Weak La Nina Winter

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is a good indicator in May

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Most popular ENSO model is a moving average of the past, I think. New waves don't support this. 

[WidreMann]

The updated CFS is much cooler, keeping most areas below 0.5, or even near 0.

[bkviking]

This is the same Chuck from like a decade ago? 

Glad to see you have returned. 

Interesting this La Niña call is the only "cool" cool I've seen so far for the upcoming year. Models did just seem to correct for the Niño call over the summer recently into a warm neutral.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

subsurface continues to trend this way. It will be Neutral or weak La Nina

[raindancewx]

The Euro idea from June 1 for June seems to have verified on the high side. If you look at the historical DJF-->MAM-->AMJ transitions historically (+/-0.2C for each period) to try to predict the next DJF, the two leading scenarios do seem to be cold Neutral (-0.3C) or a moderate Nino (+1.0C). 

 

[CaWx]

I'm thinking we remain neutral through the winter. I don't think this goes weak La Nina, temperatures are still to warm. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Wouldn't it make aesthetic sense for this to happen? 

Maybe described best as waves, called WWB's, 1 cold then 1 warm, then 1 cold. We are currently coming off of a cold and going into a warm... it's cold considering the usual incline of this pattern. 

 I would say really weak Nina winter, -0.5 to -0.6 ONI DJF. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Weak Nina after Strong Nino Winter is pretty easily above normal almost all of North America, sometimes a pattern that rarely breaks all Winter long. 

[dmillz25]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Weak Nina after Strong Nino Winter is pretty easily above normal almost all of North America, sometimes a pattern that rarely breaks all Winter long. 

This past winter was a weak niña as well. So you're saying we are going to have back to back weak niña winter?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Weak Nina after Strong Nino Winter is pretty easily above normal almost all of North America, sometimes a pattern that rarely breaks all Winter long. 

Last winter didn't feature a strong el nino, though.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

My mistake. The Earth is very warm right now, top 3. So the same rules apply. That's really all the Nino correlation does, and a weak Nina will strengthen the Pacific Jet which floods that top 3 warmth inland

[nzucker]

Usually a weak Nina/negative-neutral is cold in the Northeast, thinking of 95-96, 60-61, 66-67, etc.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On ‎7‎/‎17‎/‎2017 at 10:14 PM, nzucker said:

Usually a weak Nina/negative-neutral is cold in the Northeast, thinking of 95-96, 60-61, 66-67, etc.

I think Chuck is beating the 2005-'06 drum a bit, albeit not technically a la nina...it was cold-neutral.

[raindancewx]

The Euro plume for July, if anything inched a bit warmer for the winter outlook in Nino 3.4.

The years that are similar since 1930 (via reconstructions) for DJF, MAM and AMJ still imply a cold neutral or moderate El Nino to me.

MJJ ONI to DJF ONI has a very strong R-Squared relationship, the oceans don't change much once Jun/Jul are incorporated, so the anomaly in MJJ, *1.388, - 0.05, should produce a very good indication of the DJF value. 

Basically, if MJJ is +0.5C, winter ONI will be around +0.6C, give or take less than 1.0C at about 95% certainty, or give or take 0.7C at 83% certainty.

ONI AMJ: +0.4C ---> (0.4*1.3882)-(0.05) --> +0.5C in DJF formula estimate. 83% chance of winter between -0.1C & +1.3C for DJF, 95% chance of winter between -0.5C & +1.5C

ONI AMJ: +0.5C ---> (0.5*1.3882)-(0.05) --> +0.6C in DJF formula estimate. 83% chance of winter between -0.1C & +1.3C for DJF, 95% chance of winter between -0.4C & +1.6C.

ONI AMJ +0.6C  ---> (0.6*1.3882)-(0.05) --> +0.8C in DJF formula estimate. 83% chance of winter between +0.1C & 1.5C for DJF, 95% chance of winter between -0.2C & +1.8C

 

[nzucker]

On 7/19/2017 at 0:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think Chuck is beating the 2005-'06 drum a bit, albeit not technically a la nina...it was cold-neutral.

That was right after an El Nino though...this year would be 2 years removed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On July 21, 2017 at 0:02 AM, raindancewx said:

The Euro plume for July, if anything inched a bit warmer for the winter outlook in Nino 3.4.

The years that are similar since 1930 (via reconstructions) for DJF, MAM and AMJ still imply a cold neutral or moderate El Nino to me.

MJJ ONI to DJF ONI has a very strong R-Squared relationship, the oceans don't change much once Jun/Jul are incorporated, so the anomaly in MJJ, *1.388, - 0.05, should produce a very good indication of the DJF value. 

Basically, if MJJ is +0.5C, winter ONI will be around +0.6C, give or take less than 1.0C at about 95% certainty, or give or take 0.7C at 83% certainty.

ONI AMJ: +0.4C ---> (0.4*1.3882)-(0.05) --> +0.5C in DJF formula estimate. 83% chance of winter between -0.1C & +1.3C for DJF, 95% chance of winter between -0.5C & +1.5C

ONI AMJ: +0.5C ---> (0.5*1.3882)-(0.05) --> +0.6C in DJF formula estimate. 83% chance of winter between -0.1C & +1.3C for DJF, 95% chance of winter between -0.4C & +1.6C.

ONI AMJ +0.6C  ---> (0.6*1.3882)-(0.05) --> +0.8C in DJF formula estimate. 83% chance of winter between +0.1C & 1.5C for DJF, 95% chance of winter between -0.2C & +1.8C

 

La nina hangover?

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/07/preliminary-profiling-of-winter-2017.html

[raindancewx]

^^ I approach ONI forecasting statistically, because the other stuff can drive you nuts.

So...Warm-Neutral winters happen occasionally, but they're pretty rare relative to cold neutrals, only nine winters of +0.0 to +0.5C in DJF since 1930-31 from the ONI data set I use. Only 1952-53 had even low-ish solar activity on a July-June basis. 

I really don't get why people are on the warm-Neutral / weak-El train, we're already there, and even though the tropics won't change much by DJF, there will be some change. The question is whether the warming reverses or continues. We're certainly ahead of the 2014 warming pace. DJF 2013-14 was -0.5C, but MJJ 2014 was only 0.0C. We've gone from -0.4C in DJF to +0.5C (guessing) for MJJ in 2017. 

ONI for 2014-15 got to +0.6C for DJF...and we're well ahead of the warming pace that year. The SOI did run highly positive briefly this month, but it has gone negative again after its brief three day flip, so that bodes well for warming to continue.

Weather-wise, this seems like a Modoki-El Nino summer out here - the highs are much colder than last year so far, but still not a whole lot of rain. The coolness in the NE this Summer is also consistent with low-solar El Ninos like 2009. August looks pretty cold nationally too, although I don't quite buy the CFS intensity. But that's also consistent with a lot of Modoki El Nino years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

^^ I approach ONI forecasting statistically, because the other stuff can drive you nuts.

So...Warm-Neutral winters happen occasionally, but they're pretty rare relative to cold neutrals, only nine winters of +0.0 to +0.5C in DJF since 1930-31 from the ONI data set I use. Only 1952-53 had even low-ish solar activity on a July-June basis. 

I really don't get why people are on the warm-Neutral / weak-El train, we're already there, and even though the tropics won't change much by DJF, there will be some change. The question is whether the warming reverses or continues. We're certainly ahead of the 2014 warming pace. DJF 2013-14 was -0.5C, but MJJ 2014 was only 0.0C. We've gone from -0.4C in DJF to +0.5C (guessing) for MJJ in 2017. 

ONI for 2014-15 got to +0.6C for DJF...and we're well ahead of the warming pace that year. The SOI did run highly positive briefly this month, but it has gone negative again after its brief three day flip, so that bodes well for warming to continue.

Weather-wise, this seems like a Modoki-El Nino summer out here - the highs are much colder than last year so far, but still not a whole lot of rain. The coolness in the NE this Summer is also consistent with low-solar El Ninos like 2009. August looks pretty cold nationally too, although I don't quite buy the CFS intensity. But that's also consistent with a lot of Modoki El Nino years.

Don't get me wrong...I'm not calling for a warm-neutral as of yet...I could certainly still see a weak el nino. Just speaking of the current consensus.

But I am doubting a la nina or moderate el nino at this point.

The "la nina hangover" language was more just a homage to the sensible appeal of the composites that I utilized.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Dollar is collapsing and Gold might be up. La Nina?

 

[raindancewx]

Honestly, if the oceans were a bit cooler I'd be on board with La Nina too. Just don't think there is enough time for the "five trimesters" below or at -0.5C. We're tracking warmer than last year by ONI, which just barely met the timing threshold for a La Nina. We could easily have 'La Nina-ish' conditions in a cold-Neutral, but it wouldn't be counted as an official La Nina.

July, if you go by this, is going to be around +1.0C warmer by anomaly than last July, which was -0.5C, so a La Nina is running out of time for the winter. Doubt August is meaningfully negative either. At this point, I lean to Neutral, with El Nino as next mostly likely, just because we've already warmed up so much from Dec 16-Feb 17 by ONI.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Honestly, if the oceans were a bit cooler I'd be on board with La Nina too. Just don't think there is enough time for the "five trimesters" below or at -0.5C. We're tracking warmer than last year by ONI, which just barely met the timing threshold for a La Nina. We could easily have 'La Nina-ish' conditions in a cold-Neutral, but it wouldn't be counted as an official La Nina.

July, if you go by this, is going to be around +1.0C warmer by anomaly than last July, which was -0.5C, so a La Nina is running out of time for the winter. Doubt August is meaningfully negative either. At this point, I lean to Neutral, with El Nino as next mostly likely, just because we've already warmed up so much from Dec 16-Feb 17 by ONI.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php

 

[Paragon]

On 7/26/2017 at 3:02 AM, raindancewx said:

^^ I approach ONI forecasting statistically, because the other stuff can drive you nuts.

So...Warm-Neutral winters happen occasionally, but they're pretty rare relative to cold neutrals, only nine winters of +0.0 to +0.5C in DJF since 1930-31 from the ONI data set I use. Only 1952-53 had even low-ish solar activity on a July-June basis. 

I really don't get why people are on the warm-Neutral / weak-El train, we're already there, and even though the tropics won't change much by DJF, there will be some change. The question is whether the warming reverses or continues. We're certainly ahead of the 2014 warming pace. DJF 2013-14 was -0.5C, but MJJ 2014 was only 0.0C. We've gone from -0.4C in DJF to +0.5C (guessing) for MJJ in 2017. 

ONI for 2014-15 got to +0.6C for DJF...and we're well ahead of the warming pace that year. The SOI did run highly positive briefly this month, but it has gone negative again after its brief three day flip, so that bodes well for warming to continue.

Weather-wise, this seems like a Modoki-El Nino summer out here - the highs are much colder than last year so far, but still not a whole lot of rain. The coolness in the NE this Summer is also consistent with low-solar El Ninos like 2009. August looks pretty cold nationally too, although I don't quite buy the CFS intensity. But that's also consistent with a lot of Modoki El Nino years.

I was remarking about that earlier.  The coolness and rain in the East is reminiscent of 2009.  So is the suppression of the current system.

[raindancewx]

Whatever happens in the winter, the Summer temperatures are pretty easily matched using only El Nino years, so I think it's acceptable to think of it as borderline El Nino conditions now even w/ Tropical Tidbits showing Neutral conditions in the last four days in Nino 3.4. I find similar conditions tend to occur at intervals of 11 (solar), 30 and 60 years, (PDO/AMO same phases) so using those intervals, filtered for El Nino, you get the patch of cool in the South, hot anomalies in the interior NW, and near normal conditions for much of the NE/SE. Pattern is dead on, even if the anomalies are off some.

[Paragon]

On 7/30/2017 at 4:10 PM, Angrysummons said:

That really doesn't matter. Basically the upper level profile and positive AO have been el nino like this summer. Big deal. The cold subsurface is already starting to come to the surface and cooling is already evident. Climate models have a tendency to be to warm. the chance of a el nino this winter is very very low.

Yeah I know it'll probably be neutral this winter, but that doesn't mean we won't see a ridge-west/trough-east pattern this winter.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

watch it happen

[raindancewx]

Euro plume from July verified on the high side again for Nino 3.4. Bit of a drop off in the monthly data, +0.6C to +0.5C or so. Last July was -0.5C, the first month of the July-Jan La Nina. SOI has settled for the last few days into what I'd call cold-neutral territory, +0 to +8.

ONI / monthly Nino 3.4 values for July should be out this week. European plume for August should be out this week too. Canadian has gone to a Neutral DJF for ONI, which looks fine if steady cooling continues. August ONI has been running at +0.2C so far.

[raindancewx]

ONI value for AMJ was adjusted down to +0.4C, with the MJJ value coming in at +0.3C. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

The July (monthly) Nino 3.4 reading came in at +0.4C (+0.9C over last July). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php

Best matches to this year using DJF, MAM, AMJ, MJJ conditions +/-0.2C are easily 1932 - a cold Neutral, and 1963 - a moderate El Nino.

In the meantime, the SOI index just crashed to -16.21 today, which means in a few days the Nino 3.4 should warm a bit. That's the biggest negative since July 12th.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is a better lagging indicator than the surface, SOI, I think it may even lead kelvin and rosby waves.

[raindancewx]

We're in the yellow highlighted area in the chart I made - since +0.3 is equidistant from +0.1 and +0.5.

If you center MJJ ONI years, +/-0.2C and then look at what happened, the La Nina last year was still +0.1C in MJJ, but it fit the exception pattern of positive ONI going to La Nina late because it was coming off a huge El Nino winter.

The positive ONI MJJ years that have turned into La Ninas were all immediately after El Nino winters, 2016, 2005, 1995, 1983, 1942 - all +0.0 or higher in MJJ and all immediately after long-duration/intense El Ninos. There are quite a few close misses though, 1931, 1932, 1944, 1947, 1961, 1966, 1980, that were +0.1 to 0.5C in MJJ, and ended up between -0.4 to +0.4 without really being El Nino / La Nina.

I'm leaning towards +0.0C to -0.2C for DJF, with maybe a peak of -0.2C to -0.3C in OND or NDJ.  JJA looks like it will be -0.1 to +0.1 at this point. So first real shot at meaningful negative is JAS - and July was +0.4C on the monthly Nino 3.4 page I linked to a while ago.

1932 is really the closest year by ONI, and in a more holistic sense, sequentially: 1929-30 was a borderline El Nino (2014), 1930-31 was a big El Nino (2015), 1931-32 (2016) was a borderline La Nina/cold Neutral, 1932-32 would be this year, a cold-Neutral. 

The sequence in the 1980s isn't bad either, 1986-87 El Nino, 1987-88 El Nino, 1988-89 La Nina, 1989-90 Neutral.

I also like the 1940s: 1940-41 El Nino, 1941-42 El Nino, 1942-43 La Nina, 1943-44 Neutral, but cold Neutral. The solar cycle in the 1929-1932 sequence is pretty close to now if you look, and unlike the 1980s it had the warm AMO too, so that's why I'd been saying El Nino or Cool Neutral. There are sequences of El->La->El that are close too, 1963-64, 1964-65, 1965-66, and of course 2004-05, 2005-06, 2006-07.