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Convective Thread


weatherwiz

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Northwest flow aloft with passing shortwave will be the trigger for
any convection to develop. In fact, a complex of thunderstorms
across the Great Lakes may survive all the way to coastal plain
overnight.

Strong to perhaps severe storms are possible. Warm, moist airmass
remains over the region with K values well above 32C and increasing
850mb LLJ. CAPE values are forecasted to be near 1000 J/KG with
increasing 50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear and steep mid-level lapse
rates of 6.5 or greater. 850 mb moisture transport will advect
through the region riding along passing shortwave. All of these
features are lining up to create a linearly-organized convection
with damaging  winds being the main threat.

While the potential risk is increasing, still a lot of model
guidance spread. The GFS appears to be the outlier with no precip
overnight. The NAM pushes a cluster/MCS across the southern half of
the region which lines up with the RPM. THE UKMET and EC have kept
the cluster near and North of the Pike. So even through there is
still a spread on location the risk is still there.
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Saw FB pics of many trees uprooted in Kingfield last evening.  At our place 25 miles to the south, a much smaller cell gave us some booms and maybe 0.1" RA to go with the half inch from the morning TS.  The one really close shot from that earlier storm cut off power for a few minutes.  My wife heard the snap/click downstairs a split second before a dog-terrorizing double boom, and the breaker did its job.

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

3.40 Agawam

The heavy stuff set up right along the pike with a few stray cells moving through the valley late afternoon.  Nary a drop at my house in Btown, but we listened to thunder for what seemed like hours, while FFWs were being issued just south and west.

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5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

What model is best for tracking this sort of feature inside 24 hrs? 

It's not necessarily about which model is best at tracking these things as it is which model has a better handle of the environment and synoptic setup.  Typically MCS complexes and features will either ride along the axis of highest instability, highest theta-e air (which I suppose can be connected to axis of highest instability), or are aided by the nose of the mid-level jet and sort of ride along/with the jet max.  

As for tomorrow night I'm not seeing a whole much...obviously that can change if we have the instability in place b/c the s/w looks decent along with good height falls/modest shear but whatever happens just looks like it could be a dying complex which either traverses into SNE or goes to the SW...the later which seems more likely

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