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May 15-20 Severe Threat


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25 minutes ago, weunice said:

Spotter network has been reporting brief touchdowns in KS.

I observed two, narrow funnels from a distance on either east-west side of Great Bend as I approached from the south, but nothing more conclusive from my vantage point. Flash flooding downtown though. 

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Another one 

 

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Kingfisher County in central Oklahoma...
  East central Blaine County in northwestern Oklahoma...
  Northwestern Canadian County in central Oklahoma...

* Until 545 PM CDT

* At 513 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 4 miles east of
  Greenfield, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. 

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. 

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Mesoscale Discussion 0765
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0515 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

   Areas affected...central and north-central OK into far southern KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 235...239...

   Valid 182215Z - 182315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 235, 239 continues.

   SUMMARY...A heightened tornado risk may evolve northwest of the OKC
   metro---dependent on slightly less supportive storm-scale
   interactions resolving in the near term.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows as cluster of tornadic supercells
   over northwest OK and supercells with a history of tornadoes over
   central OK near the I-40 corridor in west-central OK.  The
   near-storm environment is forecast to become more favorable for
   strong tornadoes over the next 2 hours as backed east-southeasterly
   low level flow strengthens in the inflow regions of the established
   supercells.  Forecast soundings show 0-1 km SRH over central and
   north-central OK in the 50-75 m2/s2 range (NAM/RAP).  This is in
   contrast to observed KTLX VAD data showing around 150 m2/s2 0-1 km
   SRH with weaker SRH near KVNX.  The short-term models indicate SRH
   will increase and the expectation is for 0-1 km SRH to increase into
   the 150-300 m2/s2 range.  This will likely prove favorable for
   intensifying low-level mesocyclones/increased tornado potential.  As
   storms move farther east, a reservoir of richer low-level moisture
   is located over north-central OK (likely a partial function of
   evapotranspiration due to excessive rains earlier this month).  As
   storms encounter the slightly higher moisture (into the upper 60s
   degrees F) and strengthening low-level shear, an intense longer
   track tornado may develop over central/north-central OK this
   evening.
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
529 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSC009-182300-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170518T2300Z/
Barton KS-
529 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
BARTON COUNTY...
    
At 523 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 6 miles southeast of 
Albert, or 6 miles northwest of Great Bend, moving northeast at 30 
mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

This tornado will be near...
  Olmitz around 535 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Galatia and Great Bend Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

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Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Coleman County in west central Texas...

* Until 545 PM CDT

* At 522 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Silver Valley, or 8 miles northwest of Coleman,
  moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  northeastern Coleman County, including the following locations:
  Echo.
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Plenty of tornadoes thus far today, but nothing really long-track or high-end from what I can tell... Might have something to do with the largely meridional flow from 700-500mb. Not looking like a whole lot of opportunities left as initial discrete supercells are 1. Weakening, or 2. meeting their demise. Possibly some potential with the new storms forming out west.

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