Sundog Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Do you think December and April are the fastest warming because the cryosphere isn't establishing itself as well in the fall and retreating sooner in spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 odd presentation on the Euro-go 25 miles north or south and not much.... - with regard to that WAR, would bet next week is warmer than forecast just like this week....trough will end up weaker and further west as a result of the stronger WAR and we'll have a SW flow of milder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 On 6/22/2017 at 6:54 PM, Brian5671 said: odd presentation on the Euro-go 25 miles north or south and not much.... - with regard to that WAR, would bet next week is warmer than forecast just like this week....trough will end up weaker and further west as a result of the stronger WAR and we'll have a SW flow of milder air. Expand That presentation on the Euro is similar to what other models have been showing for days now. Looks like a narrow but heavy band of convection. Even the UKMET has it, just further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 On 6/22/2017 at 7:18 PM, NJwx85 said: That presentation on the Euro is similar to what other models have been showing for days now. Looks like a narrow but heavy band of convection. Even the UKMET has it, just further North. Expand Agree-it just comes down to where it actually sets up....good luck figuring that out more than 12 hrs out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 On 6/22/2017 at 7:20 PM, Brian5671 said: Agree-it just comes down to where it actually sets up....good luck figuring that out more than 12 hrs out.... Expand And then you have this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 On 6/22/2017 at 6:45 PM, bluewave said: Looks like the same general trend with storm tracks adjusting further north due to the stronger WAR. 12Z Euro Expand That goes along with my idea that us getting hit with giant snowstorms are ones which would have gone out to sea in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Looks like the 18z NAM is going to be another wet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 On 6/22/2017 at 8:13 PM, NJwx85 said: Looks like the 18z NAM is going to be another wet run. Expand Craps out as it comes east. Gives the best rains to S OH and into Western PA. It's almost like the precip dies over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 On 6/22/2017 at 8:36 PM, Brian5671 said: Craps out as it comes east. Gives the best rains to S OH and into Western PA. It's almost like the precip dies over the mountains. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 I was looking at the regular NAM. Wow at the HI RES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 On 6/22/2017 at 8:38 PM, Brian5671 said: I was looking at the regular NAM. Wow at the HI RES! Expand It goes along with that concept of a narrow band of strong convection. FWIW it has heavy early morning convection on Saturday which we always seem to over perform with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 That's a complete crush job for someone....incredible if it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Regular nam craps out and send the remaining rains well well north of most here. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 18z RGEM close to NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 GFS is drier but it targets the same area as the NAM and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 On 6/22/2017 at 9:49 PM, Brian5671 said: GFS is drier but it targets the same area as the NAM and RGEM Expand That's still well over an inch in most places. I wouldn't call that dry, it's a global model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 What is the timing? Will this be out of the city by 2pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 On 6/22/2017 at 10:54 PM, winterwarlock said: What is the timing? Will this be out of the city by 2pm? Expand looks to wrap up about that time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 6/22 TEB:89 NYC: 83 EWR:84 LGA: 84 JFK: 79 ISP:80 New Brunswick: 94 TTN: 89 PHL: 89 ACY: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 94? That don't look right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 On 6/23/2017 at 1:05 AM, Stormlover74 said: 94? That don't look right Expand NB seems to be running 1-2 degrees warm. Many spots hit 88-91 in C/SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Do the Yankees play Saturday? Timing looks dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Muggy 75 degrees this am...Last 3 days high temps.. Tues 86, Wed 88, Thurs 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 79 low in LGA. 77 NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 6z NAM shifted the rains south of the region, but the hi-res remains consistent on a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 On 6/23/2017 at 10:57 AM, Morris said: 79 low in LGA. 78 NYC Expand 5th minimum since Sunday at LGA of 70 degrees or higher. This week was a classic moist WAR pattern where lows overperform but highs underperform due to clouds and convection. The end result is more 70 degree minimums relative to 90+ maximums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 On 6/23/2017 at 11:33 AM, bluewave said: 5th minimum since Sunday at LGA of 70 degrees or higher. This week was a classic moist WAR pattern where lows overperform but highs underperform due to clouds and convection. The end result is more 70 degree minimums relative to 90+ maximums. Expand BW, when did this thing start about the summer solstice being the longest day of the year? It's actually not. The summer solstice just signifies the largest angle of the sun relative to the horizon at solar soon (just like the winter solstice signifies the smallest.) Afternoons continue to get longer as our latest sunset isn't until early July. I remember Forky posted something about that last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Flash flood threat today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 On 6/23/2017 at 11:33 AM, bluewave said: 5th minimum since Sunday at LGA of 70 degrees or higher. This week was a classic moist WAR pattern where lows overperform but highs underperform due to clouds and convection. The end result is more 70 degree minimums relative to 90+ maximums. Expand As our climate moves forward, we should be seeing more of these as the moisture content of our lower atmosphere is increasing (just look at how many 2+ inch rainfall events we have had and 20+ inch snowstorms.) It's the only thing that could hold back 100+ highs from occurring more often in the future, but I don't see that doing so for long- we'll just see more 100+ days with higher humidity in the future. Very wet, very hot, very humid summers in our future with the heat season extending outward to include April, May and September and very stagnant and slow moving features, both in the summer and the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 On 6/23/2017 at 12:03 PM, NJwx85 said: Flash flood threat today Expand Going to be in the Southern Poconos (just NW of Allentown) for tonight and tomorrow. More rain for there or for the NYC-Western Long Island area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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