Brian5671 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Models coming in fairly dry next 3 days...NAM has almost nothing. Rgem and GFS a bit wetter, but not that much QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2017 Author Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It really pisses me off because those are the readings the media are using. pretty steamy in the city today. Glad I missed the heat wave The NWS pretty much gave up on quality control at Central Park around the time they moved out to Upton in the 90's. 1 hour ago, psv88 said: That's true. I think one of the reasons my neighborhood get so hot is the development around Commack. I live right in the middle of the main shopping areas in "downtown". I radiate well in the winter but bake in the summer. I'm also in a valley between dix hills to the south and west and smith town to the east. Yeah, the section of the Island from NW Nassau to NW Suffolk is usually the warmest during the summer. 1 hour ago, doncat said: Yes correct...The problem isnt because the station is in a park...As you mentioned the problem is foliage shadeing the sensor...The instruments are supposed to have a clear view of the sky with no overhead obstructions. Yeah, open areas of the park may even get hotter than some sections of the city under the big concrete canyons that are mostly in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, dWave said: A lot of times the Park temp will be close to the airports and some time in mid afternoon they level off while everyone else keeps climbing into late afternoon/evening. I think the sun angle gets below the trees later in the day and it effectively becomes like a mostly cloudy day there. Meanwhile that June sun keeps baking the massive open space of the airports I often see the opposite at my station...with woods surrounding it on three sides, my temp is slow to rise when the sun comes up due to shade and will lag behind other stations...around noon or so when the sun clears the trees, my temps will catch up to other sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 82... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 I'm thinking with a strong westerly wind, being in northeast NJ, even being close to Manhattan wouldn't affect your temps since any additional heat generated in the city is essentially downwind of you. Bluewave posted a great map that centers the UHI from Manhattan into western Brooklyn and northwest Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 the new euro delays any cool anomalies until next thursday and there's ridging building after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 3 hours ago, pazzo83 said: I mean - I'll volunteer to help. metfan should get some of his buddies to look the other way while i bring a hand saw to the asos area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 44 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the new euro delays any cool anomalies until next thursday and there's ridging building after that ENDLESS TORCH incoming. Once that cool water is gone off the coast, it's bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 85 today...some cool down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: 85 today...some cool down some were touting a return to cool and rainy after the heat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 4 hours ago, pazzo83 said: I mean - I'll volunteer to help. funny thing was the highs at Central Park and JFK are the same. I can confirm since I'm about 5 miles SE of JFK our highs the last two days have been 93 and 94- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The NWS pretty much gave up on quality control at Central Park around the time they moved out to Upton in the 90's. Yeah, the section of the Island from NW Nassau to NW Suffolk is usually the warmest during the summer. Yeah, open areas of the park may even get hotter than some sections of the city under the big concrete canyons that are mostly in the shade. In my opinion the problem is that it's in a park- because most of these ASOS stations are located in airports, so to be consistent and be able to compare station data to other station data, they should ALL be located in airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It really pisses me off because those are the readings the media are using. pretty steamy in the city today. Glad I missed the heat wave The "media" aren't meteorologists- the stations I listen to all ran with LGA's numbers (for example, Lee Goldberg, TWC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 4 hours ago, pazzo83 said: So can't someone fix the issue in central park? We have NWS people on here, don't we? The general public is too smart to think that Central Park's numbers apply to anywhere else in the city. When I talk to people about it, they laugh and say, " "it's a park, of course the temperatures are going to be lower there." They go by their car thermometers instead rather than whatever data comes out of Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 20 hours ago, bluewave said: This temperature swing just a week apart is very impressive at LGA. Going from a daily record low max to a tie with the all time June max a week apart is pretty much unheard of. The 2010's extremes continue unabated. Past analogs are no longer operational around here. MAXIMUM 6/7 59...-19 MAXIMUM 6/13 101......+21 Lowest max at LGA 6/6 59 in 2017 60 in 2004 60 in 2000+ What do you think of some of our climate projections, that New York City will average 3 100 degree days per year by 2050 and 10 per year by 2100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Some NYC-LGA comparisons for June 2017: LGA: Average high temperature: 79.6°; Average low temperature: 62.4°; % Days with High > NYC: 92%; % Days with Low > NYC: 77% NYC: Average high temperature: 77.0°; Average low temperature: 60.5°; % Days with High > LGA: 0%; % Days with Low > NYC: 0% June 2000-16: LGA High: 1.1° warmer than NYC; LGA Low: 1.3° warmer than NYC; Days with warmer high: LGA: 59%/NYC: 20%; Days with warmer low: LGA: 69%/NYC: 14% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 9 hours ago, Sundog said: Is it really UHI though if the 98 degree contour extended northwest to Rockland county? That whole Northeast tip of NJ is actually really green. they were wrong for JFK- they had 86 for the high and it was 94 here. Also, UHI doesn't have as much of an affect on daytime highs as it has for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 5 hours ago, bluewave said: I will bet more open sections of the park where the ASOS should be located were probably close to 98-99 yesterday. Central Park always used to run within a degree or two of Newark before they moved the instruments into the shade instead of the open where the rules for temperature measurement require. The ASOS should not be located anywhere near trees blocking the sunlight. Notice how the BNL thermometer while in the pine barrens is located in a clearing. BNL/OKX NYC Why were the instruments moved? That in itself destroys the climate record- which is why LGA should be used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 22 hours ago, bluewave said: Yes...it rose another degree after 100. So it's a tie for the warmest June day ever and the earliest 101. Remarkable following the earliest 80 degree min back in May. Now all we need to see is the first 90 minimum in the future. Came close in 1999,2006, and 2013 with those record 86 minimums. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/874734073331281920?p=p Well, we passed the century mark at LaGuardia today...record high of 101 degrees! (all records are unofficial) Funny I don't recall 2008 being all that hot, so I don't know how LGA got to 100 that early that summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 23 hours ago, bluewave said: Only the 3rd recorded 100 at LGA during June and 2nd earliest on record. 6/10/08....100 6/13/17....100 6/26/52....101 We were talking about how rare it has been for our area to get to 100 in June, but it looks to be more common at LGA than any of the other stations. I don't think my area has hit 100 in June since 1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Some NYC-LGA comparisons for June 2017: LGA: Average high temperature: 79.6°; Average low temperature: 62.4°; % Days with High > NYC: 92%; % Days with Low > NYC: 77% NYC: Average high temperature: 77.0°; Average low temperature: 60.5°; % Days with High > LGA: 0%; % Days with Low > NYC: 0% June 2000-16: LGA High: 1.1° warmer than NYC; LGA Low: 1.3° warmer than NYC; Days with warmer high: LGA: 59%/NYC: 20%; Days with warmer low: LGA: 69%/NYC: 14% Don, how does that compare with the first half of June 2008? Looks like LGA hit 100 early on that month too, and yet I don't recall that as being a hot June- or a hot summer for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: some were touting a return to cool and rainy after the heat.... Rainy, not necessarily cool, maybe slightly cooler than average which is still warm since we're entering late June. And it does look stormy with potential for topical impacts down the road. Just took a look and the ensembles show a dip in the AO and NAO towards the end of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, Paragon said: Don, how does that compare with the first half of June 2008? Looks like LGA hit 100 early on that month too, and yet I don't recall that as being a hot June- or a hot summer for that matter. June 1-15, 2000-2016 Data: June 2000-16: LGA High: 0.7° warmer than NYC; LGA Low: 1.0° warmer than NYC; Days with warmer high: LGA: 52%/NYC: 26%; Days with warmer low: LGA: 62%/NYC: 16% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Rainy, not necessarily cool, maybe slightly cooler than average which is still warm since we're entering late June. And it does look stormy with potential for topical impacts down the road. Just took a look and the ensembles show a dip in the AO and NAO towards the end of June. Based on what we've had in April and May and already in June, I think that agrees well with the pattern rolling forward. Rainy, but when it isn't raining the weather will be hot. Short but frequent heat waves of 3-5 days in duration and I doubt we've seen our hottest weather of the year. Even NYC should see multiple 95+ days the next couple of months and Central Park might even hit 100 sometime in the middle of July. Just going by how April and May and the first half of June have been. Overall the temp anomaly might not be that far from average, but I expect to see short bursts of very extreme heat this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2017 Author Share Posted June 14, 2017 29 minutes ago, Paragon said: What do you think of some of our climate projections, that New York City will average 3 100 degree days per year by 2050 and 10 per year by 2100? My guess is that we are heading for the 2010 summer becoming the norm here in the future. 50+ days of 90's and 3-5 days of 100 or more. The really hot years then could produce 65-75 days of 90 and 10+ days of 100. 25 minutes ago, Paragon said: Why were the instruments moved? That in itself destroys the climate record- which is why LGA should be used. I believe the instruments used to be located in the direct sunlight on top of Belvedere Castle. The change happened during the NWS modernization with the new ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: My guess is that we are heading for the 2010 summer becoming the norm here in the future. 50+ days of 90's and 3-5 days of 100 or more. The really hot years then could produce 60-70 days of 90 and 10 days of 100. I believe the instruments used to be located in the direct sunlight on top of Belvedere Castle. The change happened during the NWS modernization with the new ASOS I agree with that, the extreme heat of the summer of 2010 will become the average summer around here. Do you think we'll see that in our lifetime? And based on the kind of weather we've seen so far, I'm encouraged that we're going to see some extreme heat this summer, although the overall monthly averages might be close to normal. Rainy, but when it isn't raining the weather will be hot. Short but frequent heat waves of 3-5 days in duration and I doubt we've seen our hottest weather of the year. Even NYC should see multiple 95+ days the next couple of months and Central Park might even hit 100 sometime in the middle of July. Just going by how April and May and the first half of June have been. Overall the temp anomaly might not be that far from average, but I expect to see short bursts of very extreme heat this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: My only guess about the rest of the month here is that we have a shot a 90 or warmer this weekend as the WAR builds in. We get a drop in temperatures after that followed by another rebound last week of June. That end of June pattern could be our next chance at 95-100 degree heat if the trough really digs into the West and pumps the ridge here. I'm just going by region climatology, usually our peak heat is sometime between July 4th weekend and the end of the month. Usually when you see multiple heatwaves like this before summer has begun, it means we're in for a hot summer, even if it's rainy. 1983 comes to mind as another very rainy year with a hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: I'm just going by region climatology, usually our peak heat is sometime between July 4th weekend and the end of the month. Usually when you see multiple heatwaves like this before summer has begun, it means we're in for a hot summer, even if it's rainy. 1983 comes to mind as another very rainy year with a hot summer. June/July 1983 was on the dry side but August was wet...Who could forget Diana Ross singing in Central Park during a thunder storm...almost 3" fell from that storm in Central Park...That was also the night of my first date with my wife... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: The "media" aren't meteorologists- the stations I listen to all ran with LGA's numbers (for example, Lee Goldberg, TWC). That's actually not true, not to start a pissing match but Lee used the park and mentioned LGA definitly not a cool down in the city today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That's actually not true, not to start a pissing match but Lee used the park and mentioned LGA definitly not a cool down in the city today Oh, I thought you meant they weren't mentioning LGA- my bad lol. Who do they consider "official" though? I've heard Lee mention multiple times in the past that Central Park numbers were off from the rest of the area. Funnily enough, they seem to be in line with JFK/SW Nassau lol- except when we're on a W/NW wind then we're up to 5 degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.