dmillz25 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Tonight looks rather interesting but Monday may be the big ticket day in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Only 3 days with thunderstorms so far for me this year: 03/28, 04/06, 04/29. I hope something delivers soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Cfa said: Only 3 days with thunderstorms so far for me this year: 03/28, 04/06, 04/29. I hope something delivers soon. I've had 5. During the blizzard and February are the other two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Monday looks like the day, though timing looks poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 We're in a good spot with regards to LLJ placement late Monday night. Not much in the way of SBCAPE to work with but a decent amount of elevated instability. Looks like some heavy rain and lightning is possible but not much in the way of severe. The 12z NAM drops 2.21" of rain at EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 The latest HRRR has some isolated activity the next few hours. It was wrong yesterday so we'll see if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Strong low level lapse rates and about 2000 J/KG of SBCAPE to go along with about 35kts of shear should something go up. Similar conditions yesterday over the Mid-Atlantic produced a storm with ping pong ball sized hail in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Devil Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 My daughter got caught in that storm while she was driving yesterday (she had to pull off and wait it out). Said it was the coolest lightning she had ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 Some storms today in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 Nearly constant lightning for the past hr, heard there were 1600 strikes in the hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 It seems we do a lot better at night with thunderstorms. This year I've only had one thunderstorm occur during the day, the rest occurred at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 41 minutes ago, Cfa said: It seems we do a lot better at night with thunderstorms. This year I've only had one thunderstorm occur during the day, the rest occurred at night. Its still very early in the season. We don't really get into the good storms/severe stuff until July. We've actually done well this year relative to the past few years I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 We do elevated convection well. That and the developing surface low played a major role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Some nice supercells over Central PA, especially the one just West of Lock Haven. The HRRR has all of this activity vanishing into thin air as it moves East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Some nice supercells over Central PA, especially the one just West of Lock Haven. The HRRR has all of this activity vanishing into thin air as it moves East. Yeah, lots of action out there. Socked in here with clouds, cool air, and a light mist. I'm thinking the HRRR will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 We are under a decent downpour now, at work, near Bridgewater, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Pouring on 95 by newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 A few hundred J/KG of SBCAPE, good shear and decent mid-level lapse rates to go along with great low level lapse rates. Should something get going this afternoon it could be bombs away. SPC has included the area in a general risk for thunderstorms. I can see a thunderstorm going up over Rockland County from my office window which just started showing up on the latest radar loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 Storms firing up everywhere it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Cell aiming at the park right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 The heaviest is probably just south of the Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 A few minutes and out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Morris said: A few minutes and out already. Not enough moisture today. It really tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 I put a video up on YouTube from the Thunderstorm early in the morning on April 29th from my phone. Sorry for the quality but figure some on here would like to see it. Definitely one of the best light shows I have seen in my 48 years. Very vivid as it approached, during and after as it moved east. Grabbed the phone to capture a few minutes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 4, 2017 Author Share Posted June 4, 2017 Marginal risk for tomorrow in our area. Looks like a chance of widespread thunderstorms starting tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 21, 2017 Author Share Posted June 21, 2017 Since no one uses this, tomorrow should be one of those surprise severe weather days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 21, 2017 Author Share Posted June 21, 2017 Marginal risk for the area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Instability growing now. Shear is stronger than Monday but SBCAPE is less. Low level lapse rates are strong so anything that can sustain itself could drop some small hail or gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 The high res NAM is nice for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock888 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Hope the action in PA and NJ holds up into city. That cell that just popped up on northern CT looks nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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