janetjanet998 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 00 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. TORNADOES WILL ESPECIALLY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM ALONG A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER VICINITY, WHILE SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR EVOLVING LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES WOULD ALSO POSE A TORNADO RISK. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY AS STORMS ACCELERATE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 about 200 filtered storm reports so far....severe storms ongoing from the east coast to OK...going to be huge totals with fast moving complexes Wonder if SPC is toying with the idea of HIGH risk for wind AR area overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Nowata storm trying to latch onto the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2017 Author Share Posted May 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Memphis Weather said: Nowata storm trying to latch onto the boundary This storm is definitely one to watch given what you said... Plus it is discrete. Classic supercell structure appears to be developing, on radar at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Impressive cell near Nowata, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 A thermonuclear cap suppresses storms/tors so far at least in an area where they were expected. Yet repeated clusters and lines of svr storms continue to move over areas that have already been worked over in MO. I don't get that part of the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 That cell also beginning to deviate more right/SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2017 Author Share Posted May 28, 2017 Cell near Nowata, OK already has decent rotation a few thousand feet up... So once it gets better rooted to the boundary it could get going pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Radar can only see at 10,000 ft plus, but the cell tracking towards Poplar Bluff, MO could be a dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Nothing overly impressive at the moment, seems the limited SRH is hurting where many people thought maybe the extreme instability would help to overcome that. EDIT: to clarify I was among those who thought instability would compensate for meager low level helicity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST... ..SUMMARY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE OZARKS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OZARK PLATEAU. A FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. ..OZARKS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MULTIPLE SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EVOLVING ACROSS THIS REGION THIS EVENING, AIDED BY AN AXIS OF AMPLE INSTABILITY ALONG THEIR SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGE. THE 00Z BNA SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PLENTIFUL MIXED-LAYER CAPE, SUCH THAT DOWNWIND-PROPAGATING MCSS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, THE 45- AND 30-PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE EXPANDED SOUTHEAST. ACROSS THE OZARKS, PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING EAST-WEST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IN TURN, UPSCALE GROWTH THIS EVENING SHOULD FOSTER THE EVOLUTION OF A BOWING COMPLEX FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. WITH EVEN GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT HERE, A FEW SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING GUSTS, AS WELL AS TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL, REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..RED RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SEVERE CONVECTION HAS INITIATED NEAR A DRYLINE CLOSE TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AS WELL AS ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH EXTREME BUOYANCY PRESENT (E.G., 5600 J/KG OF MLCAPE FROM THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING), THE POTENTIAL FOR GIANT HAIL CONTINUES. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE STORMS HAVE GENERALLY FAILED TO DEVELOP ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL MESOCYLONES SO FAR (LIKELY DUE TO MODE AND THE UNDERCUTTING COLD FRONT), MORE ROBUST/SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING AND SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA, THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES, ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, REMAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Rotation is really getting going around Gene Autry, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 TW east of Ardmore, OK now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, Chinook said: Rotation is really getting going around Gene Autry, OK Definitely. Hook developing there too. Funny how the storms in the most favorable parameter space to the north have next to no rotation though. Edit: TOR warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2017 Author Share Posted May 28, 2017 Panhandle magic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2017 Author Share Posted May 28, 2017 Supercell west of Okmulgee bears watching... starting to wrap up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Becoming a little more interested in the Paden, OK cell. Overall structure seems to be improving and I see some evidence of rotation trying to develop. Will see if it sustains itself though. Nowata cell quickly went upscale into an HP mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2017 Author Share Posted May 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Buckeye05 said: Becoming a little more interested in the Paden, OK cell. Overall structure seems to be improving and I see some evidence of rotation trying to develop. Will see if it sustains itself though. Nowata cell quickly went upscale into an HP mess. Primarily because it got undercut, I believe. Hard to tell if that was just an OFB or the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Hook forming with the Okmulgee cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Primarily because it got undercut, I believe. Hard to tell if that was just an OFB or the cold front. I don't think it was the cold front. 70+ dews remain at 01z NW of I-44. The cell crossed over into the north side of an outflow boundary and never could quite latch onto it, even though it took a turn right. We chased it for a while and never really saw any kind of wall cloud or focused low-level rotation. Given the rich, boundary layer moisture, convective overturning wasn't enough to completely ruin the environment, but it did create enough CINH to limit updraft organization and disrupt low-level wind fields enough to preclude a greater tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said: Hook forming with the Okmulgee cell. TOG on that one, TW coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2017 Author Share Posted May 28, 2017 Cell that just formed west of Tulsa went from literally nothing to 61dbz in 10 minutes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2017 Author Share Posted May 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Quincy said: I don't think it was the cold front. 70+ dews remain at 01z NW of I-44. The cell crossed over into the north side of an outflow boundary and never could quite latch onto it, even though it took a turn right. We chased it for a while and never really saw any kind of wall cloud or focused low-level rotation. Given the rich, boundary layer moisture, convective overturning wasn't enough to completely ruin the environment, but it did create enough CINH to limit updraft organization and disrupt low-level wind fields enough to preclude a greater tornado threat. I really didn't think it was either to begin with... As I thought the CF was still north into KS... But Picca in the 01Z discussion mentioned the cold front undercutting the storms in NE OK, so I just went with what he said. Quote Severe convection has initiated near a dryline close to the I-35 corridor, as well as along a cold front pushing south across northeast Oklahoma. With extreme buoyancy present (e.g., 5600 J/kg of MLCAPE from the 00Z OUN sounding), the potential for giant hail continues. Additionally, while storms have generally failed to develop organized/sustained low-level mesocylones so far (likely due to mode and the undercutting cold front) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Okmulgee cell has good inflow and rotation, but there's a lot of junk rapidly going up just to the southwest. May not stay discrete for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2017 Author Share Posted May 28, 2017 Supercell east of Duncan is starting to look more interesting... Has some broad rotation on KLTX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 As has been mentioned, there was a weather spotter tornado report near Welty, OK at 8:26 PM CT. This was mentioned in the first warning statement for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Fairly intense couplet now north of Castle, Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Just now, Buckeye05 said: Fairly intense couplet now north of Castle, Oklahoma. Oh yea, thats ramping up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Oh yea, thats ramping up fast. As is the one near Velma, OK. Good couplet there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Castle tornado is completely stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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