Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Significant mesovortex now evolving NE of Lebanon...and the one east of Falcon also appears to be reorganizing... ...and TDS on the Falcon one again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 26 minutes ago, SnowMan said: Any chance we can get some severe weather in Frisco TX? Hoping for some large hail. How many times has Frisco, hell all of Collin County, been nailed in the last year or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Large TDS SW of Fort Leonard Wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Not many. One storm with large hail. A couple others with pea size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Collin as a whole has been hit a ton. Got some ping pong ball and egg size hail in the fridge in McKinney to attest to it. Also the huge stones in Plano this year, Wylie last, as well as a bunch of quarter to half dollar size deluges. My boyfriend has lived here only a couple years and he thinks I'm a crazy person for putting up with this and refuses to believe it's not normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Early look at 20z sounding launced near Loco, OK. Cap has made significant progress in eroding it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 I'm almost scared for when the cap breaks in OK. I hope some folks just video the towers launching up, it'll be absolutely incredible upward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Memphis Weather said: Early look at 20z sounding launced near Loco, OK. Cap has made significant progress in eroding it appears. SW of OKC and under the boundary I believe, hodograph is a mess...lapse rates still super impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: SW of OKC and under the boundary I believe, hodograph is a mess...lapse rates still super impressive. HRRR point sounding has 8590 J/kg south of Oklahoma City right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 SPC now coordinating a watch for OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Thunder and towering CU here in Edmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2017 Author Share Posted May 27, 2017 50/30 probs on new TOR watch for OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Substantial 850-500 mb crossover shear evident in NE OK. If any discrete cells fire and move into that environment, there's going to be problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 When you say crossover Andy, is that changing of the wind with height? 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Substantial 850-500 mb crossover shear evident in NE OK. If any discrete cells fire and move into that environment, there's going to be problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2017 Author Share Posted May 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Jim Martin said: When you say crossover Andy, is that changing of the wind with height? Yes. Crossover is the change of direction between the two layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 FYI that Loco, OK sounding completed with an astonishing 7,334 CAPE measured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: Substantial 850-500 mb crossover shear evident in NE OK. If any discrete cells fire and move into that environment, there's going to be problems. A pool of 76F Tds to feed from as well given low-level trajectories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Dangerous parameter space in place INVOF the outflow boundary in this same region. Somewhat reminiscent of the 5/10/2008 and 5/22/2011 cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Dangerous parameter space in place INVOF the outflow boundary in this same region. SPC mesoanalysis just updated and added a contour of 7000 SBCAPE in this same area. This OFB and the area around it will be the place of most interest for me over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Yeah, Tulsa NWS has mentioned concern about a boundary intersection point near Vinita OK where also their local high-res model data shows several strongly rotating storms developing off in the coming hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Well we could do one better than the Loco, OK (Ardmore) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0872.html High-end MCD for the bow echo to the east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 This is very awesome to look at:http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=srnplains-02-96-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, andyhb said: Dangerous parameter space in place INVOF the outflow boundary in this same region. Somewhat reminiscent of the 5/10/2008 and 5/22/2011 cases. Right where the HRRR has stuff forming between 22 and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Visible shows CU getting increasingly agitated across that corridor across far NE OK/SE KS/SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 SUMMARY...An extremely unstable airmass is in place across the eastern half of Oklahoma. Once surface-based convective initiation begins, explosive thunderstorm development will lead to rapid supercell evolution with isolated storm coverage expected. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field across the eastern half of Oklahoma with a mid-level ACCAS field across central OK into the greater Tulsa metro. Eroding convective inhibition will gradually prove more favorable for a couple of thunderstorms to develop over the next several hours. 20Z NSSL mobile soundings in Stephens County, OK and in Ardmore, OK showed extreme buoyancy with 6317 J/kg and 6474 J/kg MLCAPE, respectively. The Ardmore 20Z sounding displayed a negligible remaining capping inversion. Effective shear of 48-kt was sampled with both soundings. In summary, explosive thunderstorm development is expected with giant hail an initial risk with the updrafts. Middle to upper 70s degrees F dewpoints and forecast 100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH around 00Z and thereafter will yield a tornado risk (perhaps intense) once established supercells are present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Getting started just to my north it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: Getting started just to my north it looks like. Hopefully that gets to your south before it goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: Getting started just to my north it looks like. Do you have a basement or safe room in light of your experience with May 22, 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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