Chargers09 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 I know its hour 54 plus on the 3km but Im rather intrigued by the rogue supercell it pops around San Antonio. Checking the soundings for that timeframe-- Am I way off base here for expecting anything of note for SA on Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Day 1 mod issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Moderate risk coming for today in the eastern panhandle on 1630 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Unsurprisingly for both strong tornadoes and very large hail. Parameter space definitely supports this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Also potential mod risk in next update for KS/NE/IA/MO Quote ...KS/NEB/IA/MO... Morning water vapor loop shows a deep trough over the western states, with a leading shortwave impulse rotating across NM. 12z model solutions remain consistent that a cluster of intense thunderstorms will develop by mid afternoon over parts of southwest KS as this shortwave trough approaches. Strong heating is occurring in this region, with afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and minimal cap. Initial storms will likely be capable of very large hail and isolated tornadoes, but it seems likely that rapid upscale growth into a fast-moving squall line will occur. This will enhance the risk of damaging winds as storms spread northeastward across central/eastern KS and into parts of NE/IA/MO. If storm-scale trends dictate, this area may be considered for an upgrade to MDT risk in later updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 All the CAMs are insistent upon developing a very big isolated supercell down around Midland. If it persists as it moves off of the dryline, it eventually runs into better low-level shear, albeit not as good as up north. Still, that could be a hell of a storm with lots of CAPE to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Already substantial SBCAPE across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas as of the 16Z SPC mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 12z GFS/NAM kicked Thursday up a notch as well. Assuming the forecast convection further south in TX isn't overly detrimental, there's a fairly decent shot that could be a rather significant/widespread severe wx event given the breadth of the warm sector, strong flow aloft and strong backing of the surface winds (among other things). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 33 minutes ago, Jonbo said: Also potential mod risk in next update for KS/NE/IA/MO Strong heating is occurring in this region, with afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and minimal cap. If there's little cap and so much CAPE, does that give these storms a better chance to go linear rather than form discrete SCs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: 12z GFS/NAM kicked Thursday up a notch as well. Assuming the forecast convection further south in TX isn't overly detrimental, there's a fairly decent shot that could be a rather significant/widespread severe wx event given the breadth of the warm sector, strong flow aloft and strong backing of the surface winds (among other things). Parameter space on both is fairly significant - comparable to today, perhaps a tad better, and over a much larger area. Hard to go wrong in May with seasonable moisture, a favorably timed mid-level jet, a substantial southerly/south-southeasterly low-level jet, and steep lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0730 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017 Areas affected...eastern tx/ok panhandle...western ok Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 161819Z - 161915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles over the next few hours. Tornadoes are expected with this activity, along with very large hail and severe wind gusts. Tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery suggests large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading across the southern Rockies, per marked increase in showers and thunderstorms over western/central NM. Downstream, dry line has mixed east and is becoming well defined over the TX Panhandle/South Plains region with substantial boundary-layer cu immediately east of the dry line. Towering cu, and a few attempts at glaciation, are noted over Hutchinson/Hansford/Ochiltree Counties. There is increasing confidence supercells will develop across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles by mid afternoon with subsequent movement expected into western portions of OK/southwest KS into the evening. Environmental conditions appear favorable for tornadoes and very large hail as steep lapse rates are evident on 12z soundings and surface dew points have now risen into the mid 60s. Environmental conditions appear favorable for a few strong tornadoes. ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/16/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 16, 2017 Author Share Posted May 16, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Mesoscale Discussion 0730 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017 Areas affected...eastern tx/ok panhandle...western ok Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 161819Z - 161915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles over the next few hours. Tornadoes are expected with this activity, along with very large hail and severe wind gusts. Tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery suggests large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading across the southern Rockies, per marked increase in showers and thunderstorms over western/central NM. Downstream, dry line has mixed east and is becoming well defined over the TX Panhandle/South Plains region with substantial boundary-layer cu immediately east of the dry line. Towering cu, and a few attempts at glaciation, are noted over Hutchinson/Hansford/Ochiltree Counties. There is increasing confidence supercells will develop across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles by mid afternoon with subsequent movement expected into western portions of OK/southwest KS into the evening. Environmental conditions appear favorable for tornadoes and very large hail as steep lapse rates are evident on 12z soundings and surface dew points have now risen into the mid 60s. Environmental conditions appear favorable for a few strong tornadoes. ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/16/2017 Wouldn't be surprised to see this as a higher-end/PDS tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 The developing cumulus field west of Lubbuck/I-27 is beginning to catching my eye. This could possibly develop into an initial wave of storms once they move northeast into a more favorable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 First svr warning of this episode issued for storm sw of Perryton TX in the ne panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 A PDS Watch could be warranted, but given that this should occur over relatively sparsely populated areas, im not sure that they will pull the trigger on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: A PDS Watch could be warranted, but given that this should occur over relatively sparsely populated areas, im not sure that they will pull the trigger on that. I thought it was only geographical distribution, number, and intensity of storms that determined the PDS watch and not population but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 PDS tornado watch out e: yeah I have no idea what Jojo is talking about regarding population Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Things could get pretty gnarly if the HRRR pans out. Lots of cape and good looking hodograph(s). Should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: PDS tornado watch out e: yeah I have no idea what Jojo is talking about regarding population Intensity of storms matters the most. But they prefer to issue them in areas with higher population densities due to the higher probability of destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 90/80 probs for tors in that PDS watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Intensity of storms matters the most. But they prefer to issue them in areas with higher population densities due to the higher probability of destruction. Got a source on that? That doesn't seem to make a lot of sense on first blush. Tornado outbreaks are dangerous regardless population density Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: 90/80 probs for tors in that PDS watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0731 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017 Areas affected...western/central ks Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161903Z - 161930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of western and central Kansas this afternoon. Large hail and isolated tornadoes are likely, along with some damaging winds. Tornado watch will be issued shortly. DISCUSSION...Higher quality boundary-layer moisture is advecting north across the central Plains early this afternoon, per deepening/expanding cu field. Dry line should sharpen and retreat slightly over western Kansas over the next few hours and supercells are expected to develop beneath agitated mid-level convection currently expanding across this region. It's not entirely clear what is causing this mid-level convection but low-level moistening, and cooling aloft should minimize CINH such that convection should increase and expand northeast into the early evening hours. Very large hail and isolated tornadoes appear likely. ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/16/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 On 5/15/2017 at 11:02 AM, jojo762 said: so today looks fun. is this the general area for Thursday as well or does it shift east and bring Central Ok/Metro in to play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 FAST storm motions... Wall cloud on the northern supercell about to enter the OK PH. ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR WESTERN BEAVER...EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN HANSFORD AND NORTHWESTERN OCHILTREE COUNTIES... At 206 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles northwest of Perryton, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. A wall cloud is also being observed with this storm. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to roofs, siding, and trees is possible. People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... Perryton, Beaver, Tyrone, Forgan, Hardesty, Adams, Farnsworth, Boyd, Floris, Bryans Corner, Baker, Mocane, Turpin, Balko and Elmwood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room, a bathroom or closet or basement. && A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for the Panhandle of Oklahoma...and the Panhandle of Texas. LAT...LON 3628 10084 3640 10127 3700 10110 3700 10016 TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 219DEG 47KT 3649 10096 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...1.75IN WIND...60MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 sorry Jojo!! I quoted you but hit the wrong button!! HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 21 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Intensity of storms matters the most. But they prefer to issue them in areas with higher population densities due to the higher probability of destruction. Yeah no Rick Smith in OUN says this is pretty much false. Population density doesn't really matter at all when they make that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Mid level lapse rates are great and bulk shear 45-65 over western KS where those two initial cells are headed. Helicity is lower at present time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Tennis ball sized hail and wall cloud with STW storm Bryans Corner TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 81/67 at CDS and 80/69 upstream at ABI. The forecast parameter space later on towards 23-01z is among the most robust I've ever seen in this portion of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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