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Convective Thread


weatherwiz

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It's days like today which show how important mid-level buoyancy really is in getting a solid severe and more in the way of widespread severe.  On day like today where you have 2500-3000 J of SBcape but only 1500 J MLcape and Ncape of 0.15 due to skinny cape profile.  This helps really accelerate parcels from the surface into the lowest few kilometers but above that where temperature change with height levels out the upward acceleration just isn't as potent.  This is why you'll see storms really struggle to develop uodeafts to penetrate a certain level.  Even on a day like today where shear was solid.  Updrafts just didn't have the oomph to utilize all the wind potential 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That just shows how bad the NWS reporting is. The local media and tv do a much better job of communicstung severe wx and subsequent damage than our govt agencies do. Wiz thought that was all that happened today . And the sad part is that map Wiz posted will go down as official for today , missing a lot of reports 

Dude that map shown from that woman is from all hazards. Wiz only showed a SPC graphic that specifically only shows wind and hail. :facepalm:

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And her map shows other wind damage they have no clue about . Here's another example

 

How is Ryan soliciting damage reports evidence of damage?

The NWS does the same thing. We think damage occurred in a certain area, so we ask for reports.

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Many of these high SBcape/high PWAT environments really tend to struggle (when you have poor lapse rates) and it makes sense really.  The high SBcape helps to really accelerate parcels from the surface through the lower levels but when you have such a moist environment you get water loading which weakens the upward acceleration of the parcels...couple this with further weakened upward acceleration (or decreasing upward acceleration) due to poor lapse rates and updrafts really struggle to become rather robust.  In the clouds since most of the moisture is located within a certain portion of the cloud (and as you ascend really high you get ice crystals ) the main hazard becomes just torrential rains with the winds coming merely from downward momentum transport and not really due to any wind shear that is in place (although a percentage of that is drawn down).  

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16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You want to be on the front or north of it a bit . There's going to be several TORs this afternoon 

 

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I've crushed it last few weeks. Really really good work done 

how many TORs were there yesterday?

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Yesterday afternoon WFH in Schenectady no lightning within 20 miles except for one about a mile from my house.  All quiet with a soft rain falling.  I jumped about a foot because at first I thought something blew up by the sound of it.  One big BANG but then after a couple of seconds it rumbled a bit so I recognized what it was.  And then that was it for the day.  The guys on the golf course maybe a quarter of a mile where it hit the ground must have lost a couple of strokes easy.    

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So ...SPC has SLIGT to the door-step out west...  

I'm noticing the initial towers/cu-fields are moving nearly along the ridge lines are immediately astride on parallel trajectories.. Makes me wonder if training might set up out west where any NYS activity might trigger action farther E/terrain enhancing?    Haven't seen any hodo's  -

Those of us into cloud videography ... can almost envision that as a nice day to find a perch and set up the tri-pod for some time-lapsing of back-building towers.. 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So ...SPC has SLIGT to the door-step out west...  

I'm noticing the initial towers/cu-fields are moving nearly along the ridge lines are immediately astride on parallel trajectories.. Makes me wonder if training might set up out west where any NYS activity might trigger action farther E/terrain enhancing?    Haven't seen any hodo's  -

Those of us into cloud videography ... can almost envision that as a nice day to find a perch and set up the tri-pod for some time-lapsing of back-building towers.. 

Maybe more of a problem for the Whites vs. Greens? Initial anvils look like they may have a slight NE component to them, favoring training on the SW/NE oriented Whites.

HRRR showing two lines. One being the enhancement of already ongoing convection in NY, then another round developing on the tail end of that complex this evening.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Maybe more of a problem for the Whites vs. Greens? Initial anvils look like they may have a slight NE component to them, favoring training on the SW/NE oriented Whites.

HRRR showing two lines. One being the enhancement of already ongoing convection in NY, then another round developing on the tail end of that complex this evening.

yeah tho - that's more what I was thinking ... the stuff on the eastern edge of the deep layer instability profiles... which would be Berk's to Whites - right along that axis in there I could see FF block or two... nice sun-set side-lit nebular CB plumes too.   

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah tho - that's more what I was thinking ... the stuff on the eastern edge of the deep layer instability profiles... which would be Berk's to Whites - right along that axis in there I could see FF block or two... nice sun-set side-lit nebular CB plumes too.   

RAP forecast mean motion is almost right along the Whites (220/10kt, so slow movers too), right movers more like 240 or so. Shear is really on the marginal side today, so it may be more of a heavy rain threat than severe.

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5 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

RAP forecast mean motion is almost right along the Whites (220/10kt, so slow movers too), right movers more like 240 or so. Shear is really on the marginal side today, so it may be more of a heavy rain threat than severe.

it appears that happening now... Couple few cells have cores that appear stationary while the vil debris rains downwind some.   Plus..the 240 axis cells derailing to the east.

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