raindancewx Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Latest weeklies, some more warming except in Nino 4. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07FEB2018 24.9-0.7 24.9-1.3 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.3 14FEB2018 25.5-0.6 25.3-1.1 25.8-1.0 27.7-0.4 21FEB2018 26.2 0.0 25.7-0.9 25.8-1.1 27.9-0.2 28FEB2018 26.5 0.2 26.1-0.6 26.1-0.8 27.9-0.2 07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1 14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1 21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0 28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1 Monthly/ONI data should be out later this week or next week. Worth noting, there is another big MJO wave now, will do the 7-8-1-2 dance. ^^ I think the positive values turning into La Ninas has to do with the PDO flip in the previous decade, by some measures (NOAA PDO) it has been negative for a while after the brief big spike with the 2014-15/2015-16 El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28 2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21 2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51 2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60 2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01 2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04 2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88 2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68 2018 3 26.44 27.21 -0.77 March came in at 25.15C in Nino 1.2, coldest since 2005. Nino 3.4 was coldest in March since 2011. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina34.data https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina1.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 An El Nino next year would match the global warming rate (aesthetic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 March 29 2006 is on the right. If an El Nino is to develop in July as the Canadian says, it makes some sense that the subsurface is "ahead" of 2006 in trending to El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 Time to play Taps soon? Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07FEB2018 24.9-0.7 24.9-1.3 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.3 14FEB2018 25.5-0.6 25.3-1.1 25.8-1.0 27.7-0.4 21FEB2018 26.2 0.0 25.7-0.9 25.8-1.1 27.9-0.2 28FEB2018 26.5 0.2 26.1-0.6 26.1-0.8 27.9-0.2 07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1 14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1 21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0 28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest March 2018 had the first negative monthly PDO value (JISAO/Mantua) since December 2013. Been a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 12, 2018 Author Share Posted April 12, 2018 March 2018 was also the coldest 500mb N Hemisphere as a whole since 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 12, 2018 Author Share Posted April 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 12, 2018 Author Share Posted April 12, 2018 What a difference from February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 Euro says El Nino starts in July, before it had it in September. Jamstec has trended to warm neutral / weak El Nino conditions for Summer from flat Neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 12, 2018 Author Share Posted April 12, 2018 Looking at the subsurface, it will probably go El Nino although I think short lived, the atmospheric feedback of the globe right now is still La Nina. It may go El Nino to Neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 12, 2018 Author Share Posted April 12, 2018 You'll find this is extremely correlated to the North Pacific pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 I'm actually more interested in what the PDO does for the time being, in the Summer that's the stronger precip signal v. ENSO here, and Summer is the wet season, with 50-70% of annual rain falling in Jun-Sep here most years. Ideal monsoon tends to occur with low-solar activity, high PDO values, and little precipitation in the Nov-Apr prior to Summer. Dry Summers get a little nuts, we had sub-0F dewpoints a few days last year with air temperatures during the day near 100, so some areas were falling into the 40s at night. Even here, that's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 14, 2018 Author Share Posted April 14, 2018 The longer term PDO is negative, going forward I'm not sure it follows the same trend as since 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 14, 2018 Author Share Posted April 14, 2018 We are going to legitimate El NIno pretty fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 16, 2018 Share Posted April 16, 2018 No more La Nina in 3.4 as of this week. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 14FEB2018 25.5-0.6 25.3-1.1 25.8-1.0 27.7-0.4 21FEB2018 26.2 0.0 25.7-0.9 25.8-1.1 27.9-0.2 28FEB2018 26.5 0.2 26.1-0.6 26.1-0.8 27.9-0.2 07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1 14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1 21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0 28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 19, 2018 Author Share Posted April 19, 2018 Well this was a successful thread until about half way through I think it got hacked or something. I've been following, and it's apparently received 4,500 views in the last few weeks but no one is posting in the weather section, There are like 3 posts. Thanks for the discussion though raindancewx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 19, 2018 Author Share Posted April 19, 2018 Visual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 24, 2018 Author Share Posted April 24, 2018 La Nina gone I'm still impressed by the warm water SE of Hawaii. An El Nino can really tap into that, and around 30S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 SOI has been exceptionally volatile this month, readings from +31 to -17, recently consistently negative though. Suspect there will be some kind of US pattern flip in mid-May. Strongest correlations are in the SW, WA, and northern New England for May - will be regions to watch for a flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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