OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, Quincy said: I'm not concerned, especially based on satellite trends. Heading up to Joplin to assess and keep a wide area in play for this afternoon. What i'm trying to juggle Quincy is chasing and where from. Frankly I think NEOK has a ton of potential and hard to not see some CI between 4 and 5 based on what I'm seeing but clearly I missed the height falls issues. We're going to the lake (Grand lake) either tonight or tomorrow and I could chase out of there but would be by myself, i don't like chasing alone, I prefer having one person to drive and the other to look at maps, posts, models, etc, far safer that way. Or I chase out of home base and wife and kids stay here where we have a safe room, (My preference) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 CAP looks to be breaking over MO and SE KS 1 km HEL sort of blah for the time being...but should be increasing a little 119 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MO...SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN KY...AND NORTHWEST TN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS/OK INTO EASTERN KY/TN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CO... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ..SUMMARY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE OZARK REGION TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OZARK PLATEAU. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. ..EASTERN OK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS PART OF THE NATION TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION LATER TODAY, SO LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AREAS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CLUSTERS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BY MID AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS/WESTERN MO/FAR NORTHEAST OK, IN VICINITY OF REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND WHERE EXTREME INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. A POTENT COMBINATION OF MLCAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2/S2 SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF GIANT HAIL AND TORNADOES (PERHAPS STRONG). AN EVOLUTION TOWARD BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES IS INDICATED BY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS, WITH ONE OR MORE FAST-MOVING BOW ECHOES LIKELY TO TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KY THIS EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL DERECHO WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO OK IS LESS CERTAIN DUE TO A STRONG CAP AND SUBTLE FORCING, BUT THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL ALSO LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF AR AFTER DARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 some of the storms over MO trying to get hooks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Severe storm approaching Ottawa KS certainly blew up in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Re: 0-1km SRH, 75-150 m2/s2 is not bad given the degree of instability. Plus you'd imagine low-level shear is locally enhanced along outflow boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 That new convection near KC looks to be surface based. Looks like we're off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 That storm in SE KS went from basically nothing to 50k+ ft echo tops in six scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: That storm in SE KS went from basically nothing to 50k+ ft echo tops in six scans. Yeah doesn't take long with a bazillion CAPE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2017 Author Share Posted May 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: That storm in SE KS went from basically nothing to 50k+ ft echo tops in six scans. This will be one to watch in the near-term... relatively more discrete compared to convection near KCK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 84/74 at SGF at noon what are they waiting for with the watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Just now, janetjanet998 said: 84/74 at SGF at noon what are they waiting for with the watch? It's being coordinated right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2017 Author Share Posted May 27, 2017 Looks like those op-HRRR runs from early this morning are doing fairly well right now. These storms currently likely won't be tornado producers any time soon... but if storms get rooted to the warm front, and if any storms fire along the dryline, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Memphis Weather said: It's being coordinated right now Do you know if it is a Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Just now, Jim Martin said: Do you know if it is a Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm watch? Tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Just now, Memphis Weather said: Tornado Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 This stuff in KS went up in a hurry, is this going to create problems for the afternoon convection? It's a lot stronger than the HRRR or others had it progged at. North side of the boundary, I tend to think OK KS border and back to the south will stay pretty salty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 TOR watch for the MO border counties IN ks from KCK to to OK line and pretty much the entire southern half of MO with the exception of SE corner until 1900. Probs are T 60/50, W 80/60, H 90/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Calderon said: TOR watch for the MO border counties IN ks from KCK to to OK line and pretty much the entire southern half of MO with the exception of SE corner until 1900. Probs are T 60/50, W 80/60, H 90/70. Until 3pm, that's not very late....kind of surprised TBH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Just now, OUGrad05 said: Until 3pm, that's not very late....kind of surprised TBH 7 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Just now, OUGrad05 said: Until 3pm, that's not very late....kind of surprised TBH 1900 Central time, aka 7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 WFUS53 KICT 271723 TORICT KSC133-271815- /O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0021.170527T1723Z-170527T1815Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wichita KS 1223 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017 The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Neosho County in southeastern Kansas... * Until 115 PM CDT * At 1223 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near St. Paul, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Neosho County, including the following locations: South Mound. # Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: 7 PM CDT. Yeah, sorry about that. I only use the 24 hour clock. If it was Zulu, I would've put "Z" at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 This tor warned cell in se KS is the initial storm we've been anticipating to go tornadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Have a bad feeling about today. everything is screaming outbreak to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, Natester said: 1900 Central time, aka 7 PM. AH, I was thinking 1900Z which is 2pm (not 3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Have a bad feeling about today. everything is screaming outbreak to me. Tornado? I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Have a bad feeling about today. everything is screaming outbreak to me. What makes you feel that way? You just cant make a claim like that and leave it at a one-liner with absolutely no supporting details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 16Z HRRR changed depictions considerably for NEOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: What makes you feel that way? You just cant make a claim like that and leave it at a one-liner with absolutely no supporting details. high cape, sun, discrete cells, shear, helicity. no MCS messing things up like the past few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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