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May 15-20 Severe Threat

MattPetrulli

By MattPetrulli,
in Central/Western States

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Quincy

Quincy

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Posted

Today will go down as a great example of an impressing parameter space (high-end, climatologically) not equaling a slam dunk, long-track tornado outbreak. Storm mergers, early initiation, disrupted inflow, cool air north of the warm front, etc. HRRR really nailed it, even from the beginning with early 24+ hour HRRRX progs. 

Sure, several tornadoes and a few long-lived supercells, but not really a high risk-caliber event. 

Tomorrow has potential as well, but one peek at the HRRRX does not excite me. (Morning MCS across OK/TX with messy storm modes over KS again)

Not only that, but the Plains pattern grinds to a screeching halt for at least a few days, beginning Saturday. 

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jojo762

jojo762

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Today will go down as a great example of a great parameter space (high-end, climatologically) not equaling a slam dunk, long-track tornado outbreak. Storm mergers, early initiation, disrupted inflow, cool air north of the warm front, etc. HRRR really nailed it, even from the beginning with early 24+ hour HRRRX progs. 

Sure, several tornadoes and a few long-lived supercells, but not really a high risk-caliber event. 

Tomorrow has potential as well, but one peek at the HRRRX does not excite me. (Morning MCS across OK/TX with messy storm modes over KS again)

Not only that, but the Plains pattern grinds to a screeching halt for at least a few days, beginning Saturday. 

HRRR honestly did not do that good imo. It showed massive convective complexes/bows near I-35 by 22-00Z. Those do not exist, by any means. Storms stayed quite a bit more discrete than CAMs had showed this morning. Just didn't come together.

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Santa Clause

Santa Clause

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Today will go down as a great example of an impressing parameter space (high-end, climatologically) not equaling a slam dunk, long-track tornado outbreak. Storm mergers, early initiation, disrupted inflow, cool air north of the warm front, etc. HRRR really nailed it, even from the beginning with early 24+ hour HRRRX progs. 

Sure, several tornadoes and a few long-lived supercells, but not really a high risk-caliber event. 

Tomorrow has potential as well, but one peek at the HRRRX does not excite me. (Morning MCS across OK/TX with messy storm modes over KS again)

Not only that, but the Plains pattern grinds to a screeching halt for at least a few days, beginning Saturday. 

Yup, well said.

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Amped

Amped

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Today will go down as a great example of an impressing parameter space (high-end, climatologically) not equaling a slam dunk, long-track tornado outbreak. Storm mergers, early initiation, disrupted inflow, cool air north of the warm front, etc. HRRR really nailed it, even from the beginning with early 24+ hour HRRRX progs. 

Sure, several tornadoes and a few long-lived supercells, but not really a high risk-caliber event. 

Tomorrow has potential as well, but one peek at the HRRRX does not excite me. (Morning MCS across OK/TX with messy storm modes over KS again)

Not only that, but the Plains pattern grinds to a screeching halt for at least a few days, beginning Saturday. 

Better than the other high risk events this year.

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Quincy

Quincy

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

HRRR honestly did not do that good imo. It showed massive convective complexes/bows near I-35 by 22-00Z. Those do not exist, by any means. Storms stayed quite a bit more discrete than CAMs had showed this morning. Just didn't come together.

A bow just passed through the east side of OKC in the 22-23z time frame. No model is ever going to be 100% perfect, but considering all the various model outputs and potential scenarios, the HRRR was relatively consistent and generally had the right idea with relatively long lead time. Maybe it initiated an hour or two too early, but that's a known model bias in most events. 

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Stebo

Stebo

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Just now, Quincy said:

A bow just passed through the east side of OKC in the 22-23z time frame. No model is ever going to be 100% perfect, but considering all the various model outputs and potential scenarios, the HRRR was relatively consistent and generally had the right idea with relatively long lead time. Maybe it initiated an hour or two too early, but that's a known model bias in most events. 

That line of storms formed well east of where HRRR was projecting it, I wouldn't even say HRRR did a good job. The only thing it got right was early initiation, that is about it.

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jojo762

jojo762

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4 minutes ago, Quincy said:

A bow just passed through the east side of OKC in the 22-23z time frame. No model is ever going to be 100% perfect, but considering all the various model outputs and potential scenarios, the HRRR was relatively consistent and generally had the right idea with relatively long lead time. Maybe it initiated an hour or two too early, but that's a known model bias in most events. 

I didn't say it had to be perfect. Saying it nailed it is bs imo. Most HRRR runs from this early and late this morning showed very quick upscale linear growth, with a few outlier more favorable looking runs, we got nowhere close to that happening. All/most CAMs did fairly poor with convective evolution of the original pre-dryline storms that formed at ~18z.

Also, no, calling a bust at 21Z is moronic, and was unnecessary in this case.

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Derecho!

Derecho!

Posted
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3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Some users who were sand blasting zinski1990 for calling a bust should apologize. Today was obviously a high risk bust, a 10% woulda verified or maybe a 15%. Those of you who called him a moron and requested him to be banned should apologize. 

No, they shouldn't.

He's still a troll. If you call bust on every high end event (be it severe, snow, tropical) you'll end up right a decent amount of time because they often bust. When they are right, it's not a demonstration of skill, any more than predicting a die will roll a 6 and getting it right once every 6 rolls is. 

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MattPetrulli

MattPetrulli

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Just now, Derecho! said:

No, they shouldn't.

He's still a troll. If you call bust on every high end event (be it severe, snow, tropical) you'll end up right a decent amount of time because they often bust. When they are right, it's not a demonstration of skill, any more than predicting a die will roll a 6 and getting it right once every 6 rolls is. 

Any specifics on what he called a bust on?

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OUGrad05

OUGrad05

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Posted

The day wasn't a busy for me but seems like definitely a high risk bust.

SPC is awful this year. You can thank Broyles for jumping the gun at 1am. Others did a good job caveating the **** out of the risk but they didn't want to walk back the original outlook.

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hlcater

hlcater

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Posted
1 minute ago, SluggerWx said:

Crazy intense couplet about to go through Salina, KS.

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Kinda broad attm, and only has about 15 minutes before the cell moves over the warm front and loses tornado potential, but if it can put something down with a couplet like that, watch out

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SmokeEater

SmokeEater

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Posted
Some users who were sand blasting zinski1990 for calling a bust should apologize. Today was obviously a high risk bust, a 10% woulda verified or maybe a 15%. Those of you who called him a moron and requested him to be banned should apologize. 


No offense, no way. He comes in almost every severe event thread and says that one single statement. Never adds anything scientific to back anything up either, let alone even another post. A troll is a troll, end of story. And 6:30 local time means event over?

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hlcater

hlcater

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Posted
1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:


No offense, no way. He comes in almost every severe event thread and says that one single statement. Never adds anything scientific to back anything up either, let alone even another post. A troll is a troll, end of story. And 6:30 local time means event over?

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With a crazy worked over environment present, for the most part, yes it does. Only TOR potential areas I see left are the RR and southward and the warm front in KS, of course any cells that remain in OK do have some potential, but TOR potential as a whole in OK is waning fairly quickly as remaining storms die off.

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MattPetrulli

MattPetrulli

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Just now, SmokeEater said:


No offense, no way. He comes in almost every severe event thread and says that one single statement. Never adds anything scientific to back anything up either, let alone even another post. A troll is a troll, end of story. And 6:30 local time means event over?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

That's my mistake, didn't know he came on multiple severe forums to say so. Nothing impressive right now, just storm interactions and discrete cells with no impressive elements. That's my reason for calling a under verified high risk/bust.

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jojo762

jojo762

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Posted
4 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

The day wasn't a busy for me but seems like definitely a high risk bust.

SPC is awful this year. You can thank Broyles for jumping the gun at 1am. Others did a good job caveating the **** out of the risk but they didn't want to walk back the original outlook.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
 

Kept waiting for them to walk back the high risk... But it never happened. One of the most caveat-filled High Risks i've ever seen. We got the storms we needed/wanted for sig tors, something just held them back, not quite sure what it was yet. 00Z OUN sounding might help some in figuring that out. Storms didn't develop explosively or maintain/strengthen quite like you'd expect with 3000-5000 CAPE.

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CryHavoc

CryHavoc

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1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

With a crazy worked over environment present, for the most part, yes it does. Only TOR potential areas I see left are the RR and southward and the warm front in KS, of course any cells that remain in OK do have some potential, but TOR potential as a whole in OK is waning fairly quickly as remaining storms die off.

Which would be relevant if he ever said anything with scientific merit.  But he doesn't.  He just comes on awx to proclaim "bust" to be edgy and outsmart the Mets here who actually have education on the subject.  It's also the kind of attitude that gets people killed when high risk resolves for real after, say, 4pm.

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