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May 15-20 Severe Threat


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Something to note is per guidance the environment, despite the numerous tornado warned storms, really is not that impressive yet. Parameter space will start to increase substantially by 5-6pm... And especially by 00z.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Something to note is per guidance the environment, despite the numerous tornado warned storms, really is not that impressive yet. Parameter space will start to increase substantially by 5-6pm... And especially by 00z.

Well given the underestimation of the surface backing noted in the RAP, SRH is also likely underestimated.

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I am listening to thunder here in CO while tracking thunderstorms in the Plains. Howardwick TX has a classic supercell shape; GRLevel3 says it has 3" hail, so hail of 1"- 2.5" likely there. Gray, OK looks like it has had intense rotation recently.

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NWS is watching that stream it seems


TXC129-179-162200-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-170516T2200Z/
Gray TX-Donley TX-
444 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GRAY AND NORTHEASTERN DONLEY COUNTIES...
    
At 443 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located located near Mclean,
or 22 miles west of Shamrock, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Live storm chaser video confirmed tornado. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

Locations impacted include...
Mclean.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 10073 3523 10067 3524 10054 3516 10054
      3512 10059 3512 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 229DEG 27KT 3521 10065 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

Guerrero
 

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The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Collingsworth County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 530 PM CDT
    
* At 455 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a 
  tornado was located 5 miles northeast of Memphis, moving northeast 
  at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Wellington, Quail and Lutie. 

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES...
    
At 456 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Mclean, or 19
miles west of Shamrock, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

Locations impacted include...
Mclean and Kellerville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 10051 3518 10058 3524 10061 3544 10045
      3538 10028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 210DEG 27KT 3525 10059 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

Guerrero
 

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