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June 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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  On 6/13/2017 at 12:05 PM, bluewave said:

Fairly uniform heat around the NYC metro and interior NE. A bunch of stations reached 95 or greater yesterday.

97....EWR

96...LGA

96...BDL

95...ALB

95...PVD

95..BOS

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Agreed, all three "local" reporting stations (KMGJ, KSWF, KPOU) were in the low 90's again yesterday

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  On 6/13/2017 at 1:09 PM, NJwx85 said:

You're really annoying with this. We're coming off one of the wettest Springs on record and you make a comment like that.

 

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it's turned fairly dry since Memorial Day.    Only about .50 in most reporting stations in the last 3 weeks.  Will it last?  Who knows, but today's T-storm action went poof for more areas.   Dried out quick here and even some of the drier spots showing burn on the lawns....  Upton's discussion shows it unsettled this weekend, but difficult to say at this juncture how much rain we all get. Interestingly, read it elsewhere, but the theory was that the cool pool of water off the NE coast could lead to less Convection in the short to medium term.  We also have the WAR backing west which could set up the battleground west of us as the GFS shows..... GFS through 144 is fairly dry:

gfs_apcpn_neus_24.png

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  On 6/13/2017 at 1:19 PM, Brian5671 said:

it's turned fairly dry since Memorial Day.    Only about .50 in most reporting stations in the last 3 weeks.  Will it last?  Who knows, but today's T-storm action went poof for more areas.   Dried out quick here and even some of the drier spots showing burn on the lawns....  

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The rainfall has been more scattered since June first but it's freakin June for God's sake. We're not supposed to get much rain outside of convection which is always hit or miss.

And I highly, highly doubt we break this heatwave without some decent storms later. 

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  On 6/13/2017 at 1:22 PM, NJwx85 said:

The rainfall has been more scattered since June first but it's freakin June for God's sake. We're not supposed to get much rain outside of convection which is always hit or miss.

And I highly, highly doubt we break this heatwave without some decent storms later. 

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The one thing I would counter on that is that backdoor fronts often come through dry.    Forky also notes the mid levels are fairly dry with this one too.

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  On 6/13/2017 at 1:27 PM, Brian5671 said:

The one thing I would counter on that is that backdoor fronts often come through dry.    Forky also notes the mid levels are fairly dry with this one too.

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First it's not a backdoor cold front.

Secondly dew points are on the rise. Forky is taking the NAM as gospel. Even the RGEM has some activity. 

Yeah originally today looked liked there would be widespread activity, that's not going to happen, but that's the nature of convection.

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  On 6/13/2017 at 1:32 PM, NJwx85 said:

First it's not a backdoor cold front.

Secondly dew points are on the rise. Forky is taking the NAM as gospel. Even the RGEM has some activity. 

Yeah originally today looked liked there would be widespread activity, that's not going to happen, but that's the nature of convection.

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today never looked widespread, the forcing was always modeled to be very weak.

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  On 6/13/2017 at 3:25 PM, Brian5671 said:

It was odd how some people were saying it was too hot yesterday in the AM well before the highs of the day were achieved and then they ended up fairly close to what the para GFS had.

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Well it was mostly Ryan Maue who claimed the new GFS runs 5-6 degrees hot for the cities due to its new UHI adjustment, seems bang on to me outside of sensor placement issues.  Maybe its running hot for other urban cities but seems decent for NYC.

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  On 6/13/2017 at 3:38 PM, qg_omega said:

Well it was mostly Ryan Maue who claimed the new GFS runs 5-6 degrees hot for the cities due to its new UHI adjustment, seems bang on to me outside of sensor placement issues.  Maybe its running hot for other urban cities but seems decent for NYC.

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Yeah, it nailed the 97 max yesterday. It's just that it happened at EWR instead of LGA and NYC. It also did a good job with the 80 min at LGA so far today. I hope this means that the GFS cold bias is finally gone. But maybe it could have a warm bias we have to look out for at times now beyond the 72 hr forecast range?

DCFTSKZUAAE92O0.jpg-small.jpg.57532fa146d95fe0b39683907a71880d.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

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