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Convective Thread


weatherwiz

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Well that was fun… Went up to the top of East Rock and watched two nice storms, first the Waterbury cell then the one to the southwest that took over. East Rock is a perfect spot for storm watching… As it happened, both shelf clouds petered out right before they were overhead, which wasn’t a bad thing - I barely even got rained on! Will look through my lousy cell cam pics and see if there’s anything worth posting… There definitely should be, both cells were impressive from up there.

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9 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

Well that was fun… Went up to the top of East Rock and watched two nice storms, first the Waterbury cell then the one to the southwest that took over. East Rock is a perfect spot for storm watching… As it happened, both shelf clouds petered out right before they were overhead, which wasn’t a bad thing - I barely even got rained on! Will look through my lousy cell cam pics and see if there’s anything worth posting… There definitely should be, both cells were impressive from up there.

When you come down the road, if you look carefully you can see a stand of fallen trees in the woods that fell in all different directions. It's not terribly obvious, but I think it's where that weak tornado first touched down last year.

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1 hour ago, ct_yankee said:

Well that was fun… Went up to the top of East Rock and watched two nice storms, first the Waterbury cell then the one to the southwest that took over. East Rock is a perfect spot for storm watching… As it happened, both shelf clouds petered out right before they were overhead, which wasn’t a bad thing - I barely even got rained on! Will look through my lousy cell cam pics and see if there’s anything worth posting… There definitely should be, both cells were impressive from up there.

Must have been awesome up there!

Screenshot_2017-06-30-19-52-54.png

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I saw this really cool pic of the Boston skyline on Eric Fisher's twitter feed:

pwC1y8x.jpg

 

New York State/New England: there should be another day of active weather tomorrow, with some 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE in New York/Pennsylvania and most likely some areas of 30-40 kts of shear. (NAM forecast for 21z, July 1)

auxN6CQ.jpg

 

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Ha ... we actually have pancaking CU structures out there amid 86/72 ...  That's impressive for that kind of CAPE showing some significant CIN must be lurking just off the deck.

I'd like to see that layer if we continue with this large sky-light that's opened up pan-wide across the region.  It'll get violated like a bad night for a prison inductee and something'll cut loose.

Buut, triggers?

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SPC just upped their tornado probs for VT/NH area to 5%, and they sound like they’re considering a tornado watch in new MD for that area. I’ll be going to central VT in a couple weeks… But not today. Situation doesn’t quite warrant a day trip. Maybe if mid-level lapse rates were better…

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14 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

SPC just upped their tornado probs for VT/NH area to 5%, and they sound like they’re considering a tornado watch in new MD for that area. I’ll be going to central VT in a couple weeks… But not today. Situation doesn’t quite warrant a day trip. Maybe if mid-level lapse rates were better…

Just clearing out now in my area of Central NH.  Got about .25" from early convection.  That is passing north.  Looks like I would be right about center of watch.  Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado.

Here's my cam link looking SW..   https://video.nest.com/live/bFA5Cp2MC1

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well the watch is up ..

there's talk of the tor/super cell threat ... 

shear profiles look good/positive however, i grew around these parts and a S wind is tough east of the CT River Valley because that becomes an inherent marine taint region.  SSW flow escaping the Jersy coast...crossing the bite water, then over the LI Sound seems to just theft enough joules of CAPE to protect.  You almost need the shear profiles to rotate around the dial some 45 deg ...with NW aloft and WSW at the surface.. 

But, we are in the upper 80s now with DP 67 to 72 so we are in the 90th percentile of CAPE production for this region of the country... sort of uncharted waters mixing up 40 kts of turning with that much potential energy. In other words, it may not matter having that back sfc wind if the CAPE is already there -

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