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May 15-20 Severe Threat

MattPetrulli

By MattPetrulli,
in Central/Western States

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Back tracking things, I'm still seeing very favorable conditions in parts of risk region, what seems to be keeping things from second cells taking off?

The airmass is overturned and surface-based convective inhibition is increasing. 

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Buckeye05

Buckeye05

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

No offense but you brought up something that didn't even happen, I get why SmokeEater is calling you out on it. As for those events I don't remember it happening then outside of a couple non regular severe posters. You get randoms that come along but the rest of us don't do that nonsense.

I realize it didn't happen and probably should have specified. Today had some impressive signatures. I was just saying I find those kind of posts more annoying than bust calls in general, not in relation to today's event. 

Again moving on...

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

With 15+ tornadoes now, this will classify as a regional "outbreak," just didn't get the type of higher-end tornadoes that were expected/possible, for a variety of reasons. Area VWPs while storms were discrete/semi-discrete were meager and unimpressive. As of now, VWPs at OUN and KFD are fairly impressive depicting good veering with height, but VNX and ICT are much less favorable, depicting a high amount of low/mid level meridional flow. 

That is part of the issue with the risk categories, 30% probability for tornadoes in the HIGH risk, 12 of the reports fell in the HIGH. As for verifying the significant tornado part, you need a tornado to hit something appreciable for that to matter. The thing is people think of HIGH risks as 50+ tornadoes with a bunch of wedges. From a probability standpoint this actually would verify as a HIGH or very close to it.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, Buckeye05 said:

I realize it didn't happen and probably should have specified. Today had some impressive signatures. I was just saying I find those kind of posts more annoying that bust calls in general.

Again moving on...

I just don't see them happening enough to matter/care to be honest and something like that can easily be corrected during the thread discussion.

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MattPetrulli

MattPetrulli

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, Stebo said:

That is part of the issue with the risk categories, 30% probability for tornadoes in the HIGH risk, 12 of the reports fell in the HIGH. As for verifying the significant tornado part, you need a tornado to hit something appreciable for that to matter. The thing is people think of HIGH risks as 50+ tornadoes with a bunch of wedges. From a probability standpoint this actually would verify as a HIGH or very close to it.

Probability wise, yes. But a 10% or a 15% would have verified too.  

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Probability wise, yes. But a 10% or a 15% would have verified too.  

Very true, I don't know if SPC has changed to focus more on a probability standpoint which is why we have seen 4 HIGHs this year, which in all reality from probability standpoint only one of those busted.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:

Dr. Forbes just mentioned that 104 mph report in SW OK, so that sounds legit.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

There was a circulation that passed over the area at the time, I backtracked my radar, so I believe it.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That is part of the issue with the risk categories, 30% probability for tornadoes in the HIGH risk, 12 of the reports fell in the HIGH. As for verifying the significant tornado part, you need a tornado to hit something appreciable for that to matter. The thing is people think of HIGH risks as 50+ tornadoes with a bunch of wedges. From a probability standpoint this actually would verify as a HIGH or very close to it.

I wish CIPS still updated their PPF realtime page. Any event with a close cluster of reports could easily yield MDT/HIGH risk "verification". It seemed overdone to some. Especially storms impacting at least relatively populated areas. Or just spots with a lot of spotter reports. 

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MattPetrulli

MattPetrulli

Posted
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Posted
1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Very true, I don't know if SPC has changed to focus more on a probability standpoint which is why we have seen 4 HIGHs this year, which in all reality from probability standpoint only one of those busted.

I look at risks as wording. Not a lot of people look at SPC risks as probabilities, but rather if there will be an outbreak and how significant will it be.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, Quincy said:

I wish CIPS still updated their PPF realtime page. Any event with a close cluster of reports could easily yield MDT/HIGH risk "verification". It seemed overdone to some. Especially storms impacting at least relatively populated areas. Or just spots with a lot of spotter reports. 

Yeah I hear you on that. In this case too it was many storms that did produce. Not just one supercell going hard producing 20 reports along. That is where you will skew things from a probability standpoint.

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Probability wise, yes. But a 10% or a 15% would have verified too.  

Synoptically and with the progged ingredients in place, especially with what the 00Z NAM showed, the High risk made sense. Storms formed too soon to take advantage of the environment that was progged to be in place at 00z. Plenty of 00z and 12z CAMs did horrible with convective evolution  aside from early CI, regardless of whatever bull**** someone wants to spew, almost all unanimously showed rapid upscale growth into a line or broken-line shortly after CI, and that didn't happen whatsoever. We had several discrete cells between 19-23Z, along with a few clusters (especially further north), but nothing anywhere near a large convective line. 

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MattPetrulli

MattPetrulli

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Just now, Quincy said:

I wish CIPS still updated their PPF realtime page. Any event with a close cluster of reports could easily yield MDT/HIGH risk "verification". It seemed overdone to some. Especially storms impacting at least relatively populated areas. Or just spots with a lot of spotter reports. 

Some of it was overdone, it considered that March event in Illinois last year a high risk worthy event with about 9-10 tornadoes, 1 or 2 of which were strong. 

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

I look at risks as wording. Not a lot of people look at SPC risks as probabilities, but rather if there will be an outbreak and how significant will it be.

Yeah I completely understand that, most people do. My discussion is more of a reason of validation for them since I know there will be people out there looking to crush SPC, saying OMGWTFBUST.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I look at risks as wording. Not a lot of people look at SPC risks as probabilities, but rather if there will be an outbreak and how significant will it be.

And SPC views them probabilistically. That way they don't issue too many high risks because it "feels like" a high risk day. They have hard numbers to back it up.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Synoptically and with the progged ingredients in place, especially with what the 00Z NAM showed, the High risk made sense. Storms formed too soon to take advantage of the environment that was progged to be in place at 00z. Plenty of 00z and 12z CAMs did horrible with convective evolution regardless of whatever bull**** someone wants to spew, almost all unanimously showed rapid upscale growth into a line or broken-line shortly after CI, and that didn't happen whatsoever. We had several discrete cells between 19-23Z, along with a few clusters (especially further north), but nothing anywhere near a large convective line. 

That is an important point too. Early initiation meant that the parameter space hadn't lined up with the most discrete storms. They were rather displaced enough to allow updrafts to begin interacting with each other as LLJ winds got going.

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Misstertwister

Misstertwister

Posted
Posted

You guys are funny. My wee wee is bigger than your wee wee!!! You guys arguing reminds me of my tee ballers  

 

I have to admit I have learned a lot from you guys on reading parameters and looking at model data days out.  I'm in no category like many of you all that actually know what you're looking at but I certainly appreciate all you guys do on this forum  I have told a lot of friends with no skill whatsoever about this website and they go to it a lot during tornado season. A couple even got subscriptions  I think. You have releived a lot of anxiety for many people if they know about this forum

But to say one model verified better than the other is just down right laughable. Bottom line is storms formed, there were tornadoes and possibly people lost some property. The models aren't exact just like the predictors at NWS. A HIgh Risk to us is different to many people. 

Us arm chair QB's don't have to worry about people or property like NWS does so there's no pressure on us to get the word out. We read the data and give our own interpretation of what will happen, when it happens and where it happens. From the safety of our couch, no one blaming us if we're wrong while we play D&D while drinking Mountain Dew and eating  Funions. I've lived in OK my entire life and yes we have had dangerous life changing tornadoes. But more often than not how many times do we see this happen. A highly volatile day where storms explode, cut off each other or merge and die out or go upscale. 

Anyways, I sincerely love seeing or rather reading you all S thoughts on possible days and will continue to learn from you. 

 

PS I too called the Patriots come back and Tiger Woods will get #19

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SmokeEater

SmokeEater

Posted
Posted
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to discuss couplet strength or not anymore 
But the TOR warned cell south of Alva and west of Cherokee, OK has strong winds, which appear to be moving in opposite directions.
And is tornado warned.


lol

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Weird watching these storms conceal and some just deteriorate completely. 

It's interesting what happens when a strongly unstable environment is fragmented like Swiss cheese, while shear profiles continue to improve.

It's like an increasingly small and randomized target on a dartboard. 
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