weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2017 Author Share Posted July 6, 2017 I'm thinking that we see two areas of heavy rainfall tomorrow morning and lasting through the early afternoon. First area should be from central/southern CT then traversing towards the NW corner of the state as we approach the afternoon hours. Here we have a very good juxtaposition of fairly strong llvl winds (advecting in moisture off the Atlantic), decent frontogenesis, increasing theta-e and high PWAT values. There should also be enhanced llvl convergence thanks to developing sfc low tracking just south of CT (if not perhaps even inland a bit). The second area should be from SE CT into much of RI and into SE MA. Looks like a second area of enhanced frontogenesis across this area plus the ingredients mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 gfs was way overdone already in central PA today, low confidence in its robust solutions north of 95 for tonight and tomorrow. I kind of see more of a shredded mess like the rgem depicts, although i could see a decent first round early morning for wct...but other than that, i dont see it being a complete washout like on air mets initially thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2017 Author Share Posted July 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs was way overdone already in central PA today, low confidence in its robust solutions north of 95 for tonight and tomorrow. I kind of see more of a shredded mess like the rgem depicts, although i could see a decent first round early morning for wct...but other than that, i dont see it being a complete washout like on air mets initially thought. I think what's supposed to help with our rain potential is the development/strengthening of the sfc low, increased theta-e, increasing frontogenesis, and stronger aid from increasing LLJ The biggest question though with regards to the heavy rain threat is just how far north the warm front penetrates...this is also crucial in determining whether there is the potential for a quick tornado along the south coast...18z GFS bufkit profile for Groton wasn't too shabby looking around 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I think what's supposed to help with our rain potential is the development/strengthening of the sfc low, increased theta-e, increasing frontogenesis, and stronger aid from increasing LLJ The biggest question though with regards to the heavy rain threat is just how far north the warm front penetrates...this is also crucial in determining whether there is the potential for a quick tornado along the south coast...18z GFS bufkit profile for Groton wasn't too shabby looking around 18z. Yea, gfs has the front pretty far north. The nam reaches the 84 corridor. It's a nowcast overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2017 Author Share Posted July 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, gfs has the front pretty far north. The nam reaches the 84 corridor. It's a nowcast overnight. Past history I think favors the front staying more south than north but we'll see. Even if the front does push inland the dirty warm sector may be so filled with rain that there is little instability (despite good theta-e air/high dews)...or at least enough for convection to work with. But even solid showers may show signs of rotation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 The wagons went south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The wagons went south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Wagons North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 pouring already .3 at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Yea, its north. looks like the gfs with the main batch over nnj and seny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Nice sucker hole here most of the morning so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 One can only wish the gfs scores a coop like this 6 months from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Looks south to me . Sliding ese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 000 FXUS61 KOKX 071210 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY && . NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Several factors, the latest trends in radar, high res models, and 06Z guidance all pointing toward the axis of heaviest rain across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern CT, That being the case, have shifted the axis north of the coast, but still forecasting 1-2 inches region-wide. Ingredients are coming together for several hours of moderate to heavy rainfall across the area this morning. An upper trough emerging from the Ohio Valley will aid the development of a frontal wave that will pass in close proximity to Long Island this morning, and then east of New England this evening. The combination of deep-layered moisture and lift will allow for moderate to heavy banded rainfall along and just north of the low track. Additionally, mesoscale bands of localized heavy rainfall are possible with several inches of rainfall and flash flooding of urban/poor drainage areas. The axis of heaviest rainfall at this time appears to be shifting north of the coast, where the best frontogenetic forcing exists. This may allow for a widespread moderate to heavy showers across these areas, while stronger convective elements may be present closer to the coast due to better instability. However, the severe weather threat is low. While LCLs are low in this environment, the best low-level shear will likely be just south with the front and the instability is only marginal. The rain exits the area by early afternoon across far eastern locations, with the potential for some late afternoon/early evening showers/isolated thunderstorms across the interior due to weak instability and differential heating across the hills north and west of NYC. && . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 I think Kevin's gonna get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 The edge of the heavy stuff has arrived, feels like a spring cutoff....pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 33 minutes ago, Hoth said: I think Kevin's gonna get smoked. 1.01 my house so far. Wagons hitched by a thoroughbred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 S coast special as everything collapsing SE quickly now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1.01 my house so far. Wagons hitched by a thoroughbred Yea, most guidance had dxr in the .5 to .75 range and we already hit the high end with the bulk of it still to move thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: S coast special as everything collapsing SE quickly now Not many people can say they can bust on a nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Proves our point. S coast crusher . Lighter rain elsewhere http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Proves our point. S coast crusher . Lighter rain elsewhere http:// Old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Always has to be an argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Look! A wagon wheel! Hankering for a hunk of cheese! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Kevin slow on th draw, gypsies need something to chaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Pouring in Wrentham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Always has to be an argument. BDL. .23 last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: BDL. .23 last hour Is it collapsing SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Is it collapsing SE? S? No E? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 The initial surge of moisture was more S Coast but the stratiform rain shield has definitely been pretty solid further north, highest totals will probably be in areas that benefited from both, This area over to Kevin starting to catch up but has been somewhat of a local minimum due to this mornings dry slot between the two areas of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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