Hoth Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, radarman said: The 6/6/10 tornado watch probs were something you'd see in a high risk too. And we know how that went This couple day stretch on the calendar does seem to produce though, and then a lag before it seems to ramp up again. Hard to say if it's just low sample size or if there is a climatological reason... My guess is probably the former, but who knows? 6/6 honestly may be the most painful bust of my life...maybe second to Feb '10. That was brutal, but should've been tipped off when lapse rates were anemic and every tower just got ripped to shreds by the shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Mainly SE sfc winds throughout the region. Something to watch Is this what is meant when you guys say "backed" winds? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 25 minutes ago, Hoth said: Is this what is meant when you guys say "backed" winds? Just curious. This is something that's always confused me but yes. However, some people also refer to this is a veering wind. there is a reason which distinguishes it but I get confused with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is something that's always confused me but yes. However, some people also refer to this is a veering wind. there is a reason which distinguishes it but I get confused with it A SE surface wind is both a backed wind, and also can be referred to as veering, IF the winds turn clockwise with height relative to that SE surface wind. It is backed compared to the rest of the wind field, and the entire wind field is veering. (Ex: SE at Surface, S at 925 mb, WSW at 800mb, SW or W at 500 and up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Just now, Phillifan22 said: A SE surface wind is both a backed wind, and also can be referred to as veering, IF the winds turn clockwise with height relative to that SE surface wind. It is backed compared to the rest of the wind field, and the entire wind field is veering. (Ex: SE at Surface, S at 925 mb, WSW at 800mb, SW or W at 500 and up). Also: Veered or Veering is the winds turning clockwise with height. Backed or backing is the winds turning counterclockwise with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Hoping to get a few storms to chase after work... Could be a fun if the sun pops out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 Thank you!!! Not confused anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 1630z OTLK seems to suggest best chance for an isolated tornado would be in the Hudson River Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Still socked in down in southern Ct. Expectations firmly in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0926 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Areas affected...Far northeast PA...Eastern NY...VT...NH...Western ME...Western MA...Northwest CT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311629Z - 311730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next hour or so with the strongest storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed over portions of the region to cover this threat. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown an increase in cumulus development across eastern NY, within the area of broadly confluent surface flow ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Forcing for ascent provided by both the modest surface convergence and the shortwave trough is expected to result in thunderstorm development during the next hour or two. Low-levels are not particularly warm or moist but continued daytime heating should contribute to steep low-level lapse rates and adequate insolation to remove any remaining convective inhibition. Additionally, cool mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -19 to -20 deg C at 500 mb) will result in MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg, despite dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. Strong mid-level flow will support updraft organization and hail development within the more robust updrafts. Quick storm motion and downward momentum transfer of the enhanced flow aloft could also contribute to some damaging wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed to address the resulting severe threat. ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/31/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 Just made it to NH. Sun is out!!! Some of the latest soundings looks really solid for later on. Should see a few big hailers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Just made it to NH. Sun is out!!! Some of the latest soundings looks really solid for later on. Should see a few big hailers Just curiously, why did you pick NH when you're already so close to the HV from Danbury? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, radarman said: Just curiously, why did you pick NH when you're already so close to the HV from Danbury? I'm back in West Hartford now but I picked NH b/c my friend who I usually chase with lives here and he was in a car accident several weeks back and is nervous about driving long distances b/c it's not completely right until insurance stuff goes through and it can be fixed. We will probably end up going into southern VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Phillifan22 said: Also: Veered or Veering is the winds turning clockwise with height. Backed or backing is the winds turning counterclockwise with height. I've also seen this being applied to surface winds, such as them backing from NE to NW as LP to our east travels northerly. Or veering from NE to S if the center passes to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Sorry Wiz, no mention of tornado in the watchbox... probs are pretty ugly, 50/10 on both wind and hail URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut Western and Central Massachusetts Southwest Maine New Hampshire Eastern New York Vermont * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over central/eastern New York and spread eastward across the watch area this afternoon and early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of hail and gusty/damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm back in West Hartford now but I picked NH b/c my friend who I usually chase with lives here and he was in a car accident several weeks back and is nervous about driving long distances b/c it's not completely right until insurance stuff goes through and it can be fixed. We will probably end up going into southern VT I'd hit Wma sVT SNH where you see these gravity waves at low levels, notice the low level junk left behind elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Lapse rates will allow these to survive right to coast tonight. All bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lapse rates will allow these to survive right to coast tonight. All bang HRRR is very meh for that, other than a coast scraper after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: HRRR is very meh for that, other than a coast scraper after midnight. HRRR blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lapse rates will allow these to survive right to coast tonight. All bang Well if two claps of thunder and a brief down pour gets you excited...power to ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I'd hit Wma sVT SNH where you see these gravity waves at low levels, notice the low level junk left behind elsewhere. Good call! I thought those were gravity waves but weren't too sure. Good hearing here too with dews up near 60 and really strong shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 Thunder!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Thunder!!!!!! Sort of a catch-22. Nice to see fireworks but would be better to capatalize on the sun providing more instability. It's only 2 pm. May want to slightly reposition to a location that still has the sun out and hasn't seen any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Sort of a catch-22. Nice to see fireworks but would be better to capatalize on the sun providing more instability. It's only 2 pm. May want to slightly reposition to a location that still has the sun out and hasn't seen any rain. Hopefully after this we get back into sun. As long as this doesn't yield new development this one storm can at least maybe help add some low level moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 A few positive CG's around us now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 Hail!!! B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 Had a few seconds of pea hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 More hail!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: More hail!!! Congrats on pea sized hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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