Plans for the Great American Eclispe, Aug 21, 2017

[gman]

More details on the event at Furman University. http://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2017/08/10/furman-plans-solar-eclipse-bash-whole-family/549091001/

[Disc]

I'll be in Roanoke for this. Max of 91% here. Totality would be cool, though.

[EmersonGA]

I'm taking off at 11 to high tail it back to pick up the fam.   We plan on taking back roads and forest surface roads to the east side of blue ridge.  I'm hoping most people are too unfamiliar with the gravel roads.  My house is in the 99% but I can't help traveling to the full when it's that close. 

[LithiaWx]

On 8/4/2017 at 0:03 AM, Tyler Penland said:

You should come to Clarkesville, GA. We've only got 1m43s of totality but Rabun County, GA is going to be 100% packed. There's only a handful of roads up there to choose from and EVERYBODY will be on them. There's really only one way in and out of Tiger.

I found a cheap hotel in Hartwell, GA.  1hr40s totality at the hotel. I'll end up making a move towards the center in the AM. 

[Juliancolton]

I'm gonna try my best to stay over 2m of totality if at all possible. My hotel is right at the centerline with 2m34s, but I'm going in with the expectation of roaming around in search of clear skies.

[Kennethb]

I will be heading from Baton Rouge to Atlanta where my sister lives.  On Monday we will head out early for Simpsonville which is a few miles southeast of Greenville.  Ifi the GFS is trending correctly and that is a crapshoot, there would be a tropical cyclone off the SE coast which might draw in some dryer air.  Though we are getting closer to the true resolution still not in the range just yet.  Any thoughts on with the reduction of solar radiation that cumulus clouds might start to wane during the afternoon, perhaps increasing chances of less cloud cover and less chance of convective showers? 

[KChuck]

15 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

I found a cheap hotel in Hartwell, GA.  1hr40s totality at the hotel. I'll end up making a move towards the center in the AM. 

I'm coming there for an hour of totality!!!     I'm glad I don't make any tyops!

 

5 hours ago, Kennethb said:

I will be heading from Baton Rouge to Atlanta where my sister lives.  On Monday we will head out early for Simpsonville which is a few miles southeast of Greenville.  Ifi the GFS is trending correctly and that is a crapshoot, there would be a tropical cyclone off the SE coast which might draw in some dryer air.  Though we are getting closer to the true resolution still not in the range just yet.  Any thoughts on with the reduction of solar radiation that cumulus clouds might start to wane during the afternoon, perhaps increasing chances of less cloud cover and less chance of convective showers? 

 

[Tyler Penland]

18 hours ago, Kennethb said:

I will be heading from Baton Rouge to Atlanta where my sister lives.  On Monday we will head out early for Simpsonville which is a few miles southeast of Greenville.  Ifi the GFS is trending correctly and that is a crapshoot, there would be a tropical cyclone off the SE coast which might draw in some dryer air.  Though we are getting closer to the true resolution still not in the range just yet.  Any thoughts on with the reduction of solar radiation that cumulus clouds might start to wane during the afternoon, perhaps increasing chances of less cloud cover and less chance of convective showers? 

That's actually an interesting thought. I know surface temps can drop up to 20º or so in the path of totality which would screw mightily with any instability. Don't know exactly how much affect that would have on clouds given the short duration. 

The 12z Euro had a mess across the region which would nullify all of this anyways. 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

That's actually an interesting thought. I know surface temps can drop up to 20º or so in the path of totality which would screw mightily with any instability. Don't know exactly how much affect that would have on clouds given the short duration. 

The 12z Euro had a mess across the region which would nullify all of this anyways. 

Yeah ever since last Monday I've been hearing clouds may be a problem from Missouri to South Carolina.

But sometimes you can luck out.  A few years back we had an annular eclipse in the middle of the day and it was overcast most of the time, but the sun peaked through the clouds at just the right time to get a good view- about 90% of totality. I actually looked through 10x50 binoculars for about 10 seconds lol.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/11/2017 at 10:46 PM, Juliancolton said:

I'm gonna try my best to stay over 2m of totality if at all possible. My hotel is right at the centerline with 2m34s, but I'm going in with the expectation of roaming around in search of clear skies.

I imagine the 4/8/2024 eclipse will be a lot easier to chase and probably a better chance at clear skies too.  I'm already booking a hotel room up in Watertown for that, going right up I-81!

[cbmclean]

On 8/7/2017 at 3:12 PM, griteater said:

I think technically she is asking to reschedule the moon, which as we know is much less difficult.

[Juliancolton]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I imagine the 4/8/2024 eclipse will be a lot easier to chase and probably a better chance at clear skies too.  I'm already booking a hotel room up in Watertown for that, going right up I-81!

Better weather in April? Doubtful. I'd love a quick 3-4 hour drive to western NY but I'll probably end up chasing in Texas for the best wx prospects.

[yotaman]

Current forecast looks wet from Tenn. eastward all the way to the coast.

[jburns]

9 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Current forecast looks wet from Tenn. eastward all the way to the coast.

We only need the right two minutes of sun. It's a bit early to start worrying. Hell, even one little innocent cumulus could cover the sun at just the wrong time on an otherwise cloud free day. It will be a crap shoot.

[eyewall]

Looking like sh!te at the moment:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/south-carolina/total-cloud-coverage/20170821-1800z.html

[Juliancolton]

40 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Looking like sh!te at the moment:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/south-carolina/total-cloud-coverage/20170821-1800z.html

Yeah, looking dodgy so far but I've resolved to put it out of my mind for a couple more days. Every eclipse chaser I know has a story about seemingly unassailable overcast breaking up just moments before totality, so I'll keep the faith even if it continues to look unsettled by the weekend.

Also, since we're staying along the shores of the big lakes, we'll have at least some advantage in the event of a fairly dense Cu field...

[Sparky]

I got lucky and made a late booking in Laurens, SC.   2:30 duration at the hotel.  8 miles SW as the crow flies is the center line at 2:37.  May try to make a move on Monday to the center, or if traffic is iffy just relax at the motel.  So stoked.

[buckeyefan1]

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Looking like sh!te at the moment:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/south-carolina/total-cloud-coverage/20170821-1800z.html

The portals ftw!  

[FallsLake]

From RAH:

Saturday onward: Forecast confidence decreases significantly for
this time frame. The approaching cold front moves into Central NC on
late Friday night into Saturday, where it could stall into early
next week as the parent low moves off to the northeast and the upper
level trough deamplifies. For now, expect convection to be diurnally
driven and primarily along the surface boundary. Highs will steadily
decrease through the period, into the mid 80s by Tuesday. Lows will
also exhibit a downward trend, into the upper 60s and low 70s by
Monday and Tuesday nights.

Eclipse Forecast: Taken with a grain of salt given that this is
still several days away, expect partly cloudy skies and chances for
showers and storms over Central NC. Better chances for clouds and
rain farther south and in proximity to the surface boundary.
 

[griteater]

Euro has a 594dm ridge developing over the SE Sunday into Monday....that should yield at least some level of hope for some sunny / partly sunny areas during the eclipse.

[nrgjeff]

It is a gorgeous 594 ridge, but if dews are 72+ Cu will still pop. Hoping the slower heating in partial phases reduces some Cu. If the clouds are not too vertical yet, partial phases could save. If that boundary lurking verifies, absolutely stay away from it regardless of heights. Might favor valleys if one can't get on a wide lake. Higher elevation usually means more Cu. Any morning valley fog should be long gone, giving valleys the advantage by afternoon.

[eyewall]

Obviously one Cu can do you in but it is definitely looking a little more optimistic today.

[FallsLake]

13 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Obviously one Cu can do you in but it is definitely looking a little more optimistic today.

RAH actually took a step towards more clouds.

With the upper trough pulling away and zonal or broad cyclonic flow
left in its wake, the sfc boundary and moisture pool gets left
behind across the Carolinas for early next week, thus continuing the
daily risk for showers/tstms Monday and perhaps Tuesday, and also
elevating the risk for the presence of clouds during the eclipse.
 

 

[Avdave]

From CAE

 

[Avdave]

Wow the Holiday Inn Express jacked their prices up from last week. It was 999 for sunday night then dropped to 990, now up to 100 dollars for Sunday night.

The candlewood suites is new one that has jacked up their rates as well.  Both are in Sumter, SC

 

Just a little bit of price gouging going on here.

 

 

[LithiaWx]

Tip for anyone still trying to book at hotel :

 

Look at the small towns along the totality path.  Find a hotel that doesn't have a website.  Any hotel with a website goes to sites like Expedia and are 100% booked.  I found one a week ago that still had rooms left in Hartwell, GA 

[mackerel_sky]

2 hours ago, Avdave said:

Wow the Holiday Inn Express jacked their prices up from last week. It was 999 for sunday night then dropped to 990, now up to 100 dollars for Sunday night.

The candlewood suites is new one that has jacked up their rates as well.  Both are in Sumter, SC

 

Just a little bit of price gouging going on here.

 

 

Hang em!

[Avdave]

2 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Tip for anyone still trying to book at hotel :

 

Look at the small towns along the totality path.  Find a hotel that doesn't have a website.  Any hotel with a website goes to sites like Expedia and are 100% booked.  I found one a week ago that still had rooms left in Hartwell, GA 

There are still rooms available in Charleston, SC that have websites and still have some vacancies.

[a5ehren]

FFC is pegging high uncertainty for Monday still:

Quote

All eyes are now on Monday, August 21st when the Eclipse is set to cross the SE during the afternoon hours. As the surface high moves off the mid-Atlantic, this will usher in moist southerly flow across the region. This is not good for those hoping for clear skies. Both models are still holding on to weak mid-level ridging, although impulses moving NE from a wave of low pressure across the GC region will aid in the formation of convection across the region. The GFS illustrating a bit more upper level support as opposed to the ECM. What does this mean in the end? Well, the pattern is not conducive for mostly clear skies. However, this is a typical summer time pattern across the region. So, viewing the Eclipse is still a potential, between all the building cumulonimbus and convection. One may just have to be at the right place at the right time. There is still a lot of uncertainty at this point. We will continue to update the forecast with new model guidance and hope the mid-level ridge strengthens with surface high pressure slowing its eastward progression.

 

[FallsLake]

It would be funny if somebody paid $1000 for a room and it ended up cloudy.