andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: 16Z HRRR changed depictions considerably for NEOK With the added caveat that it's not handling the ongoing convection very well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: With the added caveat that it's not handling the ongoing convection very well at all. Yup but there's no convection in NEOK at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said: Yup but there's no convection in NEOK at the moment Regardless of where the convection is located, the fact that it is not handling it well casts uncertainty over whether its forecasted depiction of succeeding DMC will be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said: Yup but there's no convection in NEOK at the moment And as long as things stay clear and uncontaminated the powderkeg CAPE keeps increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 This one near Sarcoxie, Missouri could be the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Cell near Cuba, MO has a couplet that's tightened up the past two scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 this cell needs a tor warning imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Just now, ICEHOCEY77 said: Cell near Cuba, MO has a couplet that's tightened up the past two scans. TOR warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Circulation basically disappeared on the next scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: TOR warned now as soon as they posted it, the next scan came out and the couplet is pretty much gone. go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 That nasty MCS southeast of KC looks to be what the 3k NAM was showing, albeit a bit early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Storms in SE KS/SW MO quickly turning into a blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 storms in central MO which look to be the WAA arm of the developing complex might have the best shot for tornadoes storms south look sort of messy although VAD out of SGF does show some backing and slight increase of winds the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Just now, janetjanet998 said: storms in central MO which look to be the WAA arm of the developing complex might have the best shot for tornadoes storms south look sort of messy although VAD out of SGF does show some backing and slight increase of winds the past hour 80/76 at JLN now with winds backing slightly to 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 4.25" hail reported in Bates County, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 I'm getting an eerie May 22nd vibe. It's very humid outside, a passing shower/thundershower passed through around noon. A cluster of storms in SE KS moving slowly. It hasn't been as sunny as that day though. If rapid development happens in far NE OK..... very eerie. I'm hoping the SE KS storms produce a cold pool and accelerate to the SE with it and push through. My fear is they'll produce an OFB that comes south at the same time explosive development happens in NE OK and they'll ride that boundary and produce tornadoes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Probably going to have a TOR issue just southwest of Clinton, MO in the next 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Supercells SW of Jefferson City and near Salem are looking more threatening tornado-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Latest MCD re: TOR Watch SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential continues to increase, particularly across parts of western/southern Missouri through the 19-21Z time frame. This includes the risk for tornadoes and very large hail in at least a couple of supercells, before potentially damaging wind gusts begin to become a more prominent threat. DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorm development is now well underway across the lower Missouri Valley and Missouri Ozarks region, generally focused within a broad/diffuse mid-level baroclinic zone, to the north of the plume of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed layer air emanating from the Mexican Plateau region. A residual pocket of cooler and more stable boundary layer air (due to early day cloud cover and precipitation) remains present across much of south central Missouri, centered along the Interstate 44 between Springfield and St. Louis. It remains unclear, what impact that this will have on longer term convective trends, particularly storms now southeast of Kansas City. At least in the near term, though, an evolving supercell on the southern flank of this evolving cluster may pose a risk for tornadoes, in addition to very large hail, near/west and southwest of Sedalia into the Missouri Ozarks through 20-21z. Otherwise, the evolving cluster of storms to the west of Springfield appears to have longer term access to stronger instability, and may become more prominent across and east of the Springfield area during the next few hours. It appears possible that an evolving supercell on the western flank of this activity could pose a risk for tornadoes in the presence of modestly large low-level hodographs near/north through east of Joplin, before upscale convective growth results in a more substantive risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Lots of vacationers on the Truman and Lake of the Ozarks reservoirs this holiday weekend se of that tor warned Clinton MO cell. Hope they are aware of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 13 minutes ago, JoMo said: I'm getting an eerie May 22nd vibe. It's very humid outside, a passing shower/thundershower passed through around noon. A cluster of storms in SE KS moving slowly. It hasn't been as sunny as that day though. If rapid development happens in far NE OK..... very eerie. I'm hoping the SE KS storms produce a cold pool and accelerate to the SE with it and push through. My fear is they'll produce an OFB that comes south at the same time explosive development happens in NE OK and they'll ride that boundary and produce tornadoes..... It looks like one in SC KS moving SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2017 Author Share Posted May 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Lots of vacationers on the Truman and Lake of the Ozarks reservoirs this holiday weekend se of that tor warned Clinton MO cell. Hope they are aware of things. Given the forecast several days in advance of severe storms, I hope people just steered clear of going out on the water today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Given the forecast several days in advance of severe storms, I hope people just steered clear of going out on the water today. You're funny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2017 Author Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, David Reimer said: You're funny... Sigh... Missourians... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 It's possible that rotation is increasing near Cherokee/Weir Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2017 Author Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: It's possible that rotation is increasing near Cherokee/Weir Kansas Storm certainly has quite the inflow notch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Sigh... Missourians... lol. Is that april 14, 2012 as your avatar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2017 Author Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Is that april 14, 2012 as your avatar? Sure is. One my favorite plains tornado days. In other news, things seem to be getting a lot more cellular area wide, those two large supercells in SW MO/SE KS certainly garner some attention right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Sure is. One my favorite plains tornado days. In other news, things seem to be getting a lot more cellular area wide, those two large supercells in SW MO/SE KS certainly garner some attention right now. I'm not very enthused by trends, both via radar imagery (see SGF velocity scans) and ground obs. I've been wandering just N/NW of Joplin for the past two hours haven't seen much of anything that suggests near-term tornado potential. Seems outflowy with shelf-like appearances. The more imminent tornado threat may be well NE of SGF and then later on across eastern Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Storm being warned near Greenfield, Missouri has the Tornado... Possible tag on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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