Minnesota Meso Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Looks like the modeling is backing off somewhat on the idea of a nuclear cap over the Upper Mississippi Valley for Sunday evening just after peak heating. 850mb temps are now progged to be somewhere around 20°c instead of 25 or 26 and 700mb temps have come down to around 11° c over the metro area of MSP. Some models are now showing convection firing off along the northern edge of the best instability in a area where shear and cape will be supportive of supercell formation. Would not be surprised to see the SPC in their 4-8 day outlook paint a 15% risk for an area near to MSP. I'm working during the next few days and will be challenged to follow things closely, so please don't wait for me to start a new thread for severe possibilities, but the chance is increasing for all modes of severe Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Minnesota Meso said: Looks like the modeling is backing off somewhat on the idea of a nuclear cap over the Upper Mississippi Valley for Sunday evening just after peak heating. 850mb temps are now progged to be somewhere around 20°c instead of 25 or 26 and 700mb temps have come down to around 11° c over the metro area of MSP. Some models are now showing convection firing off along the northern edge of the best instability in a area where shear and cape will be supportive of supercell formation. Would not be surprised to see the SPC in their 4-8 day outlook paint a 15% risk for an area near to MSP. I'm working during the next few days and will be challenged to follow things closely, so please don't wait for me to start a new thread for severe possibilities, but the chance is increasing for all modes of severe Sunday evening. SPC holding off for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 8 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: SPC holding off for now. Well kind of. They do talk about it in the 4-8 day outlook. Quote Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large-scale pattern may become more favorable for organized severe thunderstorms early next week, especially across portions of the northern, and perhaps central, Plains. Medium-range guidance is in fairly good agreement during the day4-5 time frame with diverging solutions in respect to large-scale features and timing beyond Monday. In the wake of a strong mid-level speed max Sunday, heights are forecast to rise across the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes region. While significant buoyancy may linger near a stalled frontal zone across this region, rising heights are a bit troubling regarding the potential for organized severe storms. Even so, low-level warm advection into this corridor should aid the potential for robust thunderstorms. Will not introduce 15% severe probs due to the large-scale height rises but isolated severe is certainly a possibility with warm advection-type storms that evolve in the MN/WI vicinity. By day5 a more significant large-scale trough will shift east into the Great Basin as a strong 500mb speed max rounds the base of the trough and ejects toward WY/CO. Strongly diffluent flow aloft across the northern High Plains suggests favorable venting for significant convection near the Black Hills into southeast MT. Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across this region Monday. Beyond day5, an ejecting short-wave trough should advance into the northern/central plains which could induce severe convection across this region. However, models begin to diverge in their solutions by mid week and predictability is a bit too low to warrant 15% severe probs in the day6-8 time frame. ..Darrow.. 06/08/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Current LOT forecast has 4 consecutive 90+ degree days coming up. The last time it happened at ORD prior to June 15 was in 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Another June day with RH <25% at times during the afternoon. 84 didn't feel that warm even with full sun. Upper 80s tomorrow, and then 90+ for quite awhile per Euro. Parallel Euro looks even hotter for the DVN area than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Hopefully the light has finally arrived in southern Ontario, the 7-day forecast is perfect: at the 24ºC low - that would be in the top 10 warmest lows since I started tracking. 24ºC was my high for today. Its hard to beat a hot, stormy pattern in mid-June (I've been looking forward to this since the end of the heat last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Sunday Sunny, with a high near 90. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Monday Sunny, with a high near 91. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Could it be...? Summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 3 hours ago, Torchageddon said: Hopefully the light has finally arrived in southern Ontario, the 7-day forecast is perfect: at the 24ºC low - that would be in the top 10 warmest lows since I started tracking. 24ºC was my high for today. Its hard to beat a hot, stormy pattern in mid-June (I've been looking forward to this since the end of the heat last year). Endless dry heat since 2015. Can't wait to get back to high humidity - optimistic for storms too. Hopefully the lake breezes get cranking soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 The LOT forecast now has 5 consecutive days AOA for ORD. The last time there was a 90+ degree streak of that length prior to June 15 was back in 1977, and it actually was a 9 day streak that occurred in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: The LOT forecast now has 5 consecutive days AOA for ORD. The last time there was a 90+ degree streak of that length prior to June 15 was back in 1977, and it actually was a 9 day streak that occurred in May. Wow, neat fact. I think that would be the most sig heatwave for May at that locale for longevity ever recorded. I should check to see if a long stretch of warmth reached here that May. Tomorrow's high has been bumped up to 29ºC (33C humidex). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: Wow, neat fact. I think that would be the most sig heatwave for May at that locale for longevity ever recorded. I should check to see if a long stretch of warmth reached here that May. Tomorrow's high has been bumped up to 29ºC (33C humidex). Yeah it is the longest May heatwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 19 hours ago, IthielZ said: Sunday Sunny, with a high near 90. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Monday Sunny, with a high near 91. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Could it be...? Summer? IT would certainly help to make up for May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Yeah it seems a bit early for consecutive days well above 90. We overachieved today and broke 90. MLI hit 91. 92/95/96/96 in the point for Sat/Sun/Mon/Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 58 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah it seems a bit early for consecutive days well above 90. We overachieved today and broke 90. MLI hit 91. 92/95/96/96 in the point for Sat/Sun/Mon/Tue. If MLI puts together 3 days of 95+, it would be the first such streak to occur in June since 1995, but that streak came after the midpoint of the month. The last 3 day 95+ streak to occur in the first half of June was June 12-14, 1987 (96/98/101). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If MLI puts together 3 days of 95+, it would be the first such streak to occur in June since 1995, but that streak came after the midpoint of the month. The last 3 day 95+ streak to occur in the first half of June was June 12-14, 1987 (96/98/101). Interesting. And we all know how the rest of '95 summer went. The grass is really starting to look pretty fried. By early next week it's going to look like straw with all this heat and a continuation of no rain. Today was the 12th day in a row without a drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Interesting. And we all know how the rest of '95 summer went. The grass is really starting to look pretty fried. By early next week it's going to look like straw with all this heat and a continuation of no rain. Today was the 12th day in a row without a drop of rain. Feel like we'll do fine with rain by the end of the month, at least 2 systems with solid rain chances coming up within the next 10 days, the NW flow afterwards. Should hopefully get a wetter pattern going yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2017 Author Share Posted June 10, 2017 A 1995-like Summer, at least locally, would be great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 I got a few sprinkles this afternoon as some cells bubbled up along the front and scraped by to the north. Hopefully, Wednesday's storms will pan out. Models have been back and forth on the chance of convection along the cold front. Late week is a possibility as well. DMX this afternoon backed off the Des Moines temp forecast into early next week by a couple degrees, perhaps because they came up a few degrees short today. Now, it's only 97/98/98/96... brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I got a few sprinkles this afternoon as some cells bubbled up along the front and scraped by to the north. Hopefully, Wednesday's storms will pan out. Models have been back and forth on the chance of convection along the cold front. Late week is a possibility as well. DMX this afternoon backed off the Des Moines temp forecast into early next week by a couple degrees. Now, it's only 97/98/98/96... brrr. Only concern will be clouds in regards to temps. Sunday there should be a big complex of storms rolling through the southern half of MN during the day. Mid-upper level winds will be west to southwesterly, but if the convection is powerful enough the cirrus canopy could leak south of the mean flow for at least a little while as it sprays out. Something to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 12km NAM/3km NAM/HRRR/GFS are all way too high with surface dews tomorrow in areas beneath the incoming thermal ridge. The only model that seems to have a clue is the Euro. Pretty disappointing that the models with higher resolution than the Euro aren't more keen on picking up on the dry soils, and better mixing potential like the Euro. The HRRR has developed a tendency to be waaaaay too moist lately. Hope the wizards at NCEP make some necessary corrections to that model sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 3 hours ago, CCM said: I know it's the GEM, but... Toasty. 00z Euro extends the heat wave all the way into early next weekend. Extremely impressive duration this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Decent chance today will underachieve. LOT going 92 at ORD, but with UA temps not much different from yesterday and it being 77 at 10AM like yesterday, upper 80's seems more realistic. Probably holds true for many other areas, in the temps will be similar to yesterday. The ECMWF, which is showing several days of 90+, only has mid/upper 80's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2017 Author Share Posted June 10, 2017 Should manage the upper 80s here today, with less cloud debris locally, downsloping and what appears to be slightly warmer temps aloft. DTW and DTW are both at 83*F as of 12pm. Getting concerned about 90*F+ potential beyond Monday though. Latest models are insisting on the back door cold front making it down to the I-96 corridor by Tuesday and then stalling it out, which could initiate t'storms during peak heating as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Decent chance today will underachieve. LOT going 92 at ORD, but with UA temps not much different from yesterday and it being 77 at 10AM like yesterday, upper 80's seems more realistic. Probably holds true for many other areas, in the temps will be similar to yesterday. The ECMWF, which is showing several days of 90+, only has mid/upper 80's today. I agree, 92 seems too optimistic. Currently 85 at ORD, so upper 80s or perhaps tagging 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Powerball said: Should manage the upper 80s here today, with less cloud debris locally, downsloping and what appears to be slightly warmer temps aloft. DTW and DTW are both at 83*F as of 12pm. Getting concerned about 90*F+ potential beyond Monday though. Latest models are insisting on the back door cold front making it down to the I-96 corridor by Tuesday and then stalling it out, which could initiate t'storms during peak heating as well. I hope that happens, as for the temps today we will make a run at 90. It is already 85 at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Temps halted at 80 as of around Noon. TWC now hints upper 80s tomorrow since yesterday's forecast, yet seems a bit optimistic about low 90s Monday through Wednesday with any rain holding off until at least Tuesday morning of the upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Actually a few degrees cooler here in Ames than yesterday afternoon. The euro/GFS had hinted that we wouldn't mix out well and dew points are still in the mid 60s. Itll be interesting to see what happens Sunday and Monday here. Most places in Iowa haven't seen 100 degrees in at least a few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Monday or Tuesday may have a shot to reach 95 at ORD. The setup is sort of borderline though and if it had been wet recently, I'd say extremely unlikely, but it has dried out of course. Tuesday may have a slightly higher starting point than Monday, but I'd probably lean toward Monday as having a sonewhat better shot than Tuesday. Monday should still start out fairly warm and there is a bit stronger/more of a westerly wind component. Should be a close one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 89 here, which is the warmest so far of the day. Dews are only in the upper 50s. Dews in that moisture axis out to the west are generally in the mid 60s, which is about 5-7 degrees lower than most of the models had forecast. Scored another dust devil on the way home from work a little while ago. Was surprised to see one with it being so windy (gusts well over 30mph). Always thought they were more prevalent during lighter winds with less mixing of the superadiabatic layer. Also, screw tornadoes, just gonna chase these things from now on lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Joel bags two dust devils in a week! That one was a quick mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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