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Convective Thread


weatherwiz

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Just think of all the money he saved to open up the view!

I pray each night before bed that one day, I'll have the same thing happen to me. 

 

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Got to see first hand damage from the TOR back on 07/01 that passed over the west shore of Long Lake yesterday that wiped out all the trees from Colonial Mast campground and my cousins cottage across from Cape Monday cove, There cottage was not visible from the lake prior to this event and you can still see all the damage that was left behind by the TOR

 

Tomatoes 07-01-17.PNG

Could be umbrella, could be giant green penis.  I'm undecided.

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17 hours ago, dryslot said:

That is actually 100% better then it was i was told yesterday.........lol, She also told me the boat at the dock is brand new and they had just launched it on Sunday as there other one was totaled , No, They can clean it up, There was a tree service company that was working the campground side to the right yesterday, The TOR passed from the right across the front of there property and across the lake into the cove, That last tree in the right of the photo that is still laying in half is in the direction that it went

they can't clean up the downed trees or the ones that were snapped in half?

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Wiz to go chasing into E NY or VT?  From 1730 Day 2 SPC OTLK:

Farther northeast (eastern New York into western New England),
   low-level shear profiles are expected to be a bit stronger owing to
   backed surface winds in response to the deepening Canadian surface
   low.  An attendant risk for supercellular structures (and perhaps a
   tornado or two) will exist, although the magnitude of this threat
   will depend on how unstable the airmass can get during peak heating
   hours, which is somewhat uncertain.  A categorical upgrade may be
   needed in later outlooks - especially if stronger instability can
   develop along the Hudson Valley and vicinity (as suggested by the
   12Z Nam).

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Please, congrats on Lakes region damage. You can't stop the Lakes Region.

I rarely get more than a puff of wind. We do small hail and heavy rain well I guess. I guess even in a good event the legit severe is very isolated, but it always seems to be some small grove of pines in Moultonborough that gets mowed over. 

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I rarely get more than a puff of wind. We do small hail and heavy rain well I guess. I guess even in a good event the legit severe is very isolated, but it always seems to be some small grove of pines in Moultonborough that gets mowed over. 

I just mean the region in general. Half the fun of going up there is hoping to see a good storm. Kind of sad. Although in winter, I would go nuts having the Osippees choke off my snow.

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pointing out the obvious buut... those enhanced this and slight that do not include SNE ... not really...  terminate in western zones so, unless there's some extra-double top secret agenda of reasons why that extends all the way to the coast and no one gets to know why or how, don't be shocked if climate blase just re-affirms its self. 

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Kevin, seasons in seasons.   A great day to go for a sweaty lunchtime run.  A great humid night to pour a nice DIPA at 10 PM for those of us in E MA and watch a great light show approaching slowly from the west. 

 

We don't bang hard but we enjoy ! 

 

 

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Tornado Watch coming for NY State.

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1548
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of NY and northern PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 221555Z - 221830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
   tornadoes is increasing, and the severe risk will continue through
   the afternoon. The issuance of a Tornado Watch will be forthcoming
   within the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent continues atop a
   relatively moist boundary layer characterized by upper 60s to lower
   70s surface dewpoints. Pockets of at least modest insolation will
   continue to enhance buoyancy, with MLCAPE forecast to increase to
   1000-1500 J/kg ahead of a pre-frontal trough/effective boundary
   crossing the Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms will continue to
   increase in coverage and intensity from western NY to western PA and
   spread eastward and northeastward through the afternoon, amidst weak
   capping. The presence of 30-40 kt of effective shear accompanying a
   mid-level speed maximum will promote organized convective
   structures, including quasi-linear segments and perhaps a few
   transient supercells. Moderate low-level shear in the warm sector
   associated with a low-level jet, enhanced by a trough-related deep
   cyclone north of the area, will support some tornado risk with cells
   and with meso-vortices embedded in lines, given 150-300 m2/s2 of
   effective SRH. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will be likely --
   enhanced with small, line-accompanying rear-inflow jets. A Tornado
   Watch will be issued.
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39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Tornado Watch coming for NY State.

 


Mesoscale Discussion 1548
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of NY and northern PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 221555Z - 221830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
   tornadoes is increasing, and the severe risk will continue through
   the afternoon. The issuance of a Tornado Watch will be forthcoming
   within the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent continues atop a
   relatively moist boundary layer characterized by upper 60s to lower
   70s surface dewpoints. Pockets of at least modest insolation will
   continue to enhance buoyancy, with MLCAPE forecast to increase to
   1000-1500 J/kg ahead of a pre-frontal trough/effective boundary
   crossing the Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms will continue to
   increase in coverage and intensity from western NY to western PA and
   spread eastward and northeastward through the afternoon, amidst weak
   capping. The presence of 30-40 kt of effective shear accompanying a
   mid-level speed maximum will promote organized convective
   structures, including quasi-linear segments and perhaps a few
   transient supercells. Moderate low-level shear in the warm sector
   associated with a low-level jet, enhanced by a trough-related deep
   cyclone north of the area, will support some tornado risk with cells
   and with meso-vortices embedded in lines, given 150-300 m2/s2 of
   effective SRH. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will be likely --
   enhanced with small, line-accompanying rear-inflow jets. A Tornado
   Watch will be issued.

Congrats and enjoy

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