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May 15-20 Severe Threat


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3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

If this organizes its going to be a textbook right-moving intense supercell...

The way this one is evolving is reminding me very much of the storm that produced the Lookeba and El Reno/Piedmont tornadoes on 5/24/11.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0760
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 235...

   Valid 182002Z - 182130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 235 continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for tornadoes likely maximized over northwest
   Texas and southwest Oklahoma over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...KFDR radar data indicate several strong supercells
   across the discussion area this afternoon, with at least two
   tornadoes already reported over southwest Oklahoma. Ahead of these
   cells, surface observations indicate pressure falls around 1-1.5
   mb/hour, with a notable backing of low-level flow. In turn, any
   semi-discrete convection with a deviant eastward component of motion
   will exist within an environment characterized by strong low-level
   storm-relative flow. Radar data confirm such a regime, as ZDR arc
   signatures continue to be noted on these supercells, indicating
   vigorous storm-relative flow veering with height. Therefore, cyclic
   low-level mesocylogenesis, with occasional tornadogenesis, will
   likely continue with these cells as they spread northeast. Very
   large hail and damaging winds will also remain a threat.

   ..Picca.. 05/18/2017
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