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May 15-20 Severe Threat


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Mesoscale Discussion 0740
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0729 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

   Areas affected...southwest...central...and north-central
   OK...south-central KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 220...221...

   Valid 170029Z - 170130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 220, 221 continues.

   SUMMARY...It remains unclear how far east the tornado risk will
   develop with ongoing supercells in western OK.  Large hail and some
   tornado risk will probably accompany the storms east of Tornado
   Watch 220 into parts of central OK.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows supercells over western OK with very
   large hail values per MRMS MESH with recent confirming reports.  A
   likely strong tornado likely occurred around 0000-0015Z over
   west-central OK with the strongest velocity signature this evening. 

   Stunted 0-2 km lapse rates (less than 6 degrees/km) and moderate
   low-level moisture (dewpoints ranging from 67 degrees F on the
   eastern edge of the Watch 220 to 65 degrees F on the I-35 corridor)
   will likely limit the tornado risk with further east extent towards
   the I-35 corridor compared to the ongoing potential over western OK.
   The 00Z OUN raob showed a stout capping inversion and large MLCINH
   (-300 J/kg).  However, strong supercells and their internal dynamics
   may compensate to maintain some threat for a tornado immediately
   east of the current watch.  With time, it appears the severe risk
   with the supercells as they move into central OK will transition to
   mainly hail/wind over central OK as storms move east of the moist
   axis.

   ..Smith.. 05/17/2017
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Needless to say... The wind-profile these supercells had to deal with was very impressive. Classic veering with height. But with that degree of CIN the tornado threat is about to diminish rapidly.

last.gif

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7:20 p.m.

Barron County Sheriff Chris Fitzgerald says at least 20 people were injured when a tornado hit a mobile home park near Chetek in western Wisconsin.

The tornado damaged the Prairie Lakes Estates trailer park north of Chetek. The National Weather Service reported a touchdown in the area just after 5:30 p.m. Tuesday.

Sheriff's dispatchers say they're too busy to provide details.

Chetek Mayor Jeff Martin tells KSTP-TV that numerous emergency vehicles have gone to the trailer park. He estimates the park had around 50 homes.

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6 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Probably a good time to point out that the environment further south between CDS and ABI is also favorable for significant tornadoes with the supercells emerging down there.

Wouldn't the emerging CINH squelch these cells as well as the ones farther north in OK?

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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

TDS and 120+ kt G2G shear on the KS TOR warned storm.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
815 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017  
  
KSC009-170130-  
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170517T0130Z/  
BARTON KS-  
815 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTY...  
      
AT 814 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PAWNEE ROCK, OR   
7 MILES WEST OF GREAT BEND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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57 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

7:20 p.m.

Barron County Sheriff Chris Fitzgerald says at least 20 people were injured when a tornado hit a mobile home park near Chetek in western Wisconsin.

The tornado damaged the Prairie Lakes Estates trailer park north of Chetek. The National Weather Service reported a touchdown in the area just after 5:30 p.m. Tuesday.

Sheriff's dispatchers say they're too busy to provide details.

Chetek Mayor Jeff Martin tells KSTP-TV that numerous emergency vehicles have gone to the trailer park. He estimates the park had around 50 homes.

Sadly they are now reporting 1 fatality from that mobile home park.

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