Weak La Nina Winter

[raindancewx]

November maps show the La Nina remained much more powerful in Nino 1.2, and much weaker in Nino 4 during November. I'd say overall Nino 3.4 is about the same, maybe still a touch weaker than last year in an ONI sense (120-170W, 5S - 5N).

[raindancewx]

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

SON 2017: -0.7C

SON 2016: -0.7C

Should point out, the monthly values that feed ONI (ERSST V.5) are here, and suggest -0.74C for SON 2016, v. -0.68C for SON 2017. Nearly identical, but SON still a bit behind last year in Nino 3.4 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

2017   9   26.28   26.80   -0.52
2017  10   26.14   26.75   -0.61
2017  11   25.76   26.75   -0.99

2016   9   26.15   26.80   -0.65
2016  10   25.98   26.75   -0.78
2016  11   25.95   26.75   -0.80

Closest November match on the dataset linked, by Nov SST in Nino 3.4 is Nov 1962.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This burst isn't really doing it. It would have to be another one. 

[nzucker]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

November maps show the La Nina remained much more powerful in Nino 1.2, and much weaker in Nino 4 during November. I'd say overall Nino 3.4 is about the same, maybe still a touch weaker than last year in an ONI sense (120-170W, 5S - 5N).

Ocean temps have almost nothing to do w monthly temperature anomalies in the East.

[raindancewx]

^^ Weird thing to say in a Nina thread? My analogs from Oct had the temps in the East for November almost perfectly using Ocean Temps (not anomalies), Solar Conditions, Modoki structure and observed Summer weather conditions including hurricanes. When Nino 1.2 is cold in the Fall it tends to snow a lot in Western Canada and then it spills into the East early before retreating later in the season, its not super hard to research why it works. 

Here is a look at Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 temperatures for November:

Year	4	3.4	1.2
2017	28.35	25.75	20.41
2016	28.24	25.94	21.78

The huge drop in Nino 1.2 is the big change.

Last year, the event began collapsing in November. This event began in September, so would expect it to hold into perhaps January before falling apart.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6
 12OCT2016     21.8 1.0     24.8-0.1     26.1-0.6     28.2-0.4
 19OCT2016     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.6     26.1-0.6     28.4-0.2
 26OCT2016     21.3 0.2     24.4-0.5     25.9-0.8     28.2-0.4
 02NOV2016     21.2 0.0     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.8     28.0-0.6
 09NOV2016     21.8 0.4     24.5-0.4     26.0-0.7     28.1-0.5
 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3
 23NOV2016     21.6-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.3-0.4     28.3-0.3
 30NOV2016     22.2 0.1     24.5-0.5     26.2-0.4     28.4-0.2

 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0

The European initialization does agree with what Tropical Tidbits was showing earlier - Nino 1.2 anomalies warmed in November, while Nino 3.4 anomalies cooled. If that continues, the event should become more of an East-Central La Nina, which is what my analogs had.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, raindancewx said:

^^ Weird thing to say in a Nina thread? My analogs from Oct had the temps in the East for November almost perfectly using Ocean Temps (not anomalies), Solar Conditions, Modoki structure and observed Summer weather conditions including hurricanes. When Nino 1.2 is cold in the Fall it tends to snow a lot in Western Canada and then it spills into the East early before retreating later in the season, its not super hard to research why it works. 

Here is a look at Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 temperatures for November:

Year	4	3.4	1.2
2017	28.35	25.75	20.41
2016	28.24	25.94	21.78

The huge drop in Nino 1.2 is the big change.

Last year, the event began collapsing in November. This event began in September, so would expect it to hold into perhaps January before falling apart.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6
 12OCT2016     21.8 1.0     24.8-0.1     26.1-0.6     28.2-0.4
 19OCT2016     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.6     26.1-0.6     28.4-0.2
 26OCT2016     21.3 0.2     24.4-0.5     25.9-0.8     28.2-0.4
 02NOV2016     21.2 0.0     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.8     28.0-0.6
 09NOV2016     21.8 0.4     24.5-0.4     26.0-0.7     28.1-0.5
 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3
 23NOV2016     21.6-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.3-0.4     28.3-0.3
 30NOV2016     22.2 0.1     24.5-0.5     26.2-0.4     28.4-0.2

 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0

The European initialization does agree with what Tropical Tidbits was showing earlier - Nino 1.2 anomalies warmed in November, while Nino 3.4 anomalies cooled. If that continues, the event should become more of an East-Central La Nina, which is what my analogs had.

Looks to me like that trend has since reversed....region 1.2 cooled markedly again, and region 3.4 warmed.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Major weakening of La Nina now happening. We're past the peak. all ups and downs bias warm from here on.  

[raindancewx]

I'm already starting to think about whether we'll have another La Nina next winter. You can have 3-5 cold ENSO events in a row, but its fairly rare to get three La Ninas in a row.

1931-32 to 1933-34? Don't consider the first two La Ninas

1942-43 to 1944-45? Don't consider the latter two La Ninas

1948-49 to 1950-51? This is pretty close, but don't consider 48-49 a La Nina.

1954-55 to 1956-57 - I'd bite. But not everyone has 56-57 as a La Nina.

1973-74 to 1975-76 - I'd bite. But not everyone considers 74-75 a La Nina.

1983-84 to 1985-86? This is close, but don't consider 85-86 a La Nina.

1998-99 to 2000-01 - I'd bite. As with the 50s, last event is the weakest.

2010-11 to 2012-13? Don't consider 2012-13 a La Nina.

Would say if odds of a La Nina winter are 30% long-term, you'd expect around three sequences of three La Ninas in a row per century...and sure enough:

1973-74 to 1975-76

1998-99 to 2000-01

...and that's it since 1950 if you go by CPC. If you include the 1950s, that's the third example. Otherwise, 1915-16 to 1917-18 is probably the last instance of three La Ninas in a row.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On December 1, 2017 at 11:37 PM, raindancewx said:

I know people in the East are hyped about a cold December, but the beaches I know from growing up in NJ hint at why I don't think it will be that cold, still 50F waters along the coast of NJ according to NOAA, with the Great Lakes running 4-6F above average as well after the very warm October. The cold shots will come, but the Lakes & Atlantic will dull the effect of it. My analogs did pretty well for November, and they show the cold in the Midwest away from the Ocean & Lakes in December, which again makes sense with how warm those waters are.

Are you honestly trying to claim that the Atlantic will temper cold shots?

You do realize that unless there is a low pressure area in the vicinity of the coast, the prevailing flow is not off of the ocean, correct?

I do agree with you that the core of the cold will not be over the east, as out max cold delivery is from the north, not the west with time to modify over the lakes...however this has nothing to do with the atlantic, dude.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

850mb La Nina wind burst looks to dissipate around Christmas. 
 

[raindancewx]

In warm AMO years (i.e. since 1995) it does seem to be the Pacific that matters most for the East. Here are the cold Eastern Decembers since 1995. 

Here are the other Eastern Decembers since 1995.

Here is 2017. The La Nina looks like the cold Decembers, but the cold South Atlantic east of Brazil and the warm Pacific from Mexico due west to China looks like the warm years.

Longer term - Pacific probably does matter more for the East given how clearly the East/East-Central La Nina signal shows up, but La Ninas still behave differently in December by AMO phase. Keep in mind, both images are centered on a mean year in the late 1970s.

 

My analogs blend in seven factors at different weights, so I only treat the AMO as 20% of the pattern - but it does matter less when the phase isn't changing. 

[raindancewx]

Wanted to point out too - heat doesn't always stay in the West in a La Nina winter after a hot November. A blend of 1933, 1949, 1950, 1954, 1964, 1995, 1996, 2007, 2012 works pretty well for matching November - some of those years become quite cold in the West (1996, 2007, 2012, 1954).

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Can we convert US Temps to a separate thread? (I think this would have more activity then)

[raindancewx]

The warm waters north of the cold Nino 3 has done its dirty work, despite missing my area. Incredibly rare accumulating snow in Austin, San Antonio, College Station, and various areas of Mexico - all low elevations. More common in low-solar years to some extent.

https://twitter.com/deweythoms/status/938942069116194816   Accumulating snow in San Antonio 

https://twitter.com/mattbonner_15/status/938934812106162176

 

https://twitter.com/damaya14love/status/938932177663922176  Snow in Austin

https://twitter.com/KHOULauren/status/938953217521672195   Snow in College Station

[Paragon]

Raindance looks like we are good to go for back to back snowfall events around here.  The warmer waters you mentioned actually help energize the storms and keep them close to the coast when the arctic shots come in.  That has been one of the main climate shifts around here since the 80s- storms that used to go out to sea back then are now coming up the coast.  Our average annual precip has jumped from 42 inches to 50 inches.  We seem to do well snowfall-wise even in marginal temps because the storms now track closer to the coast than they used to back then (thus no more dry and cold.)  Warm AMO years are also well-connected to neg NAO winters.

 

 

[Paragon]

On 12/5/2017 at 8:02 PM, raindancewx said:

I'm already starting to think about whether we'll have another La Nina next winter. You can have 3-5 cold ENSO events in a row, but its fairly rare to get three La Ninas in a row.

1931-32 to 1933-34? Don't consider the first two La Ninas

1942-43 to 1944-45? Don't consider the latter two La Ninas

1948-49 to 1950-51? This is pretty close, but don't consider 48-49 a La Nina.

1954-55 to 1956-57 - I'd bite. But not everyone has 56-57 as a La Nina.

1973-74 to 1975-76 - I'd bite. But not everyone considers 74-75 a La Nina.

1983-84 to 1985-86? This is close, but don't consider 85-86 a La Nina.

1998-99 to 2000-01 - I'd bite. As with the 50s, last event is the weakest.

2010-11 to 2012-13? Don't consider 2012-13 a La Nina.

Would say if odds of a La Nina winter are 30% long-term, you'd expect around three sequences of three La Ninas in a row per century...and sure enough:

1973-74 to 1975-76

1998-99 to 2000-01

...and that's it since 1950 if you go by CPC. If you include the 1950s, that's the third example. Otherwise, 1915-16 to 1917-18 is probably the last instance of three La Ninas in a row.

Would like to see it, since ISO and a few others are predicting that we are about to plunge headlong into a predominantly Neg NAO period that's going to last a few years.  La Nina + Neg NAO is a nice combo!

 

[Paragon]

On 12/6/2017 at 10:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are you honestly trying to claim that the Atlantic will temper cold shots?

You do realize that unless there is a low pressure area in the vicinity of the coast, the prevailing flow is not off of the ocean, correct?

I do agree with you that the core of the cold will not be over the east, as out max cold delivery is from the north, not the west with time to modify over the lakes...however this has nothing to do with the atlantic, dude.

Actually we want the warmer Atlantic, studies have shown that leads to more storminess along the coast and the arctic air comes in from the NW.  Warmer Atlantic=more snow.

The climate shift since the 2000s has shown that storms are more likely to come up the coast than go out to sea (as they did back in the 80s when we had cold and dry or cutters.)

We don't want the core of the cold here anyway, that would cause suppression and cold and dry weather.

[Paragon]

On 12/5/2017 at 8:02 PM, raindancewx said:

I'm already starting to think about whether we'll have another La Nina next winter. You can have 3-5 cold ENSO events in a row, but its fairly rare to get three La Ninas in a row.

1931-32 to 1933-34? Don't consider the first two La Ninas

1942-43 to 1944-45? Don't consider the latter two La Ninas

1948-49 to 1950-51? This is pretty close, but don't consider 48-49 a La Nina.

1954-55 to 1956-57 - I'd bite. But not everyone has 56-57 as a La Nina.

1973-74 to 1975-76 - I'd bite. But not everyone considers 74-75 a La Nina.

1983-84 to 1985-86? This is close, but don't consider 85-86 a La Nina.

1998-99 to 2000-01 - I'd bite. As with the 50s, last event is the weakest.

2010-11 to 2012-13? Don't consider 2012-13 a La Nina.

Would say if odds of a La Nina winter are 30% long-term, you'd expect around three sequences of three La Ninas in a row per century...and sure enough:

1973-74 to 1975-76

1998-99 to 2000-01

...and that's it since 1950 if you go by CPC. If you include the 1950s, that's the third example. Otherwise, 1915-16 to 1917-18 is probably the last instance of three La Ninas in a row.

Would love to see a repeat of 1915-16 to 1917-18  La Ninas with NEG NAO blocking!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Actually we want the warmer Atlantic, studies have shown that leads to more storminess along the coast and the arctic air comes in from the NW.  Warmer Atlantic=more snow.

The climate shift since the 2000s has shown that storms are more likely to come up the coast than go out to sea (as they did back in the 80s when we had cold and dry or cutters.)

We don't want the core of the cold here anyway, that would cause suppression and cold and dry weather.

Yes...agree.

[frd]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes...agree.

Ray, do you still think we get a - NAO later in the month , is the period 12/20 to 1/10 still looking good to you still ?

 

By the way I am out of my territory, I am in Delaware but I always love your post's amd Isotherms. 

[raindancewx]

 

[raindancewx]

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, frd said:

Ray, do you still think we get a - NAO later in the month , is the period 12/20 to 1/10 still looking good to you still ?

 

By the way I am out of my territory, I am in Delaware but I always love your post's amd Isotherms. 

I think the NAO hangs around neutral for awhile.....warm up between the 17th and 20th, then the pattern reloads for the holidays with a shot at a big dog before winter takes a hike for a spell in Jan.

[Paragon]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the NAO hangs around neutral for awhile.....warm up between the 17th and 20th, then the pattern reloads for the holidays with a shot at a big dog before winter takes a hike for a spell in Jan.

Sounds a bit like 1995-96, first part anyway.  Big thaw after the storm in early Jan.  You see a similar pattern here, Ray?  Big Dog might be in early Jan rather than near the holidays if the pattern is reloading in Late Dec.  Typically we see our biggest storms just as a great pattern is about to end.

 

[Paragon]

On 12/8/2017 at 5:01 PM, raindancewx said:

 

How much did they get with the Xmas eve 2004 storm?

This is like a larger version of that one, a truly historic and amazing event for the South!

Highest snowfall amounts I can find are 18 inches in North GA and NC, with 10" in the Atlanta burbs (matching March 1993!)  Accumulating snow right down to the Gulf Coast, Deep South Texas, San Padre Island, Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida!
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Sounds a bit like 1995-96, first part anyway.  Big thaw after the storm in early Jan.  You see a similar pattern here, Ray?  Big Dog might be in early Jan rather than near the holidays if the pattern is reloading in Late Dec.  Typically we see our biggest storms just as a great pattern is about to end.

 

We can also see them as it begins, too....remember, transition is what breeds large events.

[Paragon]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We can also see them as it begins, too....remember, transition is what breeds large events.

Yep, it's why winters that average out with near neutral nao (neither too positive nor too negative) are the best.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Yep, it's why winters that average out with near neutral nao (neither too positive nor too negative) are the best.

 

You want dynamic tele connectors....so a static neutral isn't great, either.

But you know this.

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You want dynamic tele connectors....so a static neutral isn't great, either.

But you know this.

Yeah, I mean an average neutral NAO usually means it switched phases several times, so that would give us opportunities for big events.  Too much neg nao (suppression) or pos nao (cutters or huggers), but a winter in which it switches back and forth quite a bit and averages close to 0 means more exciting weather for us.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yeah, I mean an average neutral NAO usually means it switched phases several times, so that would give us opportunities for big events.  Too much neg nao (suppression) or pos nao (cutters or huggers), but a winter in which it switches back and forth quite a bit and averages close to 0 means more exciting weather for us.

 

 

This isn't unique to the NAO, either....however obviously you want multi tele connector convergence for a stronger signal.

PNA is very important once south of NYC.