janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Thought this deserved a thread of its own Some breaks in the clouds across the warm sector..as low strengthens to around 993mb winds fields will increase Enhanced risk over northern FL and eastern GA and NC...10% TOR probs and N FL and I think TOR probs may ne needed to be increased further north later too(5% now) AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2017 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL/GA/SC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ..SUMMARY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND TORNADOES. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ..FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST STATES AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY VICINITY. A PRECEDING VORT MAX WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN/MIDDLE OH VALLEY, WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH-BASED-EMBEDDED VORT MAX SPREADS EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TOWARD GA/CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH, A CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND SOUTH GA NORTHEASTWARD INTO PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS, WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE TO 40-55 KT FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 850 MB (OR 1-2 KM AGL) WHILE 700 MB/3-KM AGL WINDS INCREASE TO 50+ KT. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE MOST CONCENTRATED AND SEMI-FOCUSED SEVERE RISK SHOULD EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND SOUTHEAST GA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ALREADY EXISTS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IN TERMS OF AN INITIAL EARLY-DAY RISK, AS HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, A FEW SUPERCELLS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA IN VICINITY OF A REMNANT BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SOMEWHAT MORE BANDED STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL INLAND DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH FL INTO GA. ANY CLUSTER-PRECEDING SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS MAY POSE A TORNADO RISK AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A MORE CERTAIN POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER NORTH, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH STORM MODE LIKELY TO BE A COMBINATION OF CELLS AND BROKEN BANDS PER SOME DEGREE OF FORECAST VEER-BACK-VEER (WITH HEIGHT) WIND PROFILES. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 825 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED, WITH ANY LACK OF INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY AMPLY STRONG/WEAKLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. ALONG WITH RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO RISK MAY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIE OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2017 Author Share Posted May 24, 2017 TOR watch in FL with interesting cells over N FL at this tme new tornado watch way northRGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1000 AM UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY MOVES ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Getting some filtered sun here in eastern NC....could be one of those days that goes either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 It's not everyday you see a tornado watch for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Another huge Tor Watch area. NWS Charleston, SCVerified account @NWSCharlestonSC 10m10 minutes ago A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina until 6 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 So basically they are going to put all of the SE under a tornado watch, I imagine central and eastern NC get in on the act later this afternoon as well......that big cell in N. GA is pretty nasty and tor warned at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicious Fluid Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Eerily calm here this morning. Looks and feels like rain but the sky just looks depressed (as in sad) and won't give in. Waiting till that line of cells to the East of me gets closer before I "perk my ears up" so to speak. I look forward to seeing the discussions on here. Always informative ^-^ ~34 miles Northeastish of ATL *Edit: Getting some intervals of peaking sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 The warned cell near Vienna GA might have produced a tornado, couplet tightened up nice for a few frame, rotation much weaker now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Looks like they've expanded the Enhanced Risk to include much of NC now. RDU is still at 69 with drizzle and a DP of 66. Socked in with clouds in downtown Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Its one of the biggest 5% areas I can recall...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Looks like they've expanded the Enhanced Risk to include much of NC now. RDU is still at 69 with drizzle and a DP of 66. Socked in with clouds in downtown Raleigh. I smell bust in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Pretty mild bust even if it does, 5 percent is far from a bullish call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: I smell bust in the air LOL really? Its a tad bit early for a bust call.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: LOL really? Its a tad bit early for a bust call.... Calm down weenie. It's going to he okay. We will at least get a good shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Several cells along the GA/SC border developing rotations....the hi res models really gets these fired up as they get into central SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Way too early to call a bust. Sun has been shining in Charlotte for the past 20 minutes, surface winds have also increased. Could be a bumpy ride later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 This cell in N. Hampton County SC wrapping up pretty quick over the last 2 frames... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 That N Hampton cell looks pretty classic....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 NWS SPCVerified account @NWSSPC 37s38 seconds ago 1:12pm CDT #SPC_MD 0830 , #scwx #gawx #flwx #alwx, https://go.usa.gov/xN98W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 A couple of nice looking cells over E-C GA @ 14:20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Almost looked like a TDS on CC on that GA tor warned cell.....the rotation to its SW getting more organized as well....should have a warning on it any time now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Brad PanovichVerified account @wxbrad 46s46 seconds ago Yikes near Saluda, SC. #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Central Saluda County in central South Carolina... * Until 300 PM EDT * At 232 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 9 miles west of Saluda, or 22 miles west of Batesburg, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Saluda around 250 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Yikes that Saluda SC rotation is impressive......going to come very close to Saluda proper....I think we got a few posters there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 TDS just west of Saluda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 TDS has lasted 3 frames so far, tornado should be rain wrapped and is about to move very close to the western edge of Saluda.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Wow, impressive rotation on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Saluda rotation has weakened the last few frames as has the TDS but its seems a safe bet they had a TOG just west of Saluda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 253 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Laurens County in Upstate South Carolina... Central Union County in Upstate South Carolina... * Until 330 PM EDT * At 253 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles southwest of Union, or 4 miles southwest of Rose Hill State Park, moving north at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Rose Hill State Park around 300 PM EDT. Buffalo around 320 PM EDT. Union and Monarch Mill around 330 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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