June 2017 Temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

The annual race (updated in May thread) has RJay, blazess556 and DonSutherland in a really close battle with the chase pack not that far behind. Your host, however, is so far behind I might just wait at the finish line. 

Time for the June forecast contest, make a note, enjoy your Memorial Day long weekend and post some forecasts on Tuesday or Wednesday, it's still on time. 

Also, a reminder, there is a tropical season contest and that can be found over in the Tropical Headquarters thread. I know several of you like to enter this one, no firm deadline but penalties will start to apply (slowly) in June. 

 

For this contest, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010) for the usual nine locations:

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

Entries are due by 06z Thursday, 1st of June (in other words, Thursday 0200h EDT) and penalties run 1% per 2h late, to 18z June 2nd, then they increase to 1% per hour until they gobble up all 100% of the possible scores early on the 6th.

Good luck to all !!

[dmillz25]

DCA : +2.0

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.2

ORD: +1.5

ATL: +2.5

IAH: +2.0

DEN: + 1.5

PHX: +1.0

SEA: -1.0

[so_whats_happening]

DCA: +2.1

NYC: +1.6

BOS: +1.1

ORD: +2.3

ATL: +1.8

IAH: +2.2

DEN: +2.7

PHX: +1.9

SEA:+1.1

[Tom]

DCA: +0.6

NYC: +0.4

BOS: +0.2

ORD: +0.5

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +0.8

DEN: +1.1

PHX: +0.9

SEA:+0.2

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.1

NYC: +1.4

BOS: +1.3

ORD: +1.5

ATL: +0.8

IAH: +1.9

DEN: +2.9

PHX: +1.9

SEA:+1.1

 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.0      0.5       0.0             0.5     1.0       1.5           1.0          1.5    0.5 

[Rjay]

DCA: 0.0

NYC: 0.0

BOS: 0.0

ORD:  0.0

ATL:  0.0

IAH:  0.0

DEN:  0.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +1.0

 

[wxallannj]

DCA: +1.8

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.7

ORD: +1.5

ATL: +1.2

IAH: +1.2

DEN: +2.8

PHX: +1.7

SEA:+2.8

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA : -0.5

NYC: -1.4

BOS: -2.0

ORD: -0.3

ATL: +2.0

IAH: +2.1

DEN: + 3.5

PHX: +3.0

SEA: +2.0

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +0.5

NYC: +0.3

BOS: +0.3

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +0.5

IAH: +1.3

DEN: +1.6

PHX: +1.2

SEA:+0.2

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 0.3      0.3       0.1            -0.4     0.1       -0.2         -0.5        0.3    0.2

[Neckbeard93]

DCA: --0.9

NYC: --1.0

BOS: --2.9

ORD: --1.2

ATL: +1.4

IAH: +1.7

DEN: +3.1

PHX: +1.5

SEA: --2.1

 

 

 

 

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 -0.5      0.1       -0.8         -1.0      0.4       0.2            2.5        1.3    0.0

 Like this

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA...NYC...BOS   ...ORD...ATL...IAH  ...DEN...PHX...SEA

+1.5...+1.2...+1.4   +2.2...+3.0...+0.8   -0.4...+1.3...+0.9

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -0.4

BOS:  -0.8

NYC:  -0.7

ORD:  -1.6

ATL:  +1.0

IAH:  +1.1

DEN:  +1.5

PHX:  +1.0

SEA:  +1.9

[Roger Smith]

+0.5 __ --0.2 __ --0.8 ___ --1.3 __ +1.5 __ +1.7 ___ +4.0 __ +2.0 __ +1.5

 

[blazess556]

DCA: +2.3

NYC: +1.8

BOS: +1.2

ORD: +2.1

ATL: +1.7

IAH: +2.4

DEN: +2.5

PHX: +1.8

SEA:+1.3

[Stebo]

DCA : +1.5

NYC: +0.5

BOS: -0.5

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +2.5

PHX: +2.0

SEA: +1.5

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts June 2017

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

CCM ____________________ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.1 ___+3.5 _+1.8 _+0.8 ____+0.2 _+0.8 _+1.0

blazess556 _______________ +2.3 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___+2.1 _+1.7 _+2.4 ____+2.5 _+1.8 _+1.3

so_whats_happening _______+2.1 _+1.6 _+1.1 ___+2.3 _+1.8 _+2.2 ____+2.7 _+1.9 _+1.1

dmillz25 _________________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___+1.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 ____+1.5 _+1.0 _--1.0

wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _+1.5 _+1.7 ___+1.5 _+1.2 _+1.2 ____+2.8 _+1.7 _+2.8 

H2OTown__Wx ___________ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.4 ___+2.2 _+3.0 _+0.8 ____--0.4 _+1.3 _+0.9

Stebo ___ (-6%) __________ +1.5 _+0.5 _--0.5 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ____+2.5 _+2.0 _+1.5

BKViking _________________ +1.1 _+1.4 _+1.3 ___+1.5 _+0.8 _+1.9 ____+2.9 _+1.9 _+1.1

SD ______________________+1.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0 ___+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ____+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

 

Consensus ________________ +0.8 _+0.5 _+0.2 ___+0.8 _+1.5 _+1.4 ____+2.1 _+1.4 _+1.0 

 

Tom ____________________ +0.6 _+0.4 _+0.2 ___+0.5 _+1.5 _+0.8 ____+1.1 _+0.9 _+0.2

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.3 ___+1.0 _+0.5 _+1.3 ____+1.6 _+1.2 _+0.2

Roger Smith ______________ +0.5 _--0.2 _--0.8 ___--1.3 _+1.5 _+1.7 ____+4.0 _+2.0 _+1.5

DonSutherland.1 __________ +0.3 _+0.3 _+0.1 ___--0.4 _+0.1 _--0.2____--0.5 _+0.3 _+0.2

RJay _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

 

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

wxdude64 ________________ --0.4 _--0.7 _--0.8 ___--1.6 _+1.0 _+1.1 ____+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.9

RodneyS _________________ --0.5 _+0.1 _--0.8 ___--1.0 _+0.4 _+0.2 ____+2.5 _+1.3 __ 0.0

Damage in Tolland _________ --0.5 _--1.4 _--2.0 ___--0.3 _+2.0 _+2.1 ____+3.5 _+3.0 _+2.0

Neckbeard93 ______________--0.9 _--1.0 _--2.9 ___--1.2 _+1.4 _+1.7 ____+3.1 _+1.5 _--2.1

___________________________________________________________

With 18 forecasts, consensus is mean of 9th and 10th ranked (median).

 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

 

_______________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

_______ (7d) __________ --0.1 _--5.3 _--5.3 __ +3.9 _+1.0 _--1.1 ___ +1.6 _+4.9 _+4.0

______ (10d) __________ --0.8 _--4.2 _--3.3 __ +4.8 _+0.1 _--2.1 ___ +3.9 _+4.1 _+2.0

______ (15d) __________ +2.1 __ 0.0 _+0.7e__ +7.4 _+0.7 _--1.0 ___ +3.4 _+1.4 _+0.7

______ (18d) __________ +2.6 _--0.1 _--0.1e__ +7.2 _+0.5 _--0.2 ___ +3.7 _+1.6 _+0.5

______ (21d) __________ +2.7 _+0.5 _+1.4e__ +6.0 _+0.1 _+0.1 ___ +4.3 _+2.9 _+0.7

______ (24d) __________ +2.8 _+1.0 _+2.2e__ +5.5 _+0.1 _+0.1 ___ +3.1 _+3.5 _+1.4

______ (27d) __________ +2.4 _+0.6 _+1.9 __ +4.0 _--0.4 _--0.3 ___ +2.7 _+4.0 _+1.9

______ (28d) __________ +2.1 _+0.4 _+1.8 __ +3.7 _--0.5 _--0.4 ___ +2.6 _+4.0 _+1.8

______ (29d) __________ +2.0 _+0.4 _+1.7 __ +3.6 _--0.6 _--0.4 ___ +2.5 _+3.9 _+1.8

_____ (30d) ___________+2.1_+0.6_+1.8 __+3.5_--0.7 _--0.3 ___+2.1_+3.8_+2.0

Confirmed monthly anomalies are shown in bold type. Scores are being adjusted at a rather leisurely pace given that it's a holiday weekend here too. But I should have the tables updated fairly quickly as most of the scores are going to move in the same direction. 

 

Max only 52 on 6th at BOS. Probably colder in 1816 though (snowed then). Then 95 on two days within a week. Highs reached 119 at PHX and 99 DEN, 96 SEA. Seasonal max contest is being updated back in the May thread, I plan to move it into the July thread when that's underway.

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for June 2017

Scores are based on confirmed end of month anomalies posted above.

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS___east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent ____ TOTAL

 

wxallannj ________________ 94 _ 82 _ 98 ____274 ____ 60 _ 62 _ 70 ____ 192 _____ 466 

CCM ____________________72 _ 52 _ 94 ____ 218 ____100 _ 50 _ 78 ____ 228 _____ 446

H2OTown__Wx ___________ 88 _ 88 _ 92 ____ 268 ____ 74 _ 26 _ 78 ____ 178 _____ 446

so_whats_happening ______100_ 80 _ 86 ____ 266 ____ 76 _ 50 _ 50  ____ 176 _____ 442

BKViking _________________80 _ 84 _ 90 ____ 254 ____ 60 _ 70 _ 56 ____ 186 _____ 440

blazess556 _______________96 _ 76 _ 88 ____ 260 ____ 72 _ 52 _ 46 ____ 170 _____ 430

DonSutherland.1 __________ 64 _ 94 _ 66 ____ 224 ____ 22 _ 84 _ 98 ____ 204 _____ 428

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 68 _ 94 _ 70 ____ 232 ____ 50 _ 76 _ 68 ____ 194 _____ 426

RJay ____________________ 58 _ 88 _ 64 ____ 210 ____ 30 _ 86 _ 94____ 210 _____ 420

 

Normal __________________ 58 _ 88 _ 64 ____ 210 ____ 30 _ 86 _ 94____ 210 _____ 420

 

dmillz25 _________________ 98 _ 82 _ 88 ____ 268 ____ 60 _ 36 _ 54 ____ 150 _____ 418

SD ______________________78 _ 98 _ 64 ____ 240 ____ 40 _ 66 _ 64 ____ 170 _____ 410

Tom ____________________ 70 _ 96 _ 68 ____ 234 ____ 40 _ 56 _ 78 ____ 174 _____ 408

 

Consensus _______________74 _ 98 _ 68 ____ 240 ____ 46  _ 56 _ 66 ____ 168 _____ 408 

 

Stebo ___________________ 88 _ 98 _ 54 ____ 240 ____ 50 _ 56 _ 54 ____ 160 _ 400

Stebo ___ (-6%) __________ 83 _ 92 _ 51 ____ 226 ____ 47 _ 52 _ 51 ____ 150 _____ 376

RodneyS _________________ 48 _ 90 _ 48 ____ 186 ____ 10 _ 78 _ 90 ____ 178 _____ 364

Roger Smith ______________ 68 _ 84 _ 48 ____ 200 ____ 04 _ 56 _ 60 ____ 120 _____ 320

wxdude64 ________________ 50 _ 74 _ 48 ____ 172 ____ 00 _ 68 _ 72 ____ 138 _____ 310

Damage in Tolland _________ 48 _ 60 _ 24 ____ 132 ____ 24 _ 46 _ 52 ____ 122 _____ 254

Neckbeard93 ______________40 _ 68 _ 06 ____ 114 ____ 06 _ 58 _ 60 ____ 124 _____ 238

 

Final scoring for western and all nine contests, June 2017

 

FORECASTER ___________  DEN_PHX_SEA ______ TOTAL _________ All nine ( = rank )

 

Damage in Tolland _________72 _ 84_100 _______256 ____________ 510 ( =17 )

blazess556 _______________ 92 _ 60 _ 86 _______ 238 ____________ 668 ( = 3t)

so_whats_happening _______88 _ 62 _ 82 _______ 232 ____________ 674 ( = 2 )

 

Consensus ______________100 _ 52 _ 80 _______ 232 ____________ 640 ( = 6 )

 

Stebo ___________________ 92 _ 64 _ 90 _ 246

Stebo _____ (-6%) ________ 86 _ 60 _ 85 _______ 231 ____________ 607 ( = 9 )

wxdude64 ________________88 _ 44 _ 98 _______ 230 ____________ 540 ( =15)

wxallannj ________________ 86 _ 58 _ 84 _______ 228 ____________ 694  ( = 1 ) 

BKViking _________________84 _ 62 _ 82 _______ 228 ____________ 668 ( = 3t)

Roger Smith ______________62 _ 64 _ 90 _______ 216 ____________ 536 ( =16)

RodneyS ________________ 92 _ 50 _ 60 _______ 202 ____________ 566 ( =14)

SD _____________________ 78 _ 54 _ 70 _______ 202 ____________ 612 ( = 8 )

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 90 _ 48 _ 64 _______ 202 ____________ 628 ( = 5t)

Tom ____________________ 80 _ 42 _ 64 _______ 186 ____________ 594 ( =11)

RJay ____________________ 58 _ 44 _ 80 _______ 182 ____________ 602 ( =10 )

H2OTown__Wx ___________ 50 _ 50 _ 78 _______ 178 ____________ 624 ( = 7 ) 

CCM ____________________ 62 _ 40 _ 80 _______ 182 ____________ 628 ( = 5t)

dmillz25 _________________ 88 _ 44 _ 40 _______ 172 ____________ 590 ( =12)

Neckbeard93 _____________ 80 _ 54 _ 18 _______ 152 ____________ 390 ( =18)

DonSutherland.1 __________ 48 _ 30 _ 64 _______ 142 ____________ 570 ( =13)

 

Normal __________________ 58 _ 24 _ 60 _______ 142 ____________ 562 ( =15 )

 

[Roger Smith]

<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-June) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 22 for final June scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores January-June are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six.

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores

 

 1 DonSutherland.1 _____289 _294 _260 __843___302 _358 _399_1059__1902 _001.112.1.2_ Jan, May 

 2 blazess556 _________ 303 _303 _322__928___322 _303 _293__918___1846 __001.000

 3 RJay _______________248 _317_288 __853 ___243 _350 _377__970 ___1823__122.210..2..2_Feb,Apr 

 4 BKViking ____________250 _270 _290__810 ___261 _335 _268 __864 ___1674 __000.001

 5 wxallannj ___________ 261 _252 _300 __813 ___175 _317 _332 __824 ___1637 __002.011..1.0 _Jun

 6 dmillz25 ____________262 _251 _260 __773 ___262 _286 _308 __856 ___1629 __100.101

 

 7 Consensus __________232 _254 _235 __721 ___242 _321 _329 __892 ___1613 __010.000

  

 7  H2Otown_WX _______263 _270 _278 __811 ___192 _265 _277 __734 ___1545 __110.001..1.0

 8 hudsonvalley21______ 223 _233 _220 __676 ___254 _324 _279 __847 ___1523 __000.010

 9 Stebo ______________242 _245 _211 __698 ___197 _330 _283 __810 ___1508 __000.001

10 Tom ______________ 253 _247 _221 __721 ___202 _276 _291 __769 ___1490 __000.100

 

11 RodneyS ___________214 _210 _164 __588 ___243 _285 _383 __901 ___1489 __011.200..0..1 _ Mar 

12 SD ________________252 _255 _227 __734 ___244 _259 _248 __751 ___1485 __010.000

13 Damage in Tolland ___193 _215 _186 __594 ___260 _293 _288 __841 ___1435 __000.010..0.0

14 wxdude64 _________ 265 _214 _215 __694 ___202 _267 _254 __723 ___1417 __110.000..1.0

 

15 Normal ____________ 256 _243 _218 __717 ___209 _198 _238 __ 645 ___1362 __010.000.0.0 __ May

 

15 Roger Smith ________ 154 _177 _098 __429 ___130 _240 _289 __659 ___1088

16 so_whats_happening#_199 _157 _166 __522 ___138 _220 _203 __561 ___1083 __100.000

16 Neckbeard93*_______ 100 _140 _101 __341 ___244 _238 _260 __742 ___1083

18 CCM % _____________136 _106 _156 __398 ___146 _134 _126 __406 ___ 804 __000.100..0.1

19 Prestige Worldwide@__111 _107_123 __ 341 ____25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 

20 Maxim@______________80 _ 85 _ 78 __243 ____50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001

________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests January-June 2017

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 

 

 1 Rjay _______________ 346 _408 _493___1247 __ 1 0 1 _ Jan _____3070 ( = 1) ___ FEB, APR

 2 Roger Smith _________305 _383 _532 ___1220 __ 0 0 1_ Feb _____ 2308 (= 15)  

 

 3 Consensus ___________355 _399 _460 ___1214 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2827 ( = 5)

 

 3 wxallannj ___________ 330 _433 _450 ___1213 __ 0 1 1 __________2850 ( = 4) __ JUN

 4 H20TownWx _________375 _352 _441 ___ 1168 __ 0 0 1 _________ 2713 ( = 7) 

 5 dmillz25 ____________ 348 _349 _454 ___ 1151 __ 1 0 1 _ Apr _____2780 ( = 6) 

 6 Damage in Tolland ____ 272 _406 _467 ___1145 __ 0 1 2 __ Jun ___ 2580 ( =10)

 7 DonSutherland.1 _____ 381_393 _366 ___ 1140 __ 2 0 0 _________ 3042 ( = 2) ___JAN, MAY

 8 BKViking ____________279 _372 _484 ___ 1135 _________________ 2809 ( = 5) 

 9 RodneyS ____________332 _425 _370 ___ 1127 __ 1 1 0 __________2616 ( = 8t) ___  MAR

10 Tom _______________ 267 _401 _458 ___ 1126 _________________2616  ( = 8t)

11 wxdude64 ___________307 _342 _422 ___ 1071_________________ 2488 ( = 14)

12 SD_________________ 330 _361 _374 ___ 1065 ________________ 2550 ( = 12t)

13 Stebo ______________ 303 _340 _399 ___ 1042 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2550 ( = 12t) 

14 so_whats_happening#_309 _359 _372 ____1040 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May_2123 ( = 16)

15 blazess556 __________324 _353 _360 ____1037 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2883 ( = 3)

16 hudsonvalley21 ______ 289 _346 _394 ___ 1029 _________________2552 ( = 11)

 

17 Normal _____________ 290 _296 _382 ___ 968 _________________ 2330 ( = 16)

 

17 Neckbeard93* _______ 373 _ 241 _125 ___ 739 __ 2 0 0 __________ 1822 (= 17)

18 Prestige Worldwide@__ 159 _223 _170 ___ 552 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 1176 ( =18)

19 Maxim@ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ___ 440 __________________ 1055 (= 20)

20 CCM % _____________ 114 _094 _156 ___ 364 __________________ 1168 (=19)

 

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr)

@ three months played (Jan, Feb, Mar)

% two months played (May, June)

 

Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2)

 March late penalty deductions:

... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). 

April late penalty deductions:

... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18).

May late penalty deductions:

... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12).

June late penalty deductions:

... Stebo lost 39 (24,15).

 

__ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

[Roger Smith]

Extreme Forecast Update for June 2017

DCA (+2.1) missed out by 0.1 as third highest forecast was high score.

NYC is well inside our range of forecasts (+0.6) and will not qualify.

BOS (+1.8) is a win for wxallannj (+1.7) and a loss for CCM (+2.1).

ORD (+3.5) gives CCM a win at +3.5.

ATL (--0.7) oddly will qualify as our lowest forecast was 0.0 from RJay and Normal. 

IAH (--0.3) is a win for DonSutherland1 at -0.2.

DEN was near the extreme high forecast from me (+4.0) but finished a lot lower at +2.1. 

PHX (+3.8) gives Damage in Tolland a win (+3.0).

SEA (+2.0) is a win for Damage (+2.0) and a loss for wxallannj (+2.8). 

 

UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses)

 

RJay _____________ 8-0

DonSutherland1 ____ 6-1

Prestige Worldwide __3-0

Damage in Tolland ___ 3-0

Wxallannj __________3-1

H2OTown__Wx ____ 2-0

Maxim ____________ 2-0

Wxdude64 _________ 2-0

Dmillz25 ___________2-0

so_whats_happening _2-0

Roger Smith _______ 1-0

RodneyS __________ 1-0

 

Normal ____________2-0

Stebo _____________1-2

Neckbeard93 _______ 1-1

CCM ______________ 1-1

____________________________________________

.