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June 2017 Discussion


Powerball

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Current indications suggest if you're looking for even a hint of Summer-like heat, you're going to be sorely disappointed for the foreseeable future (especially in the NE half of the subforum)

What happens beyond next week is the question though. Pretty significant difference between the EURO and GFS.

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Even that Dayton is yet to have days in the upper 80s, but I can see this June predestined to be the first one since 2008 to not have any 90 degree days the entire month. Other than a wet Spring, despite the one of the mildest Winters on record, we also may be feeling the effects of the Bogoslof volcano in Alaska that erupted 40+ times since December.

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12 hours ago, Spartman said:

Even that Dayton is yet to have days in the upper 80s, but I can see this June predestined to be the first one since 2008 to not have any 90 degree days the entire month. Other than a wet Spring, despite the one of the mildest Winters on record, we also may be feeling the effects of the Bogoslof volcano in Alaska that erupted numerous times since December.

That's interesting. I wasn't even aware of those eruptions.

 

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22 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

2001 is one of my summer analogs and that took until 2nd 3rd of June to start getting summery. Definitely a late lasting springesque pattern for sure.

fine with me, I really dont like 90 degrees and humid. I'll take 75/50 any day over 92/78. Cant stand high humidity unless we're expecting storms to come from it

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13 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

2001 is one of my summer analogs and that took until 2nd 3rd of June to start getting summery. Definitely a late lasting springesque pattern for sure.

Yeah I would have to agree with you. Looking into the long range the GFS has summer breaking into the picture about the second week of June, albeit only mid to upper 70's. Euro is "don't think so" and the progressive pattern continues with 5°C over much of the subforum through 196-230 hrs. 

 

Really pulling for a GFS outcome. 

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I was trying to look out into the weekend time frame to see how much rain might fall in Ohio. This image reminded me of a potential problem with the GFS. The GFS has abnormally high rainfall over Lake Erie in the warm season, and I really don't know why. Water temperatures are generally warmer in Lake Erie than the other lakes, and I think the GFS may be doing convective feedback, even on days when it's not super hot or humid. But I'm open to any other explanation.

aydQTVM.jpg

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Just read that Jim Madaus did his final broadcast Wednesday night, 33 years in Detroit and 42 years in the business. I always found him to be very knowledgeable and a great meteorologist. Here is a little story about him retiring: http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2017/05/31/legendary-meteorologist-jim-madaus-signs-off-for-final-time-tonight-on-cbs-62/

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22 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Just read that Jim Madaus did his final broadcast Wednesday night, 33 years in Detroit and 42 years in the business. I always found him to be very knowledgeable and a great meteorologist. Here is a little story about him retiring: http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2017/05/31/legendary-meteorologist-jim-madaus-signs-off-for-final-time-tonight-on-cbs-62/

Got me to thinking who in the NYC area who have 30+years of weather forecasting experience and there are two of them:

Nick Gregory

Mr. "G"

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We over-performed during the three-day "cool-down" early this week.  Now, we are expecting mid to upper 80s for the next few days.  We've certainly left the wet/damp period behind as well.  The Thursday-Saturday rain chances have really dried up.  Next week looks very pleasant, but by the end of the week we'll be needing some rain.

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Convection-allowing models, and the 12km NAM, all have some thunderstorms for the Chicago-Toledo-Cleveland corridor for tomorrow. The CAPE values are pretty impressive, but shear is somewhat lower, around 20-30 kt, not crazy shear or anything. So, a fairly standard type of thing for the summer.

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Warmest day of the year so far.  Been as warm as 91.  Dews have mixed back down to 60.  Drove out to my bros house about 6 miles NW of town earlier and hit a heavy shower.  Vehicle's temp gauge dropped from 89 down to 72 underneath it.

EDIT: La Crosse up to 96 with a 58 dew.  Gotta love the extra bit of mixing in that low valley they're in. 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Warmest day of the year so far.  Been as warm as 91.  Dews have mixed back down to 60.  Drove out to my bros house about 6 miles NW of town earlier and hit a heavy shower.  Vehicle's temp gauge dropped from 89 down to 72 underneath it.

EDIT: La Crosse up to 96 with a 58 dew.  Gotta love the extra bit of mixing in that low valley they're in. 

I will always remember the 108 they put up in July 1995.

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I am up in the air on what kind of June it will be, definitely see zero reasoning for the hottest June since 2012 though. I guess Ill predict temps end up within a degree of normal in the end.

I don't have a great feel for the month either.  The original poster's premise is arguable though as June 2012 wasn't even the warmest June of the past 5 in some areas. The first week of June 2012 was generally a little below average before the heat really got turned on later in the month.

Jun16TDeptMRCC.png.e3151bd157c358fc04bf04be0bc491ed.png

Jun15TDeptMRCC.png.650a44bab8c1c2a7d8e60b82518493bf.png

Jun14TDeptMRCC.png.e0852cb4c3f5811d19ac782ee217889d.png

Jun13TDeptMRCC.png.ccb353e05e7f7287c88e8427f386d00b.png

Jun12TDeptMRCC.png.c10c886dfd97b68f274fcbc51bd10a2b.png

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