CT Valley Snowman Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Derecho is a pretty strong word to be throwing around. A MCS, probably in a weakening state or south of us seems more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Derecho is a pretty strong word to be throwing around. A MCS, probably in a weakening state or south of us seems more realistic. Look just west of chicago.. That ones a beast!!!! Hoping we see something tomorrow but looks south for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 I actually don't really see anything happening tomorrow night...maybe some showers or a few thunderstorms but when it comes to nocturnal convection and talking about nocturnal severe...you need very specific ingredients and all (well most) are lacking and most namely a strong/well-defined shortwave with good height falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 10 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Derecho is a pretty strong word to be throwing around. A MCS, probably in a weakening state or south of us seems more realistic. Stay safe everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 Better chance for a strong t'storm this afternoon than this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Just to clarify (just in case...) but a Derecho doesn't happen without driving MCS... That may seem like an obvious statement ... but (and we just had a discussion similar to the following, recently) the distinction isn't made necessarily for "weaker" outward rushing pools of gathered down-burst' air. It's made for destructive character from the sounds of it. A "weak" MCS with a thus "weak" outflow boundary and associated gossamer breeze is operating via the exact same fundamental physics as those that make the evening news like in 2012 in the M/A. So if someone wants to call it a derecho, they are only technically wrong. AMS uses the terms "damaging" is their definition - that's the only defining difference. The human labeling of a Derecho is whether or not it is damaging to human interests? That is fine as a classification but still physically, there is no difference between MCS outflows and Derechos, except perhaps MPH of wind. Not that any one asked and needed the lecture - just felt like typing that. I've been sort of obsessed lately with the hollow conceits of everything in reality - may be my own mid-life crisis lurking around the next major corner of life is my deeper motivation. Not sure... but I'm increasingly finding that everything in reality and nature actually exists, in time, in a gray fomenting soup that we sentient beings attempt to grapple with; as though putting labels and categories on matters some how gives us controls over a domain whose controls are far more conditional to the whims of the domain than those observing the domain would ever care to believe is the case. The rest is a Dr. Who episode - J/k... It's probably a fair assessment to say that a Derecho is unlikely - if only by that we mean that we do not suspect severe 55+MPH wind blasts carving through the region. But, I don't think we're even seeing an MCS frankly. One sort of untested rule of thumb is that MCS seem to migrate along the 6 to 10 dm height interval ..turning ever right around ridge nodes. If a given region is outside that railway, the train doesn't come to your town. I'm not sure that really works, but it seems that way... In this situation, our eternal weakness in heights here compared to that monolithic heat dome out west really wants to turn any such organized clusters SW prior to region us. We could, however, have convections from other means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just to clarify (just in case...) but a Derecho doesn't happen without driving MCS... That may seem like an obvious statement ... but (and we just had a discussion similar to the following, recently) the distinction isn't made necessarily for "weaker" outward rushing pools of gathered down-burst' air. It's made for destructive character from the sounds of it. A "weak" MCS with a thus "weak" outflow boundary and associated gossamer breeze is operating via the exact same fundamental physics as those that make the evening news like in 2012 in the M/A. So if someone wants to call it a derecho, they are only technically wrong. AMS uses the terms "damaging" is their definition - that's the only defining difference. The human labeling of a Derecho is whether or not it is damaging to human interests? That is fine as a classification but still physically, there is no difference between MCS outflows and Derechos, except perhaps MPH of wind. Not that any one asked and needed the lecture - just felt like typing that. I've been sort of obsessed lately with the hollow conceits of everything in reality - may be my own mid-life crisis lurking around the next major corner of life is my deeper motivation. Not sure... but I'm increasingly finding that everything in reality and nature actually exists, in time, in a gray fomenting soup that we sentient beings attempt to grapple with; as though putting labels and categories on matters some how gives us controls over a domain whose controls are far more conditional to the whims of the domain than those observing the domain would ever care to believe is the case. The rest is a Dr. Who episode - J/k... It's probably a fair assessment to say that a Derecho is unlikely - if only by that we mean that we do not suspect severe 55+MPH wind blasts carving through the region. But, I don't think we're even seeing an MCS frankly. One sort of untested rule of thumb is that MCS seem to migrate along the 6 to 10 dm height interval ..turning ever right around ridge nodes. If a given region is outside that railway, the train doesn't come to your town. I'm not sure that really works, but it seems that way... In this situation, our eternal weakness in heights here compared to that monolithic heat dome out west really wants to turn any such organized clusters SW prior to region us. We could, however, have convections from other means. Well there are some supplementary criteria that are included as well: - A concentration of 50 knot reports and major axis of 250 miles - The pattern must be non-random (so either a single swath of damage or a series of swaths) - There must be at least three reports of 65 knot winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well there are some supplementary criteria that are included as well: - A concentration of 50 knot reports and major axis of 250 miles - The pattern must be non-random (so either a single swath of damage or a series of swaths) - There must be at least three reports of 65 knot winds Yeeeah, I get all that ... The muse I was dancing around goes like, - A concentration of 40 knot report and major axis of 200 miles - The pattern was partially non-random ... - There were two reports of 65 knot winds is only technically not a Derecho. In nature, it seems like the physics that drive either result is only distinguished by scalar measure of variables feeding into the natural equations, ...not in the mathematics of how they came into being. Since mathematics is the true and only universal language of everything inside the boundaries of the Universe (eh hm), any distinction that eliminates the slightly weaker result/example above from formal classification is just a human label. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeeeah, I get all that ... The muse I was dancing around goes like, - A concentration of 40 knot report and major axis of 200 miles - The pattern was partially non-random ... - There were two reports of 65 knot winds is only technically not a Derecho. In nature, it seems like the physics that drive either result is only distinguished by scalar measure of variables feeding into the natural equations, ...not in the mathematics of how they came into being. Since mathematics is the true and only universal language of everything inside the boundaries of the Universe (eh hm), any distinction that eliminates the slightly weaker result/example above from formal classification is just a human label. Well we typically have labels to separate the damage levels. Regardless, Kevin was implying major damage with a strong MCS today. So I'm not sure why it matters that the math is the same with a weak MCS vs. a strong one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well we typically have labels to separate the damage levels. Regardless, Kevin was implying major damage with a strong MCS today. So I'm not sure why it matters that the math is the same with a weak MCS vs. a strong one. it doesn't matter - the thing was tongue in cheek... You're being too serious ...I suppose one could argue that the slightly just below Derecho qualification causing a lot more damage because it struck a prone region by comparison, makes the "label" less than practically useful... I wonder if those "labels" are scientifically derived - I know that for tornado classification they are (at least I thought - I could be wrong) in part building-sciences. I think the early days of Theodore Fujita ...I remember reading when I was kid (skipping school to go down to the library to read weather books because I was a super f'n weird kid..) the classification was directly related to evaluation of structural scarring. ..etc.etc.. we all know that. And since, the scale is even further refined. I think there is something similar for TC wind criteria as well... Heck, the old Beaufort Scale for marine interests came with sea-surface collateral descriptions. But I wonder if specifically Derecho wind criteria was based on what ? just curious - i could probably bother to research to the topic my self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it doesn't matter - the thing was tongue in cheek... You're being too serious ...I suppose one could argue that the slightly just below Derecho qualification causing a lot more damage because it struck a prone region by comparison, makes the "label" less than practically useful... I wonder if those "labels" are scientifically derived - I know that for tornado classification they are (at least I thought - I could be wrong) in part building-sciences. I think the early days of Theodore Fujita ...I remember reading when I was kid (skipping school to go down to the library to read weather books because I was a super f'n weird kid..) the classification was directly related to evaluation of structural scarring. ..etc.etc.. we all know that. And since, the scale is even further refined. I think there is something similar for TC wind criteria as well... Heck, the old Beaufort Scale for marine interests came with sea-surface collateral descriptions. But I wonder if specifically Derecho wind criteria was based on what ? just curious - i could probably bother to research to the topic my self. It was from Hinrichs to differentiate rotary tornado winds from straight line winds. Fujita then added the technical descriptors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 I wasn't implying anything. Yesterday the hi res stuff showed a derecho tearing across SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wasn't implying anything. Yesterday the hi res stuff showed a derecho tearing across SNE No, it didn't. They had a decaying MCS that more or less had some flares ups in the afternoon on its periphery. Certainly no hi-res was showing a consistent wind producer into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 That being said, BUF did have a nice TDS pass just south of town. Could've been a tornado on the ground for at least a few volume scans. I saw a few volumes scans with debris to nearly 4,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 51 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That being said, BUF did have a nice TDS pass just south of town. Could've been a tornado on the ground for at least a few volume scans. I saw a few volumes scans with debris to nearly 4,000 feet. Do you know any good resources for understanding dual pol and all the products? There was something I found from noaa I think it was and it was like 99 pages but it was more about the background of dual pol and the math and stuff. Looking more to like know what to look for with regards to hail, debris, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Do you know any good resources for understanding dual pol and all the products? There was something I found from noaa I think it was and it was like 99 pages but it was more about the background of dual pol and the math and stuff. Looking more to like know what to look for with regards to hail, debris, etc http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/rac/outline.php Check out these webinars. Usually 20-30 minutes each explaining different aspects. They used to have a specific media track for understanding dual-pol, but I think those have been wrapped into the whole RAC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/rac/outline.php Check out these webinars. Usually 20-30 minutes each explaining different aspects. They used to have a specific media track for understanding dual-pol, but I think those have been wrapped into the whole RAC now. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: That being said, BUF did have a nice TDS pass just south of town. Could've been a tornado on the ground for at least a few volume scans. I saw a few volumes scans with debris to nearly 4,000 feet. It hit 2 mins from my house. Most damage I've seen from severe weather in quite some time. Cars lifted and thrown around, windows in quite a few cars blown out, roofs partially torn off, large trees down and metal wrapped around metal as it hit the Erie Country Fairgrounds. I would say EF 1 damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It hit 2 mins from my house. Most damage I've seen from severe weather in quite some time. Cars lifted and thrown around, windows in quite a few cars blown out, roofs partially torn off, large trees down and metal wrapped around metal as it hit the Erie Country Fairgrounds. I would say EF 1 damage. holy **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: holy **** Pretty impressive photo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty impressive photo. Indeed...hopefully nobody was sitting in that front seat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 I'm 75 feet too far west for the storm that is exploding over me. It's up to five (5) rumbles of thunder so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: I'm 75 feet too far west for the storm that is exploding over me. It's up to five (5) rumbles of thunder so far. Blowing up right over The Broads. Surprise for the joy riders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Thank you! There is this too. It's pretty straightforward. http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/dualpol/Outreach/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 LCI +TSRA 24014G20KT, congrats @eekuasepinniW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: There is this too. It's pretty straightforward. http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/dualpol/Outreach/ Yep, that's what I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Of course Winni gets a storm. Shocked. And next week I'm doored just in time for my week up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Of course Winni gets a storm. Shocked. And next week I'm doored just in time for my week up there. We turn on the heat and grab the sweatshirts. Good news is that LCI was added as a Bufkit site though. And GFS data now hourly on that. So when you really want to analyze how deep the ugly air mass is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: We turn on the heat and grab the sweatshirts. Good news is that LCI was added as a Bufkit site though. And GFS data now hourly on that. Between the insane storm the other day where you were on the desk...and the weather this week....this was the time to be up there. I'll tell you...smartphones have really been awesome in terms of timing when to get back to shore or leave the beach. I've had several times already when I looked at radarscope on my phone and made the call to leave the beach, only to have a downpour and bolt of LTG hit within 30 seconds. Sometimes stuff just develops and goes from a TCU to CB in about 2 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Between the insane storm the other day where you were on the desk...and the weather this week....this was the time to be up there. I'll tell you...smartphones have really been awesome in terms of timing when to get back to shore or leave the beach. I've had several times already when I looked at radarscope on my phone and made the call to leave the beach, only to have a downpour and bolt of LTG hit within 30 seconds. Sometimes stuff just develops and goes from a TCU to CB in about 2 min. When thunder roars, check your phone to see how much time you have left to enjoy the outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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