ice1972 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 I think she's croakin......lightning strikes are down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 And they haven't extended the SVR.....it's all elevated now..... Question....are the lightning strikes shown on RadarScope ground strikes only? Does lightning up in the clouds get registered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: And they haven't extended the SVR.....it's all elevated now..... Question....are the lightning strikes shown on RadarScope ground strikes only? Does lightning up in the clouds get registered? CG only I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 I hate CT......Central CT is where SVR goes to die.....FML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: CG only I think Thanks .....that's what I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Well definitely should not have stayed up for that one dance pos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Kind of interesting here. The CIPS top 15 analogs from 17.12z runs showing the 36 hour percentage of 1+ SVR (verifying last night at 00z). It had a higher bullseye in the Northeast than where the high risk was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Is there a chance of storms today when the C.F. moves through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 1 hour ago, #NoPoles said: Is there a chance of storms today when the C.F. moves through? BOX not thrilled about it The other concern continues to be convection potential. As noted earlier, strong shear and CAPEs near 1500 J/Kg will be fighting limited moisture for convective initiation. The most likely location if anything does develop would be across RI/SE Mass. The SPC HRRR does show a couple of brief isolated storms developing in this area between 19Z and 20Z. We will continue our POPs from the earlier forecast, generally slight chance or low-end chance over RI and SE Mass. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2017 Author Share Posted May 24, 2017 Monday is looking interesting! Potentially fairly steep lapse rates ahead of decent s/w and strong shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2017 Author Share Posted May 24, 2017 Hopefully we can get things to time perfectly, particularly with the steep lapse rates. Looks like shear will be pretty decent and good moisture/dewpoint advection as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Always seems to be a western New England severe event within a day or two of Memorial Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Could be some elevated convection overnight...esp further east. Very dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Stay safe all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2017 Author Share Posted May 29, 2017 Wednesday looking interesting...just a tad west but thinking of chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 29, 2017 Share Posted May 29, 2017 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Wednesday looking interesting...just a tad west but thinking of chasing Ryan was teasing it on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2017 Author Share Posted May 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ryan was teasing it on air. Sweet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2017 Author Share Posted May 29, 2017 Probably going to southern VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2017 Share Posted May 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Ryan was teasing it on air. Yeah some potential Wednesday. Nice cold pool coming in aloft with 500 hpa temps around -19C so we get some steep lapse rates. only marginal low level moisture so CAPE won't be too high but worth watching - especially given the strong deep layer shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2017 Author Share Posted May 30, 2017 Wouldn't be surprised to see a few supercells tomorrow...could enhance hail potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Big day for interior SNE tomorrow. Especially river west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Slight Risk ENY, NW/C CT, WMA, SVT, SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Is Wiz scoring a baseball game today? That's how we know the threat is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 I'm chasing today. Overnught models looked solid. Definitely should see widespread thunderstorms with multiple clusters/lines. Wouldn't be surprised to see a near golf-ball hail report if we get some solid cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Ah, I'm socked in and drizzling. Figured you must be chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 I wish the timing was a bit quicker with the clearing process and the arrival of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 getting noticeably brighter here in the valley after heavy drizzle to start the morning. SPC mentioned some mid level drying and we could sure use it... not just to build CAPE but to build morale. At any rate, the date alone makes me bullish today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 22 minutes ago, radarman said: getting noticeably brighter here in the valley after heavy drizzle to start the morning. SPC mentioned some mid level drying and we could sure use it... not just to build CAPE but to build morale. At any rate, the date alone makes me bullish today. Yeah the closest we ever came to a High Risk was on this date. Definitely a sweet spot for severe historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Just now, Hoth said: Yeah the closest we ever came to a High Risk was on this date. Definitely a sweet spot for severe historically. The 6/6/10 tornado watch probs were something you'd see in a high risk too. And we know how that went This couple day stretch on the calendar does seem to produce though, and then a lag before it seems to ramp up again. Hard to say if it's just low sample size or if there is a climatological reason... My guess is probably the former, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 Mainly SE sfc winds throughout the region. Something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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