CGChaser Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Weird, but yep, PDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said: lol...yet people here use it as evidence that a bust is coming... Not here but Twitter was overwhelmingly downplaying if not dismissing the HRRR because it overdoes convection. Yet so far this is very close to its solution. To be fair SPC since 13z has made the lower end solution noted as a distinct possibility in its outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Developing supecells in Dewey and Harper Counties in northwest Oklahoma. The junk around the strongest storms in northern oklahoma appears to be dissipating as well, perhaps save the Harper Co storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Now the watch probs are up to 90/80 for tornadoes and significant tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 All one has to do is look at the oncoming helicity for the area of southern KS with the other parameters being as they are to surmise that a mistake was probably made with that initial watch issuance. 500 m2/s2. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Supercell northeast of Hobert is cycling quickly... Strong rotation again. Looks the same as it was to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Vr shear on the tower going up N of PTT is already at 25 kts, and it has barely even matured into Cb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Just now, Buckeye05 said: Looks the same as it was to me. Has your FDR not updated? It has definitely strengthened and reorganized... Tornado warned again as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 What I am noticing in NW OK over the past several scans out of VNX is that a few cells are starting to become the dominant updrafts, or it at least appears this way on reflectivity trends. Whether we can get cells to become dominant is the million dollar question as the greater tornado threat hinges on this occurring. If this doesnt occur, and we have 500 weaker cells competing, significant tornado chances will remain low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Buckeye05 said: Looks the same as it was to me. Are you sure? It has much better rotation now a solid wall cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 What was the most significant tornado outbreak with a positively tilted trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Just now, mob1 said: Are you sure? It has much better rotation now a solid wall cloud. I mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Latest 19Z HRRR keeps things discrete, as current near-term trends would indicate. UH tracks are prevalent and impressive across the warm-sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Storm east of Leedey producing an impressive funnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Dewey County in northwestern Oklahoma... * Until 415 PM CDT * At 340 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles southeast of Camargo, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Taloga, Seiling and Cestos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 I suspect storms are currently struggling due to somewhat meager low-level shear. This will no longer be a problem once the low-level jet ramps up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN WA****A AND WEST CENTRAL CADDO COUNTIES... At 345 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Cloud Chief, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Cordell, Corn, Colony and Cloud Chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Hasn't really been any tight GTG rotation since the initial Duke area tornado honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said: I mean.. Yeah weird, it looked better a few scans before that and then afterwards. It has a confirmed tornado now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Need more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Dewey Co. storm is ramping up on VNX. And yeah, it's not even 21Z yet. Low-level shear will pick up dramatically here in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Very strong inflow into the original supercell near Corn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Just now, jojo762 said: Dewey Co. storm is ramping up on VNX. And yeah, it's not even 21Z yet. Low-level shear will pick up dramatically here in the next few hours. Agreed. Give it an hour or two, and these storms will be bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 It looked weaker for 2 scans, everybody needs to calm down... lolSent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Decent couplet east of Carmago now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 looks like it's going to cycle again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Need more... Could easily be to weak to hold back the colder RFDs. But all models have winds ramping up from here to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Tornado report at 3:46 east of New Cordell.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Need to watch the storm on the southeast side of the cluster in NW OK in Woodward Co. Developing rotation, and has uninterrupted inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Supercell north of Cambridge OK is going to need TOR warned soon as well probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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