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June 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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6 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

I'm surprised there isn't a marginal risk for tomorrow for the OKX area.  Seems like all the CAMs initiate and the flow is pretty zippy in the mid-levels.  I'd expect isolated severe wind, maybe even a few small hail stones here or there given that that it gets cool pretty quickly upstairs.

Sure hope not. Golf outing with work tomorrow. Sun please

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Looks like the models have dialed down significantly on the cape for tomorrow due to dry air.  Interestingly, they're showing inverted-v soundings, almost like a western US look, so could be gusty downbursts with any storm that does initiate.

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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 Good soundings for strong wind gusts with the convection today. Steep low level lapse rates and decent shear with an inverted V sounding. The ESE storm motion will probably allow storms to stay in tact right down to Long Island.

 

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Not at all what I wanted to hear. I'll be golfing at crab meadow this afternoon. 

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6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

No heatwaves in site for the next 384 hours according to the GFS. Beginning today, daylight starts shortening. We lose about 12 seconds of daylight today after yesterday's longest day of the year.

no heat waves but I think we will get some pre frontal very warm days before it cools off...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

no heat waves but I think we will get some pre frontal very warm days before it cools off...

Interesting pattern so far with one heatwave in May and one in June. But they were really potent. LGA tied the May and June highest monthly temperatures at 97 and 101 degrees.

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If you look at the HRRR, oddly enough its showing CAPE at the coast increasing toward sunset, even after peak heating.  The storms in Central PA are initiating in that zone of slightly higher CAPE right now.  It must be some sort of tiny wave that's enhancing lapse rates as it passes by.

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