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May 15-20 Severe Threat


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Any thoughts on tomorrow? I haven't gotten an opportunity to look at tomorrow too in-depth yet, convective evolution tonight and tomorrow morning obviously play a big role convective development tomorrow afternoon, but what kind of potential environment are we looking at?

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5 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Any thoughts on tomorrow? I haven't gotten an opportunity to look at tomorrow too in-depth yet, convective evolution tonight and tomorrow morning obviously play a big role convective development tomorrow afternoon, but what kind of potential environment are we looking at?

Some decent parameters tomorrow, biggest issues besides morning convection is storm mode. However, if a discrete cell can get going and absorb any OFB from the morning MCS, we're in business. Reminds me a little bit of 5/20/13 ingredient wise and spatial wise.

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7 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Any thoughts on tomorrow? I haven't gotten an opportunity to look at tomorrow too in-depth yet, convective evolution tonight and tomorrow morning obviously play a big role convective development tomorrow afternoon, but what kind of potential environment are we looking at?

HRRR shows convective mess last I checked similar for 3k nam...HRRR though wasn't showing late afternoon yet but morning convection.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
744 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017  
  
TXC049-190100-  
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170519T0100Z/  
BROWN TX-  
744 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY...  
      
AT 744 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
OVER CROSS CUT, OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF EARLY, AND IS NEARLY  
STATIONARY.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.   

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
810 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  WEST CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 809 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MAY, OR 18  
  MILES NORTHWEST OF COMANCHE, MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.   
  
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