weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 If we only had a better overlap of parameters here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: The NAM actually looks a tad better with pushing some better mid-level support towards SNE by early evening. I do think though we'll see a few nasty supercells out in the HV tomorrow. There's not much forcing but the atmosphere is loaded with moisture and basically no CIN. It won't take much to pop some convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If we only had a better overlap of parameters here tomorrow. They seem pretty good to me. Nice overlap of CAPE and shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 33 minutes ago, CT Rain said: They seem pretty good to me. Nice overlap of CAPE and shear. It almost seemed like best LLJ was just a bit displaced from best instability. Mid level wind fields are strong but best core is off to the west. Wish we had the forcing. I wonder if enhanced gets pulled back...was shocked to see it still this Far East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Well that's something - Hartford sounding tomorrow at 21z off 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 6 hours ago, weatherwiz said: It almost seemed like best LLJ was just a bit displaced from best instability. Mid level wind fields are strong but best core is off to the west. Wish we had the forcing. I wonder if enhanced gets pulled back...was shocked to see it still this Far East YOu're the ultimate debbie downer these days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, CT Rain said: YOu're the ultimate debbie downer these days! I remember always getting so excited over these setups and going crazy and the same result happened. I think eventually I just finally said to myself...if lapse rates are garbage or the forcing isn't there...don't get hopes up. extreme W CT def has a shot though I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Landing in Boston tomorrow at 5 pm. Not a big fan of flying especially when storms are forecast. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I remember always getting so excited over these setups and going crazy and the same result happened. I think eventually I just finally said to myself...if lapse rates are garbage or the forcing isn't there...don't get hopes up. extreme W CT def has a shot though I think. Storm mode likely to be messy. Don't sell the Hartford/Springfield area short either. Adequate CAPE and a 50 knot LLJ is pretty impressive stuff. We're loaded with moisture so I find it hard to believe we're not going to see a lot of sh*t forming ahead of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 big flooding mcs with embedded bows and spinups. i approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Storm mode likely to be messy. Don't sell the Hartford/Springfield area short either. Adequate CAPE and a 50 knot LLJ is pretty impressive stuff. We're loaded with moisture so I find it hard to believe we're not going to see a lot of sh*t forming ahead of the main line. This is another wrench thrown into the complexity of this whole potential. Due to what you just mentioned, that could be something which reduces any potential too. If there is too much going on updrafts may end up fighting each other and storms may not really be able to tap into all that potential aloft. Storm motion too will tell alot. If we get storms to somewhat track with more of a westerly to easterly track this would put the motion a bit more perpendicular to the mean flow which would further enhance low-level rotation. It's going to be messy for sure. Seems like another Dutchees county special incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Just now, weatherwiz said: This is another wrench thrown into the complexity of this whole potential. Due to what you just mentioned, that could be something which reduces any potential too. If there is too much going on updrafts may end up fighting each other and storms may not really be able to tap into all that potential aloft. Storm motion too will tell alot. If we get storms to somewhat track with more of a westerly to easterly track this would put the motion a bit more perpendicular to the mean flow which would further enhance low-level rotation. It's going to be messy for sure. Seems like another Dutchees county special incoming You need to set your expectations based on conditions. Is this 6/1/11 or 7/10/89? No. It's a moisture loaded, somewhat unstable, highly sheared sh*tshow and that results in all sorts of issues. Flooding, multi-cell clusters with damaging wind/spinner potentials, and the potential for a decent line with more widespread wind issues. Not a fun day to look for structure or to chase - no classic supercells - but it has all the makings of a mess with multiple convective modes and severe opportunities. Anytime you have super low LCLs, >500 jkg of sbCAPE, and 50 knots of wind just off the deck watch out for spinners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: You need to set your expectations based on conditions. Is this 6/1/11 or 7/10/89? No. It's a moisture loaded, somewhat unstable, highly sheared sh*tshow and that results in all sorts of issues. Flooding, multi-cell clusters with damaging wind/spinner potentials, and the potential for a decent line with more widespread wind issues. Not a fun day to look for structure or to chase - no classic supercells - but it has all the makings of a mess with multiple convective modes and severe opportunities. Anytime you have super low LCLs, >500 jkg of sbCAPE, and 50 knots of wind just off the deck watch out for spinners. Good point. I am currently working on a blog post which will mention all these possibilities and why but certainly mentioning how the situation isn't entirely clear as to how it will unfold. Part has what's gone into my tone with this too has honestly been with twitter...getting into conversations with some saying severe weather outbreak, talking about tornadoes (which is much different than mentioning an isolated tornado), and saying this setup is insane. This actually somewhat reminds me of July 2013 I think it was...it was the event of Kevin's fakenado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Good point. I am currently working on a blog post which will mention all these possibilities and why but certainly mentioning how the situation isn't entirely clear as to how it will unfold. Part has what's gone into my tone with this too has honestly been with twitter...getting into conversations with some saying severe weather outbreak, talking about tornadoes (which is much different than mentioning an isolated tornado), and saying this setup is insane. This actually somewhat reminds me of July 2013 I think it was...it was the event of Kevin's fakenado Except it was real with multiple eyewitness accounts. To this day I still run into people that saw it OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Except it was real with multiple eyewitness accounts. To this day I still run into people that saw it OTG too this day some people still claim to have seen the Loc ness monster or samsquanch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: too this day some people still claim to have seen the Loc ness monster or samsquanch I couldn't care less what you think. It touched down on Mtn Spring Rd. There's video and eyewitness accounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I couldn't care less what you think. It touched down on Mtn Spring Rd. There's video and eyewitness accounts why so hostile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 WOW...latest NAM really backed with sfc winds tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: WOW...latest NAM really backed with sfc winds tomorrow GFS veered out...NAM/RAP backed in the southern Hudson Valley. I know which I'm hitching my horse to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: GFS veered out...NAM/RAP backed in the southern Hudson Valley. I know which I'm hitching my horse to. seems like all mesos are onto the idea of the backed sfc winds. Idea makes sense too looking at things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Just now, weatherwiz said: seems like all mesos are onto the idea of the backed sfc winds. Idea makes sense too looking at things We know the valleys will get some channeled flow. And S winds in this environment (70 dews) doesn't hurt as much as when we're relying on high temps to get the CAPE. It's just going to be a classic ugly New England severe day. The kind of day that has low, ragged ceilings, and sends Kevin hanging out his window with Zapruder film images of a fake-nado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: We know the valleys will get some channeled flow. And S winds in this environment (70 dews) doesn't hurt as much as when we're relying on high temps to get the CAPE. It's just going to be a classic ugly New England severe day. The kind of day that has low, ragged ceilings, and sends Kevin hanging out his window with Zapruder film images of a fake-nado. all the parameters are fun to look at but I still don't think we see all that much in SNE. The only hope is if we do pop discrete and they push through. That line is going to fizzle in no time as it approaches. The thing is though if we do pop any discrete the timing for that looks to be like 3-6 PM which is actually when the parameters are move favorable for supercells/isolated tornado. Looks like cape/shear are maximized from like 18z-22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: all the parameters are fun to look at but I still don't think we see all that much in SNE. The only hope is if we do pop discrete and they push through. That line is going to fizzle in no time as it approaches. The thing is though if we do pop any discrete the timing for that looks to be like 3-6 PM which is actually when the parameters are move favorable for supercells/isolated tornado. Looks like cape/shear are maximized from like 18z-22z Analogs for at least one severe report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 0.35" at home during the first round here. Second round incoming. Some dense tropical rains here on 108/Mountain Road. This is some heavy rain at home. Marker is MVL Airfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Hrrr sure is interesting too as far as soundings go. Could be a fun day hfd-cef on west, and they'll be cells ahead of main line that need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Some thoughts so far this morning: Plenty of sun out there. Stratus across SNE may help keep dews from mixing out and keep winds locally backed. Initiation looks like it could be early, especially with differential heating boundaries setting up between clouds and sun. Winds pretty southerly across most of the region. MWN already gusting 50 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Looks like the SPC moved the ENH further east into central MA and CT so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 37 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Looks like the SPC moved the ENH further east into central MA and CT so there's that If we can manage some sun today could be pretty active.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Given the ceiling right now I would be surprised if we see much sun in Western Mass today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 BKN and 82/73 here. Plenty of soup to work with. Getting active into SW NH already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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