Convective Thread

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The areas north of the pike have gotten a few hits over the last couple of weeks. Not so much to the south as of yet, except for Cape Cod the other day. 

 

Surprised Wiz hasn't commented on the 3KM NAM for Tuesday. Some impressive kinematics as modeled.

I may have jumped the gun a bit a few days ago.  Thought we could potentially see a decent sized event Tuesday but not as confident now.  I would really like to see better mid level support...be it fatter cape, stronger height falls (something to give updrafts a bigger boost once they get up past 15-20K.  

Abyways yes the kinematics are certainly something to note and a good deal of low level directional shear modeled too.  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Has there ever been an actual study ... however officiated/refereed or novice aside ...that compared the deep layer parametric design of all tornado outbreak days in the history of New England?  

I'm asking because I wonder what the role of the south coastal marine intrusion plays as a mitigation factor in super cell maintenance ... east of say a NYC to PWM line.

Everywhere SE of that line is in reality a peninsula .. . swathed over by the smell of ocean air way inland at times.  I can't tell you how many times I've walked out of doors here at some 30+ miles inland during summer afternoons over the years .. and could swear the docks must be right down the road.

I have also noticed over the years that there is a distinct tendency for all forms of SBCAPE -related convection to wind down pretty quickly upon crossing that proverbial line. And, pretty commonly when that happens you have winds at less than 220 degrees on the dial.   Related to this observation, there seems to be more tor over interior central and NE Maine than down this way, too ...the impetus being, those regions are far enough away from the 190 degree mash up low tide smells mxed with surface ozone. 

Obviously we've had tornadoes down here - some have been biggin's too.  Munson, and Worcester etc...  But, I wonder if those outbreaks had vector structures that were rotated a bit.  Instead of 700 mb west flow with SSE at the surface... it was 700mb NW flow with SSW at the surface...etc... 

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Has there ever been an actual study ... however officiated/refereed or novice aside ...that compared the deep layer parametric design of all tornado outbreak days in the history of New England?  

I'm asking because I wonder what the role of the south coastal marine intrusion plays as a mitigation factor in super cell maintenance ... east of say a NYC to PWM line.

Everywhere SE of that line is in reality a peninsula .. . swathed over by the smell of ocean air way inland at times.  I can't tell you how many times I've walked out of doors here at some 30+ miles inland during summer afternoons over the years .. and could swear the docks must be right down the road.

I have also noticed over the years that there is a distinct tendency for all forms of SBCAPE -related convection to wind down pretty quickly upon crossing that proverbial line. And, pretty commonly when that happens you have winds at less than 220 degrees on the dial.   Related to this observation, there seems to be more tor over interior central and NE Maine than down this way, too ...the impetus being, those regions are far enough away from the 190 degree mash up low tide smells mxed with surface ozone. 

Obviously we've had tornadoes down here - some have been biggin's too.  Munson, and Worcester etc...  But, I wonder if those outbreaks had vector structures that were rotated a bit.  Instead of 700 mb west flow with SSE at the surface... it was 700mb NW flow with SSW at the surface...etc... 

SPC uses this (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/) for estimates of the environment on their mesoanalysis page.

I think the "NW flow" outbreaks certainly benefit most of the region as you say, but I think we also need to have sufficient moisture and lapse rates to get the CAPE. That's usually the limiting factor, a robust updraft to help stretch the low level shear.

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Has there ever been an actual study ... however officiated/refereed or novice aside ...that compared the deep layer parametric design of all tornado outbreak days in the history of New England?  

I'm asking because I wonder what the role of the south coastal marine intrusion plays as a mitigation factor in super cell maintenance ... east of say a NYC to PWM line.

Everywhere SE of that line is in reality a peninsula .. . swathed over by the smell of ocean air way inland at times.  I can't tell you how many times I've walked out of doors here at some 30+ miles inland during summer afternoons over the years .. and could swear the docks must be right down the road.

I have also noticed over the years that there is a distinct tendency for all forms of SBCAPE -related convection to wind down pretty quickly upon crossing that proverbial line. And, pretty commonly when that happens you have winds at less than 220 degrees on the dial.   Related to this observation, there seems to be more tor over interior central and NE Maine than down this way, too ...the impetus being, those regions are far enough away from the 190 degree mash up low tide smells mxed with surface ozone. 

Obviously we've had tornadoes down here - some have been biggin's too.  Munson, and Worcester etc...  But, I wonder if those outbreaks had vector structures that were rotated a bit.  Instead of 700 mb west flow with SSE at the surface... it was 700mb NW flow with SSW at the surface...etc... 

I know the Worcester tornado day had SW surface winds.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I know the Worcester tornado day had SW surface winds.

Likewise 6/1/11, ORH was around 200-220 all day.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

SPC uses this (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/) for estimates of the environment on their mesoanalysis page.

I think the "NW flow" outbreaks certainly benefit most of the region as you say, but I think we also need to have sufficient moisture and lapse rates to get the CAPE. That's usually the limiting factor, a robust updraft to help stretch the low level shear.

Yeah...  which is to say, we don't mean that we don't need base ingredients either.   But, often our EML/conditional lapse rates do come in on NW flows with transport of continental charged DPs...  But, that also can mean a capped triggerless scenario too.  96/73 for the loss -

Just in mind's eye ..I tend to think there is a narrower window of set up kinematics ...and that the ocean is a huge protector otherwise.  I wouldn't be surprised if east of that NYC-PWM rought axis we have less occurrences (relative to any) to the 180 wind direction like they do in the Plains.

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha ...I should also be honest...  Whenever I read "...the winds are nicely backed, too" ..couched in flavored posts of optimism, I tend to cringe a little.  I just want folks to consider that a S or SSE flow ... heh...

[Typhoon Tip]

further after thought:

we can sustain a 220 wind and have a meso-beta scaled pocked where that wind ends up more S because of topographical forcing, which is that region out there along the CT River Valley.   It's almost like "pulse rotation" results... triggering super-cell structures that are not feeding off of a synoptic shearing event - interesting.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...  which is to say, we don't mean that we don't need base ingredients either.   But, often our EML/conditional lapse rates do come in on NW flows with transport of continental charged DPs...  But, that also can mean a capped triggerless scenario too.  96/73 for the loss -

Just in mind's eye ..I tend to think there is a narrower window of set up kinematics ...and that the ocean is a huge protector otherwise.  I wouldn't be surprised if east of that NYC-PWM rought axis we have less occurrences (relative to any) to the 180 wind direction like they do in the Plains.

I was meaning that we can do it on S or SE wind directions, we just need juicy air to make it happen. Otherwise, I agree that we need to keep the marine influence at bay.

I think our ideal set up is for the EML to advect in from the W or SW, but quickly get squashed by trofing just to our NE. Best of both worlds, instability and shear.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I was meaning that we can do it on S or SE wind directions, we just need juicy air to make it happen. Otherwise, I agree that we need to keep the marine influence at bay.

I think our ideal set up is for the EML to advect in from the W or SW, but quickly get squashed by trofing just to our NE. Best of both worlds, instability and shear.

Sure we can... 

The idea is more about lowering the frequency - not so much absolutes.  We may be "less" likely to succeed super cell growth/structures over the faux peninsula of SNE, if/when sustaining that type of flow.  I think we agree there... 

 

 

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Likewise 6/1/11, ORH was around 200-220 all day.

I would argue that in general, the farther east you go from the Plains, the less you need "backed" flow for tornadoes/outbreaks.  I mean, it's nice to have (except in cases of marine taint that you guys are talking about) but near/east of the MS River, southerly or south southwesterly low level flow doesn't tend to cause problems with low level moisture like it can farther west.  

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I would argue that in general, the farther east you go from the Plains, the less you need "backed" flow for tornadoes/outbreaks.  I mean, it's nice to have (except in cases of marine taint that you guys are talking about) but near/east of the MS River, southerly or south southwesterly low level flow doesn't tend to cause problems with low level moisture like it can farther west.  

Very true. More often we don't want to advect the moisture in off the Atlantic, we'd rather get leftovers from the Gulf of Mexico. Either that or some deep, subtropical connection from the Bermuda Triangle.

[weatherwiz]

46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Has there ever been an actual study ... however officiated/refereed or novice aside ...that compared the deep layer parametric design of all tornado outbreak days in the history of New England?  

I'm asking because I wonder what the role of the south coastal marine intrusion plays as a mitigation factor in super cell maintenance ... east of say a NYC to PWM line.

Everywhere SE of that line is in reality a peninsula .. . swathed over by the smell of ocean air way inland at times.  I can't tell you how many times I've walked out of doors here at some 30+ miles inland during summer afternoons over the years .. and could swear the docks must be right down the road.

I have also noticed over the years that there is a distinct tendency for all forms of SBCAPE -related convection to wind down pretty quickly upon crossing that proverbial line. And, pretty commonly when that happens you have winds at less than 220 degrees on the dial.   Related to this observation, there seems to be more tor over interior central and NE Maine than down this way, too ...the impetus being, those regions are far enough away from the 190 degree mash up low tide smells mxed with surface ozone. 

Obviously we've had tornadoes down here - some have been biggin's too.  Munson, and Worcester etc...  But, I wonder if those outbreaks had vector structures that were rotated a bit.  Instead of 700 mb west flow with SSE at the surface... it was 700mb NW flow with SSW at the surface...etc... 

Speaking of studies sine there are 1000 different projects I'd like to do.  Are there any jobs in meteorology which are strictly research based?  Or is this just something you do on the side?  

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Speaking of studies sine there are 1000 different projects I'd like to do.  Are there any jobs in meteorology which are strictly research based?  Or is this just something you do on the side?  

Plenty ... but it will be harder to find them at just the B.S. level of degree -

For research, you can get good grades?   Then go to grad school and end up a t.a. grad student.  You'll get paid a measly stipend, room and board, and while you engage in starving ... you'll also research for your thesis project (not to mention taking required course work along the way) ... You can enjoy what spare time you can find grading papers under the iron yoke of a will-stiflingly arrogant PHD professor advisor  - ...j/k.

That's the tired arc of the beleaguered grad student cliche... Seriously though the point is, if you get into advanced higher education you can probably end up making a living in research hooked at first into academia before [possibly] ending up at corporations that specialize in environmental/atmospheric research via governmental grants and/or those of private industry.  But again, that's not really at the B.S. level. 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Plenty ... but it will be harder to find them at just the B.S. level of degree -

For research, you can get good grades?   Then go to grad school and end up a t.a. grad student.  You'll get paid a measly stipend, room and board, and while you engage in starving ... you'll also research for your thesis project (not to mention taking required course work along the way) ... You can enjoy what spare time you can find grading papers under the iron yoke of a will-stiflingly arrogant PHD professor advisor  - ...j/k.

That's the tired arc of the beleaguered grad student cliche... Seriously though the point is, if you get into advanced higher education you can probably end up making a living in research hooked at first into academia before [possibly] ending up at corporations that specialize in environmental/atmospheric research via governmental grants and/or those of private industry.  But again, that's not really at the B.S. level. 

I need to make a decision real soon as to what I want to do. I always wanted to go for ny doctorate (and obviously I still can) but I honestly don't think I'm smart enough to handle further mathematics and the mathematics required.  I barely made it through differential equations and physics is a major struggle.  Granted I don't have the time to devote to studying so I'm sure if I had the time I could maybe understand things better.  

But I'll be 28 this fall and I'm tired of working these dead-end minimum wage jobs and having to work 50+ hours a week and just making enough to pay bills.  I just want to get a decent enough job to where I can settle down, pay bills, have some spending money, and save. Even a measly $25K per year job to start I can do wonders with. My current thinking is I do apply for TV jobs maybe beginning next summer since it looks like I will finish in 3 semesters and if I do get something I can always do masters online and I can do research on the side and attempt to have things published.  I know people talk about the TV market and not having much available but I'm willing to move anywhere and get a second job if I have to in order to just get in.

I would love to be able to just do research like 24/7 though.  I miss having the free time to just do stuff.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I need to make a decision real soon as to what I want to do. I always wanted to go for ny doctorate (and obviously I still can) but I honestly don't think I'm smart enough to handle further mathematics and the mathematics required.  I barely made it through differential equations and physics is a major struggle.  Granted I don't have the time to devote to studying so I'm sure if I had the time I could maybe understand things better.  

But I'll be 28 this fall and I'm tired of working these dead-end minimum wage jobs and having to work 50+ hours a week and just making enough to pay bills.  I just want to get a decent enough job to where I can settle down, pay bills, have some spending money, and save. Even a measly $25K per year job to start I can do wonders with. My current thinking is I do apply for TV jobs maybe beginning next summer since it looks like I will finish in 3 semesters and if I do get something I can always do masters online and I can do research on the side and attempt to have things published.  I know people talk about the TV market and not having much available but I'm willing to move anywhere and get a second job if I have to in order to just get in.

I would love to be able to just do research like 24/7 though.  I miss having the free time to just do stuff.

 

 

 

well...  you may want to reserve ...perhaps 75% of your expectation bandwidth for the very real possibility that in ten years, you'll find yourself not working a career directly involved in Meteorology.  You may find better probability post B.S. finding adjunct career pathways... Maybe you can cleave your way back in that way.  I sense a kind of innocent naivety in your words to be frank, that suggest a kind of unrealistic expectation about what it means to get a Meteorology degree.  I don't want to dissuade you - just that you need to be realistic about the prospects of career paths with just a B.S. in the field. Particularly while being a relative unknown - this forum, doesn't count

Unless:  you get into higher education (beyond the B.S. level);  are some intellectual maverick that can posit theorems that baffle science into new realms of understanding the cosmos while working as a patent clerk; are pretty good looking with some weird innate skill/talent behind the camera and are well connected; you get extraordinarily lucky.  

Create your own luck:  maybe also consider researching geographical regions to up your prospects.  Not all areas of the country have outfits/industries in line with what one can do with a Met-related degree.  Others may have more... Like, coastal regions that have marine interests.  Military even... they'll take you all the way to 40 years of age and with a degree, they'll stick you into OCS programs - you could probably get into research programs at petty officer ranks, put in your four years, and get into grad school with a leg up and credits. 

If you're thinking you're going to bounce around CT with a BS degree working as a rising rock-star in the field ...good luck.

[Hoth]

Maybe you can consult with commodities hedgies or utilities on the energy market or special situations where weather can have real implications for demand/price. Pro speculators or companies just trying to mitigate their exposure will pay big bucks for an edge. 

[Hoth]

Also a degree in meteorology demonstrates quantitative proficiency, useful to employers in any number of fields. Charlie Munger at Berkshire has an undergrad meteorology degree to go with the Harvard JD. Point is, even if you have a hard time finding work within the field, your days of minimum wage will be over. 

[Damage In Tolland]

TOR threat tomorrow morning Ryan thinks 

[OceanStWx]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

TOR threat tomorrow morning Ryan thinks 

It does look a bit sunrise surprise-y tomorrow morning.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It does look a bit sunrise surprise-y tomorrow morning.

Ryan has been all over the spinner threat. We spin

[powderfreak]

On 7/9/2017 at 3:06 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

further after thought:

we can sustain a 220 wind and have a meso-beta scaled pocked where that wind ends up more S because of topographical forcing, which is that region out there along the CT River Valley.   It's almost like "pulse rotation" results... triggering super-cell structures that are not feeding off of a synoptic shearing event - interesting.

Yeah this type of terrain driven wind backing is common in the Hudson/Champlain/CT Valleys...those bigger valleys causing that extra low level shear as a result of their nearby topography channeling winds more south to north instead of SW to NE.

[weatherwiz]

On 7/9/2017 at 4:37 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

 

well...  you may want to reserve ...perhaps 75% of your expectation bandwidth for the very real possibility that in ten years, you'll find yourself not working a career directly involved in Meteorology.  You may find better probability post B.S. finding adjunct career pathways... Maybe you can cleave your way back in that way.  I sense a kind of innocent naivety in your words to be frank, that suggest a kind of unrealistic expectation about what it means to get a Meteorology degree.  I don't want to dissuade you - just that you need to be realistic about the prospects of career paths with just a B.S. in the field. Particularly while being a relative unknown - this forum, doesn't count

Unless:  you get into higher education (beyond the B.S. level);  are some intellectual maverick that can posit theorems that baffle science into new realms of understanding the cosmos while working as a patent clerk; are pretty good looking with some weird innate skill/talent behind the camera and are well connected; you get extraordinarily lucky.  

Create your own luck:  maybe also consider researching geographical regions to up your prospects.  Not all areas of the country have outfits/industries in line with what one can do with a Met-related degree.  Others may have more... Like, coastal regions that have marine interests.  Military even... they'll take you all the way to 40 years of age and with a degree, they'll stick you into OCS programs - you could probably get into research programs at petty officer ranks, put in your four years, and get into grad school with a leg up and credits. 

If you're thinking you're going to bounce around CT with a BS degree working as a rising rock-star in the field ...good luck.

I appreciate your advice and don't mean to come across as naive.  I am definitely trying to be as realistic as possible with my options. I completely understand I'll need a masters...I'm just a bit worried about the work load and how difficult further education would be as far as the math is concerned.  But I have my heart set on moving outside of CT ASAP

[Damage In Tolland]

Banged hard at 5:00 AM

[eekuasepinniW]

getting ambushed with miserymist

[butterfish55]

Ended up with just under 2".  Crazy rates, came in just about 2 hours. 

[weatherwiz]

Nice storms overnught.  Even a few "interesting" features but nothing impressive  doesn't seem like we get much this afternoon...looks like subsidence inversion in place

[Damage In Tolland]

41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nice storms overnught.  Even a few "interesting" features but nothing impressive  doesn't seem like we get much this afternoon...looks like subsidence inversion in place

Yeah afternoon is a no go. 

Thursday is the day to really watch. Lots in place for a widespread severe day Pike south 

 

 

[weatherwiz]

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah afternoon is a no go. 

Thursday is the day to really watch. Lots in place for a widespread severe day Pike south 

 

 

yeah Thursday is intriguing.  Have to see if we do get that plume of steeper lapse rates to move overhead.  Even with meh lapse rates though dewpoints looks to be quite juicy with good moisture pooling and shear doesn't look too bad either.  Could see a few supercells Thursday afternoon

[weatherwiz]

This is one heck of a sounding.  Ample shear, plenty of cape, good llvl turning.  From southern CT