jbenedet Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 I dunno maybe I'm an optimist here, but the steady drop in ML temps combined with the unobstructed (cloudless) heating of the already-torched surface and moist dews should make for widespread strong and localized severe throughout the area. Don't need much of a forcing mechanism with these surface conditions.... The problem I'm seeing is we likely have pulsing cells where cells pop but are unable to maintain potent structure with too much Cape relative to shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I dunno maybe I'm an optimist here, but the steady drop in ML temps combined with the unobstructed (cloudless) heating of the already-torched surface and moist dews should make for widespread strong and localized severe throughout the area. Don't need much of a forcing mechanism with these surface conditions.... The problem I'm seeing is we likely have pulsing cells where cells pop but are unable to maintain potent structure with too much Cape relative to shear... yeah whatever forms definitely will be of pulse nature. I would really love if ALB or OK did an 18z balloon launch. Some models have indicated some potential capping just above 700mb throughout the day and some models actually erode it. I think this could be a key as well b/c if there is indeed no cap or it erodes here that will increase the likelihood of rapidly accelerating parcels into the mid-levels and even though shear is on the weak side you do have 30 knots of effective bulk shear thanks to strengthening flow from 700-500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Upgraded to a slight risk in the most recent update for central and eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 that's where best chance for any strong to severe should be...a noticeable boundary has pushed on-shore across southern CT, southern RI, and into SE MA so once the boundary from the north pushes into this boundary this will boost low-level convergence quite a bit and allow for storms to briefly overcome marginal shear and this is where some cores could take off and we get some hail (probably under 1'' I would think given high freezing levels) and damaging wind gusts in the form of wet microbursts as cores collapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 dews actually boosted up a bit and sfc winds now look more SW across some stations. Theta-e ridge winning out over any mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: dews actually boosted up a bit and sfc winds now look more SW across some stations. Theta-e ridge winning out over any mixing? We're probably about maxed out on mixing at this point. So dews might pool a little ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: We're probably about maxed out on mixing at this point. So dews might pool a little ahead of the front. that would throw a major wrench into my forecast. Although I'm not totally sure how it would help with getting more coverage of convection but I guess it would mean higher end cape verifies (though not the 5000 GFS had) which means greater potential for severe cores (albeit brief lasting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Microbursts are certainly interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: that would throw a major wrench into my forecast. Although I'm not totally sure how it would help with getting more coverage of convection but I guess it would mean higher end cape verifies (though not the 5000 GFS had) which means greater potential for severe cores (albeit brief lasting). MLCAPE approaching 1500 down your way, and shear around 30 knots. That should be enough for some isolated severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: MLCAPE approaching 1500 down your way, and shear around 30 knots. That should be enough for some isolated severe. effective bulk shear is 25-30 knots which isn't horrible given the capes we have. Just about too eroded MLcin down this way as well. I'm just pissed I'll be sitting in a classroom with NO WINDOWS from 4:00 on. I'm expecting a severe storm with golf ball hail to blow right over Waterbury and I won't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 So what happens up here in central New Hampshire? Does the showers to the northwest of us in Vermont that line just saw dissipate and new convection forms in Southern New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Just now, wxeyeNH said: So what happens up here in central New Hampshire? Does the showers to the northwest of us in Vermont that line just saw dissipate and new convection forms in Southern New England? You may catch a shower with the cold front itself, but the real unstable air is basically along and south of a line from DAW to BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Interesting clouds down here near that boundary. Almost lenticular looking in places. Feel like something's gonna pop soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: that's where best chance for any strong to severe should be...a noticeable boundary has pushed on-shore across southern CT, southern RI, and into SE MA so once the boundary from the north pushes into this boundary this will boost low-level convergence quite a bit and allow for storms to briefly overcome marginal shear and this is where some cores could take off and we get some hail (probably under 1'' I would think given high freezing levels) and damaging wind gusts in the form of wet microbursts as cores collapse Boundary I would assume is the seabreeze; that is daily trigger for storms down here in S FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Scorching hot. Could be fun for some. Tricky little setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 MD issued... possible watch incoming ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 I probably wouldn't issue a watch. Not overly impressed by the vis sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 That sevee warned cell is going to pas just to my south at school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 what's the VIL for the day? Anyone still calculate that? Albany used to mention it all the time in their AFD's but haven't seen that in quite some years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 Are these high CC values detecting hail? Still trying to full understand CC/ZDR and how to analyze them on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Getting quite dark out there at the moment....wonder if this thing fizzles before it gets here though. They tend to do so coming from that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 a few wind reports...seems like that's what will be the threat with these. I don't think we'll see any severe hail unless some storm really takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 How is the elevated instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Showing signs we will have storms now finally. Cap broke due to some localized terrain/approaching cold front and it has allowed storms to brew in localized areaa. Tough to tell whether or not this will become something more interesting or localized yet. VT storms are being watched closely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Interesting storm dropping BOS way from NW. Great TCU to NW. Hazy but I can see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Sheesh. Decently solid rotation over the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Was on the northern edge of the cells moving through SVT, some decent thunder, calm winds. Pretty meh, but I wasn't in the meat of it. Rain drops were massive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Under svr warning here. It's showing signs of pulsing up in upper tilts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Impressive upward growth in the tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Impressive upward growth in the tower. I can see those cells hitting the stratosphere from Dover NH, 50 miles to my south. You guys in NE MA should have some fun with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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