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Weak La Nina Winter

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Well, so much for the trend of the weeklies running warmer than the monthlies in recent months - this is Nino 3.4. These are the numbers that feed ONI. 

 YR   MON  TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 
2017   6   28.06   27.65    0.41
2017   7   27.54   27.26    0.28
2017   8   26.70   26.91   -0.21
2017   9   26.29   26.80   -0.51
2017  10   26.15   26.75   -0.60
2017  11   25.74   26.75   -1.01
2017  12   25.62   26.65   -1.04
2018   1   25.58   26.45   -0.87
2018   2   25.96   26.66   -0.70

Had been expecting 25.5C for February. DJF came in at -0.87C, or -0.9C here - http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Really want to see Nino 1.2 now too. Edit:

Nino 1.2 was 25.08C in February 2018. That is the coldest it has been in February since 1985. 

This event, in Nino 3.4 was fairly strong in DJF (-0.8C even against 1951-2000), but the Nino 1.2 DJF reading is the coldest since 1975-76. 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina1.data

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted 
               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
 17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
 24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
 31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2

 

Pretty steady weakening now.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted
On 2/28/2018 at 8:50 PM, raindancewx said:

The Canadian has slowed down the weakening of the La Nina some, but still thinks we go to El Nino conditions in Summer. The temperature outlook is warmer nationally than the CFS for March, outside the SE.

DXKqVJzV4AAZPgC.jpg

DXKsNBUVQAA2nR1.jpg:large

Interestingly, I've found that, for my region at least, years when a La Nina transitions into an El Nino tend to bring cooler than average summers. 1976 comes to mind. 

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

I'm rooting for a weak El Nino for next winter. I know of no strong El Ninos that were within three years of each other since 1880, so I think its safe to rule out a big El Nino for next winter. I don't know of any three-in-a-row La Nina winters where the strongest La Nina was the third in a row, at least back to the 1930s.

Its been a while now since we had a real, normal Neutral winter, I'd call 2013-14 Neutral, despite a brief flirtation with La Nina status in Jan-Feb 2014. We've had a lot of El Ninos and La Ninas lately - winter 2004-05, 2005-06, 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18. Its sort of like the 1946-1959 or something, 1949-50, 1950-51, 1951-52, 1953-54, 1954-55, 1955-56, 1956-57, 1957-58, 1958-59 to me are all El Nino or La Nina winters.

Coldest winters in the Southwest tend to be 1) El Nino after La Nina 2) Low Solar 3) Strong El Nino. But two out of three ain't bad as they say. Albuquerque was relatively dry and snow-less in 2009-10, but we still managed to be around -3F for DJF with all three factors in place, the "El after La" effect does seem strongest when both events were fairly strong, i.e. -1.0C in DJF to +1.0C. For my area, a weak El Nino, after this La Nina, would probably be closest conceptually to 1976-77, but 1963-64, 1986-87, 2009-10 wouldn't be far behind. 

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted 
Bit of a comeback in Nino 1.2/3 this week. Nino 3.4/4 warming. Bit of an SOI crash again lately, with a couple readings around 0 now.
March should finish pretty positive though.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1

If Nino 1.2 has a major cool down the rest of March would be impressive. Its already had two months in a row that were the coldest in 30+ years.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

The SOI popped to +35.9 the other day. Big positive SOI readings in March came in as wet in the Western Dakotas in April, dry in the TX/MX/NM border area & the mountains of Virginia. TX should be pretty hot in April, and the NW coast pretty cold. Keep in mind, the SOI looks pretty positive the next week to ten days, with low pressures over Darwin and high pressures by Tahiti. March 1-17 reading is +8.4 now, up from -7.7 in February. Had a fairly wet/cold period from mid-Feb to mid-Mar here in line with the SOI drop in February. Still have yet to hit 70F in Albuquerque, latest since 2010, hit 75F last year on Feb 10th.

VXrrAcJ.png

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

I like some kind of Modoki La Nina look continuing into early Summer, the core of the cold is in Nino 3.4 now, with warmer anomalies east/west. I say Modoki "look" because I think by July it may be up to only -0.2 or -0.1 in Nino 3/3.4, but warmer on the sides.

There is some linkage here between the Monsoon and three leading variables - Nov-Apr precipitation totals (low winter-->slightly favors good monsoon), solar activity (low solar-->slightly favors good monsoon), and the PDO state (positive PDO Nov-Apr--> slightly favors good monsoon). Some of the things I look at favor a big June, which hasn't happened in a while. There hasn't been much return flow into the US from the Gulf of Mexico in a while, but come May or June it should make its presence known I think. Last year we had the solar+pdo factors in our favor but a wet Nov-Apr, so it was a dry wet season...until the very end of September pushed us to a wet Monsoon overall. This year, the sun (very low) & Nov-Apr precip (very low) are more favorable, but the PDO is less so. 

Kind of like a wet Summer here, with June and August more favored than July for the moment. It hasn't rained in Amarillo (0.01") in five months, and other areas of OK and KS and TX are similar - I think that's where your ridge of death is in the Summer. A big smoldering high over TX often means a wet Summer for much of NM/AZ. I haven't even seen Amarillo forecast on the models to get 0.05" within five days of a storm since October.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted
On 3/17/2018 at 3:42 PM, raindancewx said:

The SOI popped to +35.9 the other day. Big positive SOI readings in March came in as wet in the Western Dakotas in April, dry in the TX/MX/NM border area & the mountains of Virginia. TX should be pretty hot in April, and the NW coast pretty cold. Keep in mind, the SOI looks pretty positive the next week to ten days, with low pressures over Darwin and high pressures by Tahiti. March 1-17 reading is +8.4 now, up from -7.7 in February. Had a fairly wet/cold period from mid-Feb to mid-Mar here in line with the SOI drop in February. Still have yet to hit 70F in Albuquerque, latest since 2010, hit 75F last year on Feb 10th.

VXrrAcJ.png

Well...the SOI dropped to -7.3 today. Never seen it this voliatile, 1,5,36,13,-7 for the last five days

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted 
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
 17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
 24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
 31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Cyclone Marcus (120k without power in Darwin, one of the SOI zones) seems to be the reason for the volatility in the SOI lately

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
20 Mar 2018 1010.11 1007.75 -8.38 7.51 1.49
19 Mar 2018 1012.24 1009.65 -7.28 7.35 1.57
18 Mar 2018 1013.04 1006.25 12.83 7.15 1.58
17 Mar 2018 1012.51 1000.90 35.90 6.47 1.33
16 Mar 2018 1011.36 1006.15 5.26 4.81 0.71
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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted 
It updated today

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0

Nino 1.2 did cool off a lot, down to lowest temperatures since early February

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

The SOI finished March at +8.4 after a -7.7 February. From 1931-2017, there are only four years w/in 4 points of both readings - 1935, 1937, 1947, 2013. Those years in April look similar to the past winter look, warm SW, mild NW, cold elsewhere. Also somewhat similar to what the CFS has shown lately. Subsurface is bleeding East and toward the surface. One indicator that the pattern is changing is that Amarillo had its first meaningful (>0.1") rain since mid-October a few days. They went from mid Oct to 3/26 with 0.01" rain. They're not really a desert there, they average 20 inches of rain annually.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Canadian now has a big El Nino for winter 2018-19, starting as soon as July?

UMdGW2K.png

Canadian update trended the tropical Pacific warmer for every month from now to July. It has an El Nino look by July. My Spring Outlook had the La Nina collapsing to Neutral in mid-March to mid-April, that might be a bit fast, but doesn't look terrible given the warming in Nino 3 from the warm waters spreading east below the surface.

JnwemA8.png

e840WFU.png

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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Posted
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Posted
18 hours ago, raindancewx said:

https://t.co/9aGT4DXpXD

This is another way to look at things.

Also - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt 


YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W
2017   11    -0.41     -0.65      -0.84
2017   12    -0.31     -0.54      -0.75
2018    1     0.01     -0.17      -0.16
2018    2     0.29      0.09      -0.11
2018    3     0.45      0.43       0.51

Before 2008, there was a never a time when all 3 were positive in March that led to La Nina the next Winter. Many Neutral's and El Nino's. Then in the last 9 years it happened 4 times, last Winter being one

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