year temp increase for all 12 months of the year for NYC, Nassau, and Suffolk from 1917-2016. Annual average increase +3.3 Jan...+2.3 Feb...+3.9 Mar...+3.2 Apr...+4.2 May...+2.8 Jun...+2.5 Jul...+3.4 Aug...+3.6 Sep...+2.6 Oct...+1.6....slowest Nov...+3.8 Dec...+5.8...fastest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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