dmillz25 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: You've got to be kidding me... SREF mean just went from barely an inch to almost 2" Maybe the models over corrected East. They usually do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 53 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: They usually do The 18z NAM kicked back NW a good chunk. It's still not enough NW to bring the crazy numbers that the GFS had less than 2 days ago but it's a significant jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 When you add in the additional wrap around rains on Sunday the NAM is a solid 1-2" for most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 18z GFS not bad, especially East of the city. The LLJ gets cranking a bit too late and so the explosive dynamics hold off until the system reaches 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 With the NAO so low I wouldn't be surprised if it ticks back closer to the coast. I'd go widespread 1-3" inches with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 any more of a shift east on the GFS and many places N and W will have trouble cracking .50 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 the gfes got much wetter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 0z nam is just enough rain to keep people inside this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: the gfes got much wetter. lol Always happens close to an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 GFS is much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 6z nam indicates if you are driving... expect ponding of water of the road...possible flooding in poor drainage areas is a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 Overall guidance trended wetter overnight. The UKMET is the wettest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 The long range experimental HRRR looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 SREF is a tick East and drier, especially West of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 The 12z NAM is going to be NW of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 The NAM comes really close to delivering flakes up near Binghampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 The NAM finally lost that convective blob on the Southeast side of the circulation and that makes a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 The SLP is tucked right into the coast tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Feels like winter with the pbp posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 Closes off at both 925mb and 850mb. Doesn't quite get the 700mb or 500mb centers closed off until well Northeast of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 Heavy rain moves in around 5-6AM and is done by 4-5PM with lighter stuff lingering into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 Lots of wrap around moisture on Sunday. H5 actually closes off in two places, one over Upstate NY and the other in the Gulf of Maine. A strong vort max comes right across the area Sunday with a 120kt jet streak. Winds screaming out of the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 if this verifies we could get small hail sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 Convective feedback issues? The NAM was much weaker with all that convection to the East of the SLP this run which helped keep the track tucked in. The RGEM however keeps that area very intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 RGEM still comes in much wetter than 06z despite that convective appendage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 The GFS shifted about 25 miles Southeast. Unfortunately that's the difference for some areas between a pedestrian 1.25" and double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: RGEM still comes in much wetter than 06z despite that convective appendage. has not the rgem been money at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, nycwinter said: has not the rgem been money at this range? It was way overdone with the rainstorm in late april where most places got around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It was way overdone with the rainstorm in late april where most places got around an inch. it was on the money with the march no blizzard in nyc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 Big East shift on the 12z GEFS again. I guess maybe it's the seesaw back to the East and we'll see a West shift again tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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