powderfreak Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: HRRRX has the front well S of the Pike by mid afternoon. Only firing convection near the south shore. I for one am shocked he is going with the solution or set-up that would yield the most excitement...especially with a screen name of DamageInTolland you'd think he'd run on the more tame side of things and not toss all model data that might lead to a boring afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 These always push south rather quick. I would not toss HRRX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I for one am shocked he is going with the solution or set-up that would yield the most excitement...especially with a screen name of DamageInTolland you'd think he'd run on the more tame side of things and not toss all model data that might lead to a boring afternoon. Since we tossed the NAM, here's a wild sounding from the GFS. Meh shear, meh lapse rates, straight hodographs, but PWATs are nearly 2" if you like heavy rain. Actually I would say the model he's telling us to toss is showing a better chance for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: These always push south rather quick. I would not toss HRRX. This afternoon's round has already shoved the theta-e boundary towards Long Island. That means it needs to get back to the Pike tomorrow to set the stage. Can it happen? Sure. But will it happen? What's the forcing, when the pressure gradient is pointing the other way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This afternoon's round has already shoved the theta-e boundary towards Long Island. That means it needs to get back to the Pike tomorrow to set the stage. Can it happen? Sure. But will it happen? What's the forcing, when the pressure gradient is pointing the other way? Yea when that front pushed into Sect it was a red flag for tomorrow. Still will probably rain but meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Just meh everything. Front to NYC by 7:00 am. Cancel any and all storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just meh everything. Front to NYC by 7:00 am. Cancel any and all storms! Lashing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This afternoon's round has already shoved the theta-e boundary towards Long Island. That means it needs to get back to the Pike tomorrow to set the stage. Can it happen? Sure. But will it happen? What's the forcing, when the pressure gradient is pointing the other way? yeah look at the 3-hr theta-e changes...yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 I do think CT would have the best shot in New England of anything interesting...particularly south coast up to Ginxy. North of Pike and certainly RT2, just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I do think CT would have the best shot in New England of anything interesting...particularly south coast up to Ginxy. North of Pike and certainly RT2, just wet. Think long island will do best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 No chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 The NAM NEST does show something going through Waterbury/Naugatuck around 5:00 PM tomorrow while I'm in class. Thankfully this class has a window and I sit right next to the window and it faces NW!!!!!!!!! If tomorrow was going to be big I was planning on skipping but forgot we have a quiz...WHO GIVES QUIZZES IN SUMMER CLASSES?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 No posts about the late night tornado warning from KALY NE of Utica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: No posts about the late night tornado warning from KALY NE of Utica? meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 6 hours ago, yoda said: No posts about the late night tornado warning from KALY NE of Utica? that's in NY, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 This is one hell of a backdoor for mid July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: This is one hell of a backdoor for mid July. Cape Ann has a September morn BDCF went through at 3am , winds gusty NE 22mph air temp 59°f.. dewpoint 56° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: This is one hell of a backdoor for mid July. Down our way it's imposing a fantastic gradient ... It's 90/70 at JFK in NYC at 9:30 AM while it is contrasting, 64 F at KFIT ..and in the low to mid 50s in SW Maine! it is something to behold if one is privy on baser climatology for these sort of things...that's way more akin to early May .. It's been an odd summer. We had more cool days than one would imagine possible given the longer duration means and averages. Two heat waves early on broke records for achieving them ...so early on; yet, transpired during a general 6-week period of at or below normal. Kind of odd to say the least. By the way...that's dangerous heat in SW zones... this afternoon. If the sun continues unabated they'll be theta-e pooled under 18 C at 850 with tallish mixing depths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Hi res vis loop betrays the position of the BD and it is actively still moving SW... It's probably a couple hours from NE CT and should gather momentum as destablization takes over SW and helps to fluid mechanically pull it SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Another big day as we've been discussing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 It's going to be interesting to see how that BD lays down moving forward over the next several hours and comparing to those sort of robust/optimistic tools - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 Think potential will be southern CT, SW RI, down into SE NY/Long Island and NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 There'll probably end up being some nice supercell structure over Long Island Sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 With the front sagging south and approaching MCV almost acting as a warm front, I have to think someone near PVD-IJD-BDL on south..maybe up to CEF is going to get inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: With the front sagging south and approaching MCV almost acting as a warm front, I have to think someone near PVD-IJD-BDL on south..maybe up to CEF is going to get inches of rain. yeah flash flooding may actually be the biggest concern today. The 12z NAM NEST is quite aggressive though with a rather intense looking line developing across central CT and sagging southward. I'm also curious about something...I don't place a whole lot of stock in this "potential hazard box" but I wonder what algorithms or whatever is used to determine the type. I mean look at this sounding...I don't see anything that indicates a tornado potential. I mean I guess you do have SW winds in the lowest 5000' and more WSW above that. If the winds in the lowest 5000' were stronger and more speed shear I guess maybe I could see it...idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Had a good 15 minute storm go through Amherst around 7:30 this morning. Still feeling pretty swampy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 14z HRRR max updraft helicity swath through Tolland County. Let's hope for a roof ripper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, Arnold214 said: 14z HRRR max updraft helicity swath through Tolland County. Let's hope for a roof ripper. that's about as far down as funnel's can make it in Tolland apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: With the front sagging south and approaching MCV almost acting as a warm front, I have to think someone near PVD-IJD-BDL on south..maybe up to CEF is going to get inches of rain. I mean I think it's pretty safe to say it'll be along and south of that front. The threat most likely won't line up the way SPC is drawn. I would be shocked if marginal severe made it into areas that are in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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