OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Sure is. One my favorite plains tornado days. In other news, things seem to be getting a lot more cellular area wide, those two large supercells in SW MO/SE KS certainly garner some attention right now. My av is also that day HRRR appears to be getting a better handle on current precipitation we'll see what next model run looks like. I'm targeting US75 and HWY20 between Collinsville and Skiatook this afternoon. Good road options in all directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Near Bunker, Missouri this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2017 Author Share Posted May 27, 2017 Later on toward evening, depending on convective evolution/mode, seems like a relatively higher tornado threat will exist across NE OK INVOF of the mesolow/weakly defined low where surface winds may be backed a bit more toward for south/southeast... ATTM surface winds are locally backed to the southeast near this feature in NC OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Holy radar hole there in southern MO. Didn't realize that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 50 minutes ago, JoMo said: I'm getting an eerie May 22nd vibe. It's very humid outside, a passing shower/thundershower passed through around noon. A cluster of storms in SE KS moving slowly. It hasn't been as sunny as that day though. If rapid development happens in far NE OK..... very eerie. I'm hoping the SE KS storms produce a cold pool and accelerate to the SE with it and push through. My fear is they'll produce an OFB that comes south at the same time explosive development happens in NE OK and they'll ride that boundary and produce tornadoes..... You are not alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 271904Z - 272030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH PROBABLY WILL BE ISSUED BY 20-21Z. RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BY AROUND 23-00Z, IF NOT BEFORE, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TULSA AREA. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS AT LEAST BEGINNING TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NOW EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MORE SUBSTANTIVE WEAKENING OF INHIBITION APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT THE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PLUME OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR, AS COUPLED IMPULSES WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH, AMONG OTHER MODEL OUTPUT, SUGGESTS THAT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO, OR PERHAPS AFTER, 23-00Z. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE INITIATION SEEMS AT LEAST POSSIBLE EARLIER. REGARDLESS, ONCE THE CAP WEAKENS, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RAPID, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO EXTREME CAPE (IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG) AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS PROBABLY WILL AT LEAST INITIALLY INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, PARTICULARLY ON THE NOSE OF THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING, ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY OF TULSA. ADDITIONAL, ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR NEAR THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Decent mammatus sw mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 92/74 here in Tulsa...Sunny and extremely hot! Have family and friends at Rocklahoma tonight..hoping they get out of there when these storms fire up. Will this watch be a PDS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 NW winds at Joplin airport, SW muggy winds at my house. OFB likely somewhere over Joplin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Just now, ouamber said: 92/74 here in Tulsa...Sunny and extremely hot! Have family and friends at Rocklahoma tonight..hoping they get out of there when these storms fire up. Will this watch be a PDS? No. Not enough confidence in a sig tor threat for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Today may meet outbreak criteria (20+),mostly from QLCS tornadoes. Expect a few superceullar tornadoes with a strong one or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 "18Z launch from Chickasha, OK, under southerward moving boundary." From Sean Waugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 meanwhile TWC is playing a documentary. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 14 minutes ago, andyhb said: No. Not enough confidence in a sig tor threat for that. If the derecho threat pans out, they could issue a PDS severe thunderstorm watch, so I wouldn't rule it out entirely. edit: \/\/\/\/\/\/ Missed that context, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: If the derecho threat pans out, they could issue a PDS severe thunderstorm watch, so I wouldn't rule it out entirely. He's referring to the watch to come for E OK and vicinity though. 18z SGF sounding is troublesome if the low level shear increases later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 As expected, the environment is extremely unstable across eastern Oklahoma with more than adequate deep layer shear for intense supercells. CINH is eroding and satellite imagery shows an increasingly agitated cu field. Low-level shear is modest, but given the degree of buoyancy and relatively low LCLs, any longer-lived discrete cells that go up will certainly have strong/intense tornado potential. There may only be one or two, if any, but still... CAMs have struggled with convective placement, but I'd focus on an outflow boundary in NE Oklahoma (especially if a cell goes up near the effective triple point it creates with a surface low) and then in another area, closer to the Red River in southern Oklahoma, immediately ahead of the dryline, where shear vectors are essentially orthogonal to the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Any chance we can get some severe weather in Frisco TX? Hoping for some large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowMan said: Any chance we can get some severe weather in Frisco TX? Hoping for some large hail. Frisco has been hit by how many golfball-baseball size hail events this spring already? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Any polling site recommendations other than iowa state for GRLevel2 data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Just now, OUGrad05 said: Any polling site recommendations other than iowa state for GRLevel2 data? Only other good feed (and almost fail-proof) is AllisonHouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Would appear there may be a substantial TDS south of Lebanon, MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 We have I'm fully aware but I'll take more lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Springfield MO 302 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017 MOC105-272015- /O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-170527T2015Z/ Laclede MO- 302 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN LACLEDE COUNTY... At 301 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Lebanon, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Lebanon... Twin Bridges... This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 118 and 132. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3753 9274 3766 9277 3776 9263 3757 9253 TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 264DEG 35KT 3760 9271 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...1.25IN $$ Boxell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 That MCS in Missouri is REALLY getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 A lot of 70-80 kt outbound bins at 3.5-4k ft from SGF on that bow. Certainly has the signature of a developing derecho with a well-established cold pool and very cold cloud tops via GOES 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, FSMweather said: ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN LACLEDE COUNTY... the debris signature seems to have faded away there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Worth noting that the outflow associated with that MCS is not really surging southward very much. Seems to be lingering as more of an E-W oriented boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 It seems like storms are trying to get going and break the cap in central OK as I peruse that radar in motion. Having a hard time at the present moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Indystorm said: It seems like storms are trying to get going and break the cap in central OK as I peruse that radar in motion. Having a hard time at the present moment. Been doing that for an hour now, I suspect we're about an hour or so out, maybe 90 mins on some isolated early convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.