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June 2017 Discussion


Powerball

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5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We've hit 90 again today.  However, the dewpoint has crashed from the upper 60s this morning to the low 40s late this afternoon.  This week looks pretty nice before more heat and humidity potentially moves back in.  Rainfall is looking very sparse.

You're gonna get me started on the drought train soon :P

7dPNormMRCC.png.b1ec4d71a1a7d1d26eeebc1199714780.png

 

14dPNormMRCC.png.798d311503059e50040dc42af150f5be.png

 

30dPNormMRCC.png.76d05cddf58e069eda9a526cd6816602.png

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Publication on proposed new/revised definition for a derecho, for those who haven't seen it...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/corfidi/junCorfidi.pdf

Don't really have the time to sit and digest all that right now, but will read more in depth later.  I like the idea of not needing significant/75+ mph gusts to meet the criteria.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You're gonna get me started on the drought train soon :P

7dPNormMRCC.png.b1ec4d71a1a7d1d26eeebc1199714780.png

 

 

 

 

 

...Except for us. We have the drought deflector shields up in Huntington County, and just got another inch to 1 1/2" countywide this afternoon.

7dPNormMRCC.png.b1ec4d71a1a7d1d26eeebc1199714780.png

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Lmao at all the 90s, it was a comparatively chilly 79 here with a dew point in the high 60s. A pretty intense squall line moved through around 5, wasn't too crazy IMBY but a couple thousand lost power. All in all I'd consider this a perfect weather day, pretty close to climo for mid-summer in London.

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Warmest temp of the season yesterday at 93.  DVN hit 93 as well.  Back to back 90+ days.  Worked outside all afternoon yesterday, but it wasn't bad due to a decent breeze and lowering dews.  Really nice out there today.

Grass is actually starting to fire some in some of the sunny areas of the yard.  Haven't seen much of that the past 2-3 years as we've had consistent rains relentlessly through the warm season.  Our last measurable rain was May 28th at 0.06", and 0.46" on May 26th.

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There is no party. There is something missing though - interesting weather.

On the positive TWN keeps under-doing temperatures and getting the severity of awful weather aspect wrong. Yesterday turned out to be beautiful, today and tomorrow were at one point thought to be write-offs with rain but instead its just cloudy with sunny breaks (rarely though). I notice TWN rarely shows just cloudy conditions for a 6 hour block and the few times they have it didn't verify. 98% of the time when it was cloudy the forecast had rain of some degree.
 

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6 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

There is no party. There is something missing though - interesting weather.

On the positive TWN keeps under-doing temperatures and getting the severity of awful weather aspect wrong. Yesterday turned out to be beautiful, today and tomorrow were at one point thought to be write-offs with rain but instead its just cloudy with sunny breaks (rarely though). I notice TWN rarely shows just cloudy conditions for a 6 hour block and the few times they have it didn't verify. 98% of the time when it was cloudy the forecast had rain of some degree.
 

Agree with you on the overperforming temps. I like to call those bonus days. It's one thing to have a forecast of 80° and if only ends up being 65°... but if it's forecast to be 68° and ends up being 75° - B)

 

My Point forecast keeps bumping up a degree or two every time I look at it. What once was supposed to be a cloudy/showery/cool first half of the week has now been updated to mostly/partly cloudy and mid to upper 70's. No complaints here! 

 

Summer really showing its face starting Saturday/Sunday and lasting through the middle portion of next week - as of now anyway. 

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4 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Agree with you on the overperforming temps. I like to call those bonus days. It's one thing to have a forecast of 80° and if only ends up being 65°... but if it's forecast to be 68° and ends up being 75° - B)


 

My Point forecast keeps bumping up a degree or two every time I look at it. What once was supposed to be a cloudy/showery/cool first half of the week has now been updated to mostly/partly cloudy and mid to upper 70's. No complaints here!


 

Summer really showing its face starting Saturday/Sunday and lasting through the middle portion of next week - as of now anyway.

Mine for Wednesday just jumped way up too - it was shown for a few days to be 19 with a touch of humidex but TWN now has it at 23 all of a sudden. Its true that pattern from the PMX engine usually means it won't verify but I look at it as maybe it will bust low some more so 27 could be the high. A cold rainy day during this month has never yielded a overall good day in my experience so having zero of those, is a month to treasure.

Another good thing is almost all the rain recently has been falling in the middle of the night like summer 2010.
 

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8 hours ago, Stebo said:

Euro really turns the heat up after Saturday, especially west of Chicago over Iowa and Missouri. Even out this way we do get close to 90 next week, but out west it could be a week filled with 90s.

Yeah it's looking pretty hawt.  Euro gets central/southeast Iowa close to 100 a few days.  The ground has really dried out the last 10 days, and dews are forecast to stay generally below 65 through the weekend.  May see our first 100 degree day in Iowa/western IL if things continue to trend this way.

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46 minutes ago, CCM said:

Have fun basking in oppressive heat this weekend, no respite from the heat until July maybe.  

Been quite a warm start to June, and it's only going to get warmer. Been swimming since Mid May as well.

 

Sipping tea under the palm tree's.. I'll survive, will you?

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58 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

GFS looks quite a bit cooler than the Euro beyond Friday.  Guessing it will lose out to the Euro like usual.  

It has been ungodly wrong lately, not even on the same planet with the 500mb verification scores.

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

GFS is also too high with surface moisture, and has had the tendency to be too juicy the last few years.  It's about 5-10 degrees too high with dews across Iowa and surrounding areas right now.  That likely factors into why it's so much cooler with the surface temps compared to the EC.  

Yeah and it is still pumping out dew points widespread mid 70s starting as soon as Saturday.

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Impromptu "chase" this afternoon of a large dust devil south of town.  Was on the way to Geneseo when I noticed a large dust cloud ahead.  Figured it was probably from a tractor or something, but as I crested a hill I saw that it was a dust devil.  Of course I had to follow it, and found a little country road that lead me pretty close to it.  After I got closer I noticed it exhibited multiple vortices.  So, on the last day of my "chase vacation" I bagged something lol.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Impromptu "chase" this afternoon of a large dust devil south of town.  Was on the way to Geneseo when I noticed a large dust cloud ahead.  Figured it was probably from a tractor or something, but as I crested a hill I saw that it was a dust devil.  Of course I had to follow it, and found a little country road that lead me pretty close to it.  After I got closer I noticed it exhibited multiple vortices.  So, on the last day of my "chase vacation" I bagged something lol.  

 

 

Counting Crows... takes me back to the 90s.

Nice vid.

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6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

GFS is also too high with surface moisture, and has had the tendency to be too juicy the last few years.  It's about 5-10 degrees too high with dews across Iowa and surrounding areas right now.  That likely factors into why it's so much cooler with the surface temps compared to the EC.  

Would be nice to see that issue improve. It seems like it's predictably high (and by a significant margin) unless we're in the middle of summer with fully grown crops or in a moisture pooling situation. 

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